COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
In construction, people are trying to cancel out of fear. Mostly first home buyers. Plus all the jobs losses playing havoc on pending settlements across the state. Banks asking any with pending formals if they still have work etc.

Flip side: construction costs will jump heavily. Trades making up lost income, materials with the dollarn drop will jump and a flood of people returning will see a spike. Investors are all in, cashing in on sub 500k properties ready to sell later on.. Firb purchases also through the roof..
Cheers mate, firb purchases are very interesting init?.. Dunno how the investors pile in will work out later in that price bracket.. That is the hotspot for unemployment.. Sounds like there is some buyers around with balls of steel. Hopefully you can keep making a buck from them..
 

Litenbror

Eats Squid
In construction, people are trying to cancel out of fear. Mostly first home buyers. Plus all the jobs losses playing havoc on pending settlements across the state. Banks asking any with pending formals if they still have work etc.

Flip side: construction costs will jump heavily. Trades making up lost income, materials with the dollarn drop will jump and a flood of people returning will see a spike. Investors are all in, cashing in on sub 500k properties ready to sell later on.. Firb purchases also through the roof..
@Sethius an honest question. Would you wait right now or give the market a go? As a first home buyer, in Canberra, with a deposit for roughly 500-600k. Im debating getting my ducks lined up and ready to pull the trigger or should I wait and see where this shit storm lands?

As someone who is inside the industry it would be nice to hear an unvarnished opinion, happy to take it to pm as I understand opinions about this kind of thing need to be handled carefully.
 

Nambra

Definitely should have gone to specsavers
Foreign Investment Review Board. Foreign investors coming to fire sale Australia.

I reckon the government will stop these sorts of shenanigans. Anyone see Pauline Hanson’s open letter to the PM on this very topic?
 

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
@Sethius an honest question. Would you wait right now or give the market a go? As a first home buyer, in Canberra, with a deposit for roughly 500-600k. Im debating getting my ducks lined up and ready to pull the trigger or should I wait and see where this shit storm lands?

As someone who is inside the industry it would be nice to hear an unvarnished opinion, happy to take it to pm as I understand opinions about this kind of thing need to be handled carefully.
I have cash waiting as well for a new family home, not first timer though.. I am not going to pass financial advice on, all I can say is all the big fund managers are not investing in property. They are sitting in cash, waiting.. The property cycle is slow and with the banks giving a 6 month reprieve it will be a while before we will work out the damage.. Like everything in the world there is no way the property market can hold up in the current conditions..
 

Sethius

Crashed out somewhere
@Sethius an honest question. Would you wait right now or give the market a go? As a first home buyer, in Canberra, with a deposit for roughly 500-600k. Im debating getting my ducks lined up and ready to pull the trigger or should I wait and see where this shit storm lands?

As someone who is inside the industry it would be nice to hear an unvarnished opinion, happy to take it to pm as I understand opinions about this kind of thing need to be handled carefully.
I don't know the Canberra market well enough, but I'll be going again where I'm currently building for a few reasons. Cbds wouldn't be my choice at the moment. Is it about having a room over your head and long term choice (with rates so low, my recent buy is cheaper than my current rent.) or is all about returns, numbers and making a buck?

Cheers mate, firb purchases are very interesting init?.. Dunno how the investors pile in will work out later in that price bracket.. That is the hotspot for unemployment.. Sounds like there is some buyers around with balls of steel. Hopefully you can keep making a buck from them..
Plenty of buyers, and oddly it's very heavily towards medium density this month. The younger generations desire for any of yard has to be at an all time low. And the older downsizers are going mortgage free.

What I do find interesting is Simonds share price has more than halved.

There's got to be alot of small builders go under if construction goes off line. I've worked out and about the last 2 days and it's only one demographic coming out to play.

Our sister company who go for 600-800k aren't hitting the numbers we are. Yet they broke records of 120 for the month before this all happened.

Firb was mildly surprising, makes me question what's going on the ground over there.
 
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Sethius

Crashed out somewhere
I have cash waiting as well for a new family home, not first timer though.. I am not going to pass financial advice on, all I can say is all the big fund managers are not investing in property. They are sitting in cash, waiting.. The property cycle is slow and with the banks giving a 6 month reprieve it will be a while before we will work out the damage.. Like everything in the world there is no way the property market can hold up in the current conditions..
6 month reprieve and record low rates. Sounds like a good way to stall the 12 months captain gains issue and come out nicely into a possibly hot market. It's all speculation but plenty are rolling the dice for the quick flip. If land developers stop, titled blocks will surge in price as people seek certainty. Anything over 600K is bound to drop as those with bigger budgets play it safe and don't push as hard as they normally do. The market swings here in Vic around that number.
 

