COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

[Daniel Hale]

I think Italy would have noticed the 1000 deaths a day with dying patients choking up the hospital hallways. Not exactly a normal week...

i’m glad you bringup italy, there death rate per cases is extremely high, many standard deviations away from the US or worldwide numbers, look at the data below..they roughly have 35000:700000 deaths, roughly 5% or world deaths, yet on total numbers of cases 250k:20M they have only had about 1.2% of cases, their da=earth rate is much worse, for a country which is not third world, and i admit they do have a slightly older population than many countries, there slightly older average age compared with other countries doesn’t appear to account for this large discrepancy in the numbers of sars-cov2 death rates
any insights into their numbers?

 

[Daniel Hale]

So by restricting movements we've (they've) preveneted "normal" deaths which have since been replaced by covid deaths therefore had we not restricted movements normal deaths would still occur. Adding to them an exponential growth in numbers of covid deaths. Your logic and data shows that what is being done is working and saving peoples lives despite the same amount of people dying.

yes it’s a fact people die all the time, when i refer to normal in this sense i’m talking about normal numbers of deaths, so our normal flu deaths, statistically speaking have not occurred, and we have experienced a smaller number of sars-cov2 deaths (compared with likely flu deaths) ..likely due to the fact we have also had restrictive movement measures in place...we don’t have any data on -if flu causes 2 in100 people who are infected to die, sars-cov2 also causes 2 in 100 deaths...reason being we have never ever tested influenza virus infections..we have just put the death down to flu

so yes we are saving lives, be it sars-cov2 or due to influenza virus, but it’s just as likely the group of people who are dying will die of pneumonia next month or next year, or catch some other virus and die, yet it is not reported the same way

yes the data shows in Oz less people are dying, but can we stay locked up through 2021/2022 to prevent sars-cvo2 deaths? why do we not lockdown when a bad flu seasons kills 1000’s? my point matt is heaps of people die every day, the numbers are staggering, when it’s thrown in your face that coronavirus kills 1000’s, it highlights and people are shocked, truth is 100,000’s of people die somewhere in the world every day from cancer to bee stings, shark attacks, meningocccal etc many of the infectious deaths, due to a pathogen are not correctly reported or known, about 25% of them.

when i worked for a big pathology lab, our success rate on govt sanctioned mandatory pathogen identification was about 50% in the microbe dept, we only correctly id’s the bug half the time, other labs reported the sane rough rates every year the best labs achieved about 70%, worst 30%

 

[CHEWY]

TL;DR

 

[Daniel Hale]

Well it was around that time they installed the 5G towers.

as for 5G, i’m actually in favour of letting huawei build/install towers, they are just providing the hardware, if our providers aren’t smart enough to protect our data, then by all means the let the chinese have it, the speed increase for the majority will be well worth the risks

 

[leitch]

actually china tried to keep this quiet, one dr in particular campaigned to notify wider of the respiratory syndrome, he has since died -whether the chinese govt had anything to do with his death is pure speculation.

did you read the article ? can you restate to me what you think my point is?

“Doctors in China” and “China” are not the same thing. Doctors in China discovered and alerted authorities to a novel virus, whether those authorities fucked around and tried to keep it quiet for a while or not is irrelevant to the fact that it was identified.

Yes I looked at the article. I was referring to your insinuation that the prevalence of respiratory infections and historical inability to distinguish novel strains means that we “wouldn’t have known” about C19 if not for being “told” because we would have just ascribed those deaths to Flu/Pneumonia/other.

Again; the reality is that C19 causes statistically significant additional deaths to those “expected” under normal conditions (including from flu/other respiratory infections).

Maybe the easiest way to portray it is this. Even allowing for increased mortality in non-C19 conditions due to system stress/hospital avoidance, the numbers are huge - and even in the worst case/unlikely scenario that the numbers are inflated by secondary deaths due to systemic stress then it still counts as a tragedy whether it was a direct C19 death or not. These are for the respective 11-week “peak” periods of C19 pandemic.

 

[Daniel Hale]

Maybe the easiest way to portray it is this. Even allowing for increased mortality in non-C19 conditions due to system stress/hospital avoidance, the numbers are huge - and even in the worst case/unlikely scenario that the numbers are inflated by secondary deaths due to systemic stress then it still counts as a tragedy whether it was a direct C19 death or not. These are for the respective 11-week “peak” periods of C19 pandemic.

good points, buy i’d like to see where the info comes from as to excess deaths, and those numbers of spain/italy/uk compared with say germany/france/sweden (who;s model of dealing with it i favour)
for instance re death reporting, a chronic cancer patient contacts sars-cov2, their body can not deal with it & die, statistically it is reported as coronavirus death, is that what really killed them, no -the fact they battled cancer for x years and were elderly is the major cause of their death, the coronavirus just tipped them over the edge

 

[Daniel Hale]

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[Daniel Hale]

“

Maybe the easiest way to portray it is this. Even allowing for increased mortality in non-C19 conditions due to system stress/hospital avoidance, the numbers are huge - and even in the worst case/unlikely scenario that the numbers are inflated by secondary deaths due to systemic stress then it still counts as a tragedy whether it was a direct C19 death or not. These are for the respective 11-week “peak” periods of C19 pandemic.

View attachment 365733

when quoting excess deaths, it’s important to look at the trend take Italy - they have been treading up in their death rate as a % of population for nearly 10myears, around 0.7-0.8% mortality increase per 1000 population, now a nearly 1% increase per year sounds like nothing compared with your 44000 excess deaths, but if you do the math of 0.8% increase per 1000 population, then realise italy has 60,000 groups of 1000 population their death rate increases show 1000’s of extra people are dying each year for 10 out of the last 10 years

 

[ozzybmx]

The whole of Aus is on tenterhooks, we don't have Vic's restrictions but we're all in this mess together.

