Nerfonomics

caad9

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Is there any reason other than 'because' that interest rates weren't eased up last year to give a more gradual slowing period?
It was being called for from every direction

I know everyone knew it was coming but I can sympathise with people who believed the readily available communication.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
How many of these people actually read the statements by the RBA or did they read/listen to the media reports of those statements?

I read this article this morning and there is absolutely no mention of the media's role in interpreting and publishing these statements. I alway though the 2024 date was wildly optimistic but didn't see much in the media talking about it.
It's the old wishful thinking and hearing what you want to hear, probably not a big problem for most until the loans start to relapse to the new rates. A lot of people got drunk on the low interest rate and bought all kinds of toys from equity on their homes that they didn't need, and now they'll be lucky if they get half of what they originally paid.
 

beeb

Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
It's the old wishful thinking and hearing what you want to hear, probably not a big problem for most until the loans start to relapse to the new rates. A lot of people got drunk on the low interest rate and bought all kinds of toys from equity on their homes that they didn't need, and now they'll be lucky if they get half of what they originally paid.
Don't know what you're talking about... (Looks at bikes)
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
Also all of these mortgages were supposedly stress tested by the banks before being granted. We have gone up less than 1.5% and it's panic so what were they stress testing to?
People lie on their loan applications and conditions also change, like a family of 2 turns into a family of 5. When I was in the mining sector, your job was about as stable as a $5 watch, when contracts fell through the first thing you would see is people on their phones trying to cancel all their purchase orders.
 

Litenbror

Eats Squid
People lie on their loan applications and conditions also change, like a family of 2 turns into a family of 5. When I was in the mining sector, your job was about as stable as a $5 watch, when contracts fell through the first thing you would see is people on their phones trying to cancel all their purchase orders.
I guess I'm expecting too much of people's critical thinking skills these days. My main point though is the media's roll in getting this information out to the public yet their lack of responsibility to get it out accurately. For example as property prices ballooned few said the price rises were "crazy, unsustainable, going to come back down" etc but the prices coming down are "crisis, crazy, dangerous etc".
 

beeb

Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
People lie on their loan applications...
I'm going through the pre-approval for a home loan currently, the lady at the bank noted "your expenses seem quite high?". Fark me, I'm a total scrooge! Everyone I know at work (on similar or less pay) has way higher living expenses than me. People must lie their arse off when doing these applications.
 

Chriso_29er

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Got a call out of the blue yesterday by a realestate agent who we looked through a house months ago before deciding the market was just madness and wanted nothing of it. Hadn't heard from him since.

Obviously plenty of other suckers were more important to him over the last few months. He sounded almost desperate on the phone. I politely told him what I think of the current market lol.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Also all of these mortgages were supposedly stress tested by the banks before being granted. We have gone up less than 1.5% and it's panic so what were they stress testing to?
It's built into the assessment process. +2-3% stressed rate. Banks risk positions are covered by LMI on high LVR loans and by equity in sub 80% loans. Realistically, in 99% of cases, the bank can get you out of a house and have it sold before they take a loss. So banks don't give a shit past looking to being responsible in the eyes of the law (the nccp act to be precise).

The panic stations are more to do with the fact that cost of living overall has gone up and not just a rate on the mortgage.

Lenders credit engines don't factor in inflation, just an increase to rates. So while you might be able to afford a 4 or 5% mortgage increase, you haven't been assessed as being able to afford that PLUS a 30% increase to basic necessities and other living expenses.

The models used in credit have always been tuned to get maximum money out the door to as many people as possible while looking responsesible based on the conditions of the day while maintaining some lwvel of justifiable risk mitigation. I expect if the market flops and everyone starts being homeless and banks take huge hits, this might change. Expect royal commission #2.
 
