pink poodle
気が狂っている男
Lucky we still have the footballs.
COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?
- Thread starter johnny
- Start date
WHO and plenty of other medical bodies recommend gov’s use the lowest restriction setting as possible to control the virus spread to a manageable level. Elimination would be great but that boat sailed when we hit 700 odd cases a day.. Hence I am now in the sensible ongoing restrictions/ get on with it camp that WHO recommends.. Sydney seems like a reasonable example of it, probably won’t be able to get our cases that low till summer though..
So going to stage 4 = “evil” because the cost (not just $$) to society, and the country, is enormous compared to stage 3. I just don’t think it was worth doing it since we can’t realistically eliminate the virus..
moorey
call me Mia
pink poodle
気が狂っている男
Good point...they will be over too soon. Fortunately there is cricket! We will be safe.
The Duckmeister
Has a juicy midrange
Yeah, everyone will be so bored shitless watching it they'll be comatose thus incapable of going anywhere to spread anything.
pink poodle
気が狂っている男
You don't enjoy watching people hanging out in their PJs squinting at the sky?
moorey
call me Mia
I’m feeling very judged about my WFH routine.
Even legs? New regime of boomers!
Nambra
Definitely should have gone to specsavers
I recall Dan Andrews (or was it Brett Sutton?) saying that stage 3 was going to work, but it would take until Christmas to reduce case counts to manageable levels which was too long. Too many people were already disregarding stage 3 and you’d expect that would only have become more of a problem over an extended 6 month period, protracting stage 3 further.
As @Plankosaurus says, stage 4 appears to be more of a circuit breaker; a wake up call to the idiots to start pulling their heads in - perhaps more so than as a measure to drive down infection rates which were already slowing under stage 3. Arguably the simultaneous increases in stupid behavour with increasing numbers of health worker and aged care cases forced the VIC govt to impose stage 4. It can't be easy as the Premier waking up every day to 10 or 20 more dead people either. You're right that the net benefit (if any) of stage 4 vs stage 3 for the 99% of people doing the right thing is questionable, but the context in which it was imposed seems clear.
Easy for me to comment when I’m not living it, although who knows where QLD will be in 2 weeks. Hope everyone in VIC is doing ok.
Last edited:
cokeonspecialtwodollars
Fartes of Portingale
moorey
call me Mia
glenn1529
Likes Dirt
It’s easy to blame Dan Andrews for so much of this, the guy has got the worst job in Aus at the mo. He’s going to cop it no matter what he does. Can you imagine what he really wants to say to the population? If he speaks up, he’s a dictator. If he keeps quiet, he’s spineless. The guy gets has to eat a shit sandwich on a daily basis.
I moved to Victoria after Dan was elected premier. but based on his actions during this crisis, I’d vote for him at the next. But he may not want it by then...
I moved to Victoria after Dan was elected premier. but based on his actions during this crisis, I’d vote for him at the next. But he may not want it by then...
Stredda
Runs naked through virgin scrub
I agree, I certainly wouldn't want to be in any leaders shoes.
If you impose tough restrictions you are accused of economic destruction, if you don't, you have mismanaged the situation and have been slow to act. It's a loose/loose situation in some cases.
mike14
Likes Bikes and Dirt
Yeah Andrews is on a hiding to nothing, although some of it is self-inflicted (DHHS & EMV have people who deal with pandemics (or did as at Aug 2018), why aren't they giving update briefs?).
I'd still really like to know whether the difference between NSW/QLD and Vic is just 'luck' or something else.
We in Vic saw the virus escape from the hotels, spread like wildfire and we've barely been able to contain it since, even with Stage 3 and 4 lockdown.
NSW had the outbreaks at pubs/hotels but it just fizzled out despite not much in the way of extra protective measures.
QLD has had spot fires but like NSW basically no community transmission while not implementing much in the way of restrictions.
yes, we've got groups in Vic who refuse to wear masks, don't social distance, log 2.5hr bike rides etc, but the other States have all that plus more (see the kebab shop in the Valley video) without any negative effects
I'd still really like to know whether the difference between NSW/QLD and Vic is just 'luck' or something else.