Australia as a whole, should be sitting on zero community cases and a handful in quarantine in each state from repatriated citizens.

SA is now the only (cleanish) state that allows essential workers to come and go freely to Vic without quarantining for 2 weeks on return to SA. So SA nurses are travelling to Melb for 2-3 week stints on good rates, then free to return with no quarantine.

All our clusters have been from quarantined fuck ups or exempt workers returning and fluttering around like a social butterfly until their test results come back positive.

Hope we are back to where we were 2 weeks ago but every testing station in Adelaide is double lane'd and 5 hour waits, just seen the Repat hospital line an hour ago, its 1km+ long.

 

[Minlak]

as for 5G, i’m actually in favour of letting huawei build/install towers, they are just providing the hardware, if our providers aren’t smart enough to protect our data, then by all means the let the chinese have it, the speed increase for the majority will be well worth the risks

It is not as simple as that - the data will be siphoned off at a hardware level if supplied by the Chinese - unless we spend the time and money reverse engineering everything we will be compromised - it’s not even just about the data it’s also about them being in a position to control the flow of information if they do desired. If we have to check every chip and piece of hardware we may as well build the stuff ourself

 

[Daniel Hale]

If we have to check every chip and piece of hardware we may as well build the stuff ourself

we’re Australians, and much too lazy to do either

 

[Daniel Hale]

.
SA is now the only (cleanish) state that allows essential workers to come and go freely to Vic without quarantining for 2 weeks on return to SA. So SA nurses are travelling to Melb for 2-3 week stints on good rates, then free to return with no quarantine.

i wasn’t aware this was happening, if it is whoever allowed it should b fired, hence with the melb quarantine security guard fiasco, the only way to help others from getting an infectious agent is to also quarantine the workers, nurses are one of the highest risk groups in all of this—if i had 1 dollar for every infection spread by a nurse, or dr for that matter that we tested in the path lab i’d be a very rich man, and likely b buying every specialized bike, at or over 20K that i could find, then rubbing it in people’s noses about how good they are, i’d certainly add the hardtail yeti to my herd

 

[moorey]

if i had 1 dollar for every infection spread by a nurse, or dr for that matter that we tested in the path lab i’d be a very rich man,

Wait! You’re saying that the people on the front line dealing with infection ever day are more susceptible to being infected themselves? Hold the line while I warn my wife on a 14h shift caring for 3 COVID19 patients in ICU. She needs to hear this.

 

[pink poodle]

In scenarios like @ozzybmx describes, perhaps a shorter quarantine would be acceptable? 5-10 days with a test at each end.

 

[hifiandmtb]

In scenarios like @ozzybmx describes, perhaps a shorter quarantine would be acceptable? 5-10 days with a test at each end.

Vested interest much.

 

[Daniel Hale]

Wait! You’re saying that the people on the front line dealing with infection ever day are more susceptible to being infected themselves? Hold the line while I warn my wife on a 14h shift caring for 3 COVID19 patients in ICU. She needs to hear this.

no what i’m saying is that those workers should b isolated at home, and you say..maybe move to the doghouse for the foreseeable future

secondly i am also saying is that i wouldn’t be letting said nurses come work in vic, then go back to sa with no quarantine

lastly if i was going to keep it real i would say don’t give me the protect our front line worker stuff now, when people have acted little for them in the past...where was my thanks when i was collecting blood from hiv+ patients, or standing around waiting for a Dr to one in a jar cos je was abusing heroine, only to rightly state at his hearing he was consuming several large texas style muffins baked with a copious amount of poppy seeds - as he full well knew that natural opium is indistinguishable by hplc whether it be squeezed from poppy seeds, or the many drugs it is found in. or as you got me started that you havn’t held a baby who convulsed wildly from a routine vaccination, or the infant whose brain fried after a different vaccination

but as she is an icu nurse, she should be at less risk than other nurses, as the patients are not breathing by themselves, she isn’t engaging in conversation with them etc, so she is less likely to pick it up - and i presume she is well gloved when removing tubes etc, though this is a lower risk of infection anyway picking up off an surface/inanimate object.

 

[Daniel Hale]

In scenarios like @ozzybmx describes, perhaps a shorter quarantine would be acceptable? 5-10 days with a test at each end.

definitively, you would have the rna of the virus in your system at 5mdays, so a test would pick up if you’re infected

 

[pink poodle]

Vested interest much.

Only a little, but it isn't a new consideration. I'm not for an open free for all with this. I do think there needs to be a testing and quarantining process, but a swifter system may see better compliance. And better compliance might yield better results.

 

[ozzybmx]

Wait! You’re saying that the people on the front line dealing with infection ever day are more susceptible to being infected themselves? Hold the line while I warn my wife on a 14h shift caring for 3 COVID19 patients in ICU. She needs to hear this.

In scenarios like @ozzybmx describes, perhaps a shorter quarantine would be acceptable? 5-10 days with a test at each end.

I have 100% respect for our nurses and Docs, also the carers in nursing homes on $25 an hour, still going to work every day with the obvious risk.

The nurses and carers from SA have a cash incentive, I believe its x3 wages, a good incentive and great re-entry rules for them... I also respect the fact that our Vic bothers need some help at this shit time.

Tas, NT, WA and QLD have stopped the nurses returning without quarantine... I'm sure the CMO is weighing up the risks but its been the source of 2 of our most prominent clusters in the past 2 weeks. One returned and went back to study FFS... tested positive after visiting 3 schools and numerous food outlets. Maybe 5 days would be sufficient but not allowed to run loose immediately.

 

[franco cozzo]

...cops are ready for todays protest...who heres going??

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1292244175249985536