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Squidfayce

Eats Squid
I'm going through the pre-approval for a home loan currently, the lady at the bank noted "your expenses seem quite high?". Fark me, I'm a total scrooge! Everyone I know at work (on similar or less pay) has way higher living expenses than me. People must lie their arse off when doing these applications.
She's comparing you against a HEM benchmark. The HEM benchmarks are actually exceptionally low.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
I'm going through the pre-approval for a home loan currently, the lady at the bank noted "your expenses seem quite high?". Fark me, I'm a total scrooge! Everyone I know at work (on similar or less pay) has way higher living expenses than me. People must lie their arse off when doing these applications.
Fuck oath they do, my brother is headed towards bankruptcy because of it.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Fuck oath they do, my brother is headed towards bankruptcy because of it.
Part of this is as much as the lenders fault as a lying customer. The bar for verification of the information is historically pretty low. Some things are also difficult to verify easily. A common one is not disclosing dependents or under disclosing them. Depending on what documents the bank has asked for or the customer has provided you could be married, single income family and have 5 kids and on paper you're a single, no dependents with a reasonable wage.

You'd get people trying to access equity for a second property and they say zero kids. We'd have a valuer value their home and there's pics of a kids bedroom, toddler toys around the lounge, a copy of toystory DVD on the coffee table.

Banks also use services that aggregate the information in your bank statements into categories to speed things along. These often miss signs of having kids, like regular swim class debits, shopping at osh kosh b'gosh or school fees etc. These have gotten better i understand through.
 

Nambra

Definitely should have gone to specsavers
I'm going through the pre-approval for a home loan currently, the lady at the bank noted "your expenses seem quite high?". Fark me, I'm a total scrooge! Everyone I know at work (on similar or less pay) has way higher living expenses than me. People must lie their arse off when doing these applications.
You shouldn't have told her you were a mountain biker...
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
I guess I'm expecting too much of people's critical thinking skills these days. My main point though is the media's roll in getting this information out to the public yet their lack of responsibility to get it out accurately. For example as property prices ballooned few said the price rises were "crazy, unsustainable, going to come back down" etc but the prices coming down are "crisis, crazy, dangerous etc".
Sometimes it is bad luck, I don't think many expected that the price of living would have gone up so much in such a short amount of time. People need to blame themselves at the end of the day, nobody else to blame hear. If you go to the tabloids for financial advice, nobody can help you. When the government gave money out during the covid period, people went on crazy spending sprees, using their super to buy a home or investments. These things don't pay themselves off like people tend to imagine, let alone unplanned maintenance and repairs.

People live way beyond their means, I've seen it my whole life. When I worked as a mechanic people would always buy cars they couldn't afford the upkeep on and then expect the mechanic to discount their work. One shop I worked for before credit card machines were prevalent in society would give credit, people would turn up with newly installed stereos and mag wheels while paying off their previous bill.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
To be fair, inflation probably wouldn't be what it is if Russia didn't invade Ukraine and the cash rate would have likely remained steady as per the guidance.

Though when it comes to housing, you can sort of understand why people lie to get a loan. The way its been rising in the last decade, there's a real possibility that if they don't, that they would never have a house to call their own. A lot of people who get homes this way do tend to make other concessions in their lives to make sure the mortgage is paid. Statistically people are more likely to pay their mortgage before anything else, even food.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
Part of this is as much as the lenders fault as a lying customer. The bar for verification of the information is historically pretty low. Some things are also difficult to verify easily. A common one is not disclosing dependents or under disclosing them. Depending on what documents the bank has asked for or the customer has provided you could be married, single income family and have 5 kids and on paper you're a single, no dependents with a reasonable wage.

You'd get people trying to access equity for a second property and they say zero kids. We'd have a valuer value their home and there's pics of a kids bedroom, toddler toys around the lounge, a copy of toystory DVD on the coffee table.

Banks also use services that aggregate the information in your bank statements into categories to speed things along. These often miss signs of having kids, like regular swim class debits, shopping at osh kosh b'gosh or school fees etc. These have gotten better i understand through.
Lots of ways to fudge the system, I've got friends that don't pay any child support but buy their kids gifts, and even easier if you run a small business.
 

Asininedrivel

caviar connoisseur
To be fair, inflation probably wouldn't be what it is if Russia didn't invade Ukraine and the cash rate would have likely remained steady as per the guidance.
I'm actually starting to wonder if that was part of or the underlying purpose of the invasion: destabilise world markets, gum up exports of a huge range of stuff from fuel to food, then sit back and watch as the decadent capitalist markets crash and burn and a whole bunch of Africans starve.
 
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