Nambra

Definitely should have gone to specsavers
I have cash waiting as well for a new family home, not first timer though.. I am not going to pass financial advice on, all I can say is all the big fund managers are not investing in property. They are sitting in cash, waiting.. The property cycle is slow and with the banks giving a 6 month reprieve it will be a while before we will work out the damage.. Like everything in the world there is no way the property market can hold up in the current conditions..
You'd be a brave soul to be buying a house at present. We'll hear something in the next few days about further support measures to help protect residential tenants, landlords and so on. Canberra is a different market to the rest of Australia too with all the pubes that live there having relatively protected employment. Impossible to predict the future when it's literally day by day at the moment.

6 month reprieve and record low rates. Sounds like a good way to stall the 12 months captain gains issue and come out nicely into a possibly hot market. It's all speculation but plenty are rolling the dice for the quick flip. If land developers stop, titled blocks will surge in price as people seek certainty. Anything over 600K is bound to drop as those with bigger budgets play it safe and don't push as hard as they normally do. The market swings here in Vic around that number.
Do you think a 6 month reprieve would apply to someone purchasing who can service the mortgage? I don't think the banks will be giving half year holidays to people that aren't experiencing financial hardship.
 

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Foreign Investment Review Board. Foreign investors coming to fire sale Australia.

I reckon the government will stop these sorts of shenanigans. Anyone see Pauline Hanson’s open letter to the PM on this very topic?
The concern is that the firb are useless. Recents stats showed 99.99% of firb requests are granted except when it comes to a huge infrastructure deal that is in the foreign interest and the pollies step in..
And have no doubt, the libs will sell Australia off to the highest bidder..
 

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
6 month reprieve and record low rates. Sounds like a good way to stall the 12 months captain gains issue and come out nicely into a possibly hot market. It's all speculation but plenty are rolling the dice for the quick flip. If land developers stop, titled blocks will surge in price as people seek certainty. Anything over 600K is bound to drop as those with bigger budgets play it safe and don't push as hard as they normally do. The market swings here in Vic around that number.
Yep good points, My slant was more talking about way over 600k in Melb more like established 1-2m market which is heavily reliant on capital gains.. That market won’t come out unscathed..
 

Nambra

Definitely should have gone to specsavers
The concern is that the firb are useless. Recents stats showed 99.99% of firb requests are granted except when it comes to a huge infrastructure deal that is in the foreign interest and the pollies step in..
And have no doubt, the libs will sell Australia off to the highest bidder..
Isn't more to do with the low hurdles that FI's need to clear? The FIRB can't just say no because they think it's a bad deal, it's just that the criteria are flawed. But you're right, the Libs aren't likely to toughen things up either, particularly if they're trying to resuscitate the economy.
 

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
6 month reprieve and record low rates. Sounds like a good way to stall the 12 months captain gains issue and come out nicely into a possibly hot market.
And again, there are some investors with balls of steel. If this virus doesn’t go away, they lose everything..
Great info mate this will be interesting to watch..
 

Sethius

Crashed out somewhere
Yep good points, My slant was more talking about way over 600k in Melb more like established 1-2m market which is heavily reliant on capital gains.. That market won’t come out unscathed..
Yeah that markets in for soem more hurt, back down from the recent fresh records. But Melbournes still relatively cheap compared to London/Wellington/NY etc I think we Aussies forget that sometimes..
 

Sethius

Crashed out somewhere
And again, there are some investors with balls of steel. If this virus doesn’t go away, they lose everything..
Great info mate this will be interesting to watch..
When we stop buying projects up to develop for Medium density in the greenfields then I'll be nervous. We play with cash, if this stops then I'll be more nervous as I know they'll be holding the war chest tight for good reason.

Edit: work must be strong, just released some pretty wild guarantees for clients as we speak!
 

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Isn't more to do with the low hurdles that FI's need to clear? The FIRB can't just say no because they think it's a bad deal, it's just that the criteria are flawed. But you're right, the Libs aren't likely to toughen things up either, particularly if they're trying to resuscitate the economy.
Yes kinda of, it’s not totally the firb’s fault they are useless, the criteria they work within is crap.. Mind you they know this and have not done a thing to force change.
Rant coming..
Apart from the casinos, realestate is still not subject to international money laundering laws that apply to every other financial system in australia.. The firb laws are a joke, just wander down to a melb or syd auction in an affluent area, to watch 18 year old international student buy a 2-3 million dollar property to live in while studying.. And no i’m not exaggerating.. It is rampant especially after Hong Kong tried to free itself from China. (Which all seems so looong ago..)
 

Sethius

Crashed out somewhere
Melbourne is not London/Wellington/NY.
Didn't say it was these places, but in retrospect long term I feel personally melbourne still has some way to go. Getting plenty of kiwis coming over and feeling reliefed at the pricing against Wellington. And we're lucky you can still get land within an hr of the cbd.
 
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