COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

Ackland

chats d'élevage
Like I said, learn some maths and come up with the answer yourself.

Start with y = a(1 + r)^x
How about I start with y = -7E-22x6 + 8E-16x5 - 3E-11x4 - 2E-07x3 - 0.0587x2 + 2746.9x

365431


I am well aware that I am taking the piss with fitting a polynomial trendline but the trend is tending upwards, I've just exaggerated the curvature of the trendline for effect

Disclaimer... Last serious Maths study that I undertook was undergrad 2nd year about...... 18 years ago (shit.. I'm getting old)
 

Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
The USA isn't exponentially growing any more either but has had a 66,000 cases per day 7 day avg for a while now
I'm positive that those USA case numbers are significant undercounts. Testing is still a total shitshow in the states, with the average wait for results over 5 days.

If the error term is consistent then it shows the mask wearing and regional social distancing is having an impact. If it isn't consistent then we will see a step change in Autumn as the true second wave begins.

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Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
How about I start with y = -7E-22x6 + 8E-16x5 - 3E-11x4 - 2E-07x3 - 0.0587x2 + 2746.9x

View attachment 365431

I am well aware that I am taking the piss with fitting a polynomial trendline but the trend is tending upwards, I've just exaggerated the curvature of the trendline for effect

Disclaimer... Last serious Maths study that I undertook was undergrad 2nd year about...... 18 years ago (shit.. I'm getting old)
Wow an x^6 term. I'm pretty sure they only exist in calculus textbooks.

I did a master in economics, finance and statistics. I also design and run economic models for a living.

If you use the Analysis Toolpak in Excel you would probably get a reasonable OLS formula for that data set. But it would still be a lot less sophisticated and accurate then what the CHO would be using.

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ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
Shhhsssshh.... we may be at the bottom of the hill.

9 News report just through says we had a community transferred case today, though google digging says it was a quarantined 20yr old Vic bloke (who was 100% doing the right thing) that came through on Monday.

365432
 

franco cozzo

Likes Dirt
Sooo the brother of the 2 girls that lied and purposely gave false and misleading information in QLD has now started playing the race card - stating that if the girls were only identified as they are of color and any one else would have been protected from exposure in the media
and it gets worse....
 

mike14

Likes Bikes and Dirt
...looks like somethings looming. shits about to get real....
in the age this morning:
View attachment 365453
If we are keeping supermarkets open that means we need to keep distribution centres, packing plants and wholesalers open, as well as the trucking infrastructure to move all the stuff. People are still going to have to care for the elderly as well.
What real difference is it going to make except that Karen can't go mask-less at Bunnings any more? Old mate who is hosting parties is still going host a party...
 

Nambra

Definitely should have gone to specsavers
Sooo the brother of the 2 girls that lied and purposely gave false and misleading information in QLD has now started playing the race card - stating that if the girls were only identified as they are of color and any one else would have been protected from exposure in the media
Rubbish, isn't it. That hat wearing idiot white woman driving through VIC/NSW border crossings has been outed, as has the woman refusing to mask up at Bunnings.

The people doing the right thing are rightfully calling out fuckwit behaviour, nothing to do with ethnicity. Don't see #BLM protesting out front of the PA hospital...

There were many thousands of people tested in Brisbane's south yesterday, the true extent of their stupidity will soon be known.
 

leitch

Feelin' a bit rrranty
...i guess not many rides left until imminent lockdown. :(
Seems unlikely that exercise exemptions would be rescinded, politically and socially it would be an absolute non-starter to say to people they can't leave the house at all. They only do that shit with poor people in tower blocks.

I'd imagine the "four reasons" will stay the same, but the definition of "essential" as it relates to work and shopping will be significantly tightened, and they may finally put an actual number on what "reasonable" means for exercise - i.e. within your LGA/Council/x km radius from home, and likely restrict it to members from your household only (no "or one person from outside your household").
 

Stredda

Runs naked through virgin scrub
and it gets worse....
I hate how the race card gets pulled in circumstances like this. I does not help the cause one bit and only causes more division.
 
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