We in Vic saw the virus escape from the hotels, spread like wildfire and we've barely been able to contain it since, even with Stage 3 and 4 lockdown.
NSW had the outbreaks at pubs/hotels but it just fizzled out despite not much in the way of extra protective measures.
QLD has had spot fires but like NSW basically no community transmission while not implementing much in the way of restrictions.
yes, we've got groups in Vic who refuse to wear masks, don't social distance, log 2.5hr bike rides etc, but the other States have all that plus more (see the kebab shop in the Valley video) without any negative effects
Ultra Lord
Hurts. Requires Money. And is nerdy.
Everyone in sydney hates each other so social distancing happens naturally.
mike14
Likes Bikes and Dirt
Good to know everyone is Sydney is basically me
moorey
call me Mia
Every one in Aus hates them too.
@mike14 I think that 1, NSW got to see what happened to Vic, and 2, ‘if’ climate plays any part, it could have helped. I’ve seen good cases for both the yes/no on that one. It certainly isn’t helping warm US states currently, but I think the horse had bolted already.
leitch
Feelin' a bit rrranty
I doubt you'd ever be able to define it neatly, but I do think luck is/was a big part of it. Melb/VIC really was the first place to have flare ups/outbreaks post the national lockdowns of March and April. At that point, the rhetoric was all about re-opening, restarting the economy etc, and about how "we will have outbreaks but we'll manage them blah blah". There was no real metric or model, however, for what constituted an outbreak, and what level of response was proportionate.
So, cases started popping up and numbers were "manageable". We were told they were just the result of migrant families in outer suburbs getting together post-lockdowns and spreading some contagion amongst each other. Containable and definable. Apparently. Everyone else got a free pass to say "well that's not me" and go along their merry way.
Cases kept rising. Political pressure was still to reopen, so the Vic gov rolled the dice and tried for some postcode-specific lockdowns, which was also something widely advocated in the media during lockdown #1 as a strategy for long-term contagion management. Maybe it would have worked but it didn't happen until cases were up around 60-80/day by which point the horse had already bolted given ~10 day incubation. Stage 3 didn't happen til cases were ~150/day. At that point, contact tracers are trying to contact ~1000 people per day, and the backlog only increases exponentially as daily cases continued to rise.
Basically, NSW/Qld got to learn from Vic's mistakes.
In addition, they've been much better at communications. Every time there's a confirmed case outside quarantine in Qld, they publish a list of places that person has been. Everyone else can quickly look and see where the COVID-positive person has been and when and crosscheck with their own movement to determine whether they should go and get tested. Obviously this is basically impossible to do when you have 700 cases/day like VIC had, but we should have been told much more about cases and hotspots and movement back when it was 15/day. One of the employees at my local Woolworths tested positive a month or so ago - I got an email from Woolies because I'd shopped there previously and scanned my stupid points card thing to say there had been a positive test, the shop had been deep cleaned and if you've been at the shop in x period you should monitor yourself for symptoms/get a test (I hadn't been there). Conversely, there was no comms from DHHS about it.
nathanm
Eats Squid
The Guy made himself a giant pile of Shit Sandwiches therefore he should chow down whole heartedly.
From an outsiders perspective, he appears to be continually dodging responsibility and avoiding questioning. Typical politician desperately clinging onto his own job whilst normal people get sick and die, which he is either directly or indirectly responsible for through his own decisions and directions and the people he's appointed around him. Its absolutely disgusting to hear about the mistakes made and continue to be made, yet not a single person in the government has lost their job or even appear to have been punished.
Probably best Andrews doesn’t say what he thinks because he went off half cocked at people not self isolating, claiming 1 in 4 weren’t self isolating.. Which turned out to be complete bollocks. Second tweet ain’t that great for public confidence from the guy who presents the national ABC covid data..
