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We've done this before but a summary:
We agree:
- Climate change exists and represents a threat.
- that the current tax achieves little/nothing.
Problems with your argument (and the arguments of economics in general):
- You suppose to know all possible outcomes based on a simplified classroom version of game theory modelling. let's not get into the "anything is possible" debate. it's possible we get clean nuclear energy tomorrow too. we simply need to look at the current facts for the, let's say likely outcomes. but, for the record my uni has had several postdocs pulling in multiple millions in consultancy work doing full/large scale economic modelling. i'm sure they'd tell the students (undergrads, honors, phd's, whatever) if the simplified models were fundamentally inaccurate or flawed. the phd's almost never introduce any model or theory without then letting us know what goes on in the real world. undergrads do an entire unit just on game theory.
- You make unfounded assumptions regarding cost/benefits - e.g. the only costs of your hypothetical oil spill worth evaluating are economical, they will be measurable and quantifiable - which is simply not the case. i'd argue that they can't be quantified. i have a serious problem with market intervention in general for that exact reason, but seeing as we're trying to quantify carbon that whole argument needs to be taken up.
- By doing the above you present hypotheses as absolutes, conveniently supporting your conclusions. (as in - the outcomes of a model are hypotheses until empirically supported) this is something we simply disagree on. this is mathematics - which can be proven a priori. BUT. i'd like to cover this with real-world evidence below.
- Your argument for non action is based on a logical fallacy http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/two-wrongs-make-a-right.html. how on earth am i saying two wrongs make a right? i'm saying one right won't correct the other wrong when someone has the motivation to just keep polluting their brains out no matter what we do so it's a waste of time to do so.
i'd like to cover the following two statements together:
that last paragraph: let's say we do pump up the price of coal with a per unit tax. so what?We Disagree:
- Australia's role as the largest exporter of coal (28% of global production) is irrelevant and we have no control over supply and demand. I believe the opposite.
- By doing the above you present hypotheses as absolutes, conveniently supporting your conclusions. (as in - the outcomes of a model are hypotheses until empirically supported)
they're either A: going to get it from somewhere else or B: considering how much is reliant upon coal power, simply pass those prices on to the consumers of the power. who then pass it on to the consumers of their products, and so on and so forth.
from what i've heard the much more likely outcome is A. there are a lot of rumblings about all sorts of shady and many downright illegal dealings between china & various african states or warlords.
to quote a conversation i was having,
now when you consider how much of a clusterfuck a lot of africa is (and the chinese are obviously aware of it and the problems it poses), i initially thought this might lead to a lot of PMC presence and so forth which would make up at least some of the savings of cheaper labor in africa. but then i stopped thinking nice legitimate businessman and started thinking asshole. this lead me to coming up with all sorts of "enemy of my enemy is my friend" dealings and many many more dodgy as hell/downright illegal dealings with it. in fact the chinese could even try and use local africans (even if they're rebel groups) as security. such an arrangement would obviously be of mutual benefit. i'm sure this is something that johnny can cover infinitely better than i can (as all my knowledge about china is pretty much purely economic, he has IR knowledge/knowledge of its history from what i can tell) but we don't need to go too much into this. all i can say is there does appear to be (albeit circumstantial) evidence of this stuff occurring already."I was chatting to my GF's boss (he's Chinese) about this, and he had some interesting views on this (my GF works for a Chinese mining company in Malaysia, and previously a Korean steel company). He said there is a massive push by the Chinese to break the back of the current Australian/Brazilian duopoly. He has mines in Malaysia, China and Indonesia, and has looked at Africa and Australia. He said Africa is going to be hard to mine due to instability of governments and general corruption/violence/crime. The thing in favor of the Chinese in Africa is the fact that they haven't fucked with Africa like the western world has. I've worked in Malaysia and have had to "grease" the wheels once or twice myself.
I'd see the biggest issues revolving around bribing the correct people at the correct time. You'd be spending half your life bribing the correct officials/military commanders/tribes
The Chinese will and do use an enemy of my enemy is my friend. It was actually one of the first things I discussed with my GF's boss. He said that only goes so far though. Many people just see the Chinese as the new westerner who was too slow to get in first. It is actually quite fascinating, but scary at the same time There is HUGE amounts of resources, and once tin pot generals find out about the $$$ invloved, then some of these African countries will suffer even more turmoil!"
what we can do is simply google "china africa mines" and see what we come up with.
http://www.chinaafricarealstory.com/2010/10/more-transparent-chinese-mining-deal-in.html
of particular note is this one for how in depth it goes http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,484603,00.html
then we've got an exploration permit granted by authorities that just weeks before performed a coup against their government, i mean gee, what do you think went on before that happened? chinese gave them money to buy some guns perhaps? http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2010/0329/China-mining-company-causes-unrest-in-Niger
and even the ones with governments are doing some seriously dodgy shit http://www.voanews.com/english/news...ers-at-Zambia-Mine-Go-on-Trial-111195009.html
it's happening. i know a guy that does it day to day which i've quoted above and there's many news articles showing the aftermath. there's your real world examples backing up the model. of particular note is that they're doing this even before the carbon tax is brought in, so the private sector may fuck itself enough before the government adds its bit. or the carbon tax will result in them just upping the ante in africa. maybe the africans will pay the price with lives instead of us with money.
the conspiracy theorist in me is wondering how long before the mining companies start doing the same thing the chinese are.
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