COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

ozzybmx

call me Cáitín
Derby with a side serve of the spicy cough ;)
We can enter Tassie by driving directly to the boat. This applies right now -


We cant get back into SA at this current time.

SA will have to change the rules to allow us back in as currently, landing in Melbourne and driving straight to the SA border means 2 weeks quarantine.
 

shiny

Go-go-gadget-wrist-thingy
We can enter Tassie by driving directly to the boat. This applies right now -


We cant get back into SA at this current time.

SA will have to change the rules to allow us back in as currently, landing in Melbourne and driving straight to the SA border means 2 weeks quarantine.
We were supposed to have a road map this week but looks like we need to wait. Interesting to see what WA and NT do.
 

rockmoose

Likes Bikes and Dirt
We can enter Tassie by driving directly to the boat. This applies right now -


We cant get back into SA at this current time.

SA will have to change the rules to allow us back in as currently, landing in Melbourne and driving straight to the SA border means 2 weeks quarantine.
What's that? You need me to look after Melrose for the 8 years until you're allowed back?
 

Haakon

Call me Ken, whoreken
Looks like I'll be able to do a run to Victoria soon. As soon as the trailer shop calls and tells me they've been built I'll go down - a shit tonne of errands have built up and havent seen my parents in nearly 2 years. But sure as shit will be keeping it all to a bare minimum and certainly wont be going to any crowded areas...

What could possibly go wrong... Looks like ill be quarantine coming back to Canberra though (oh no, i cant go to the office oh no what a shame...)
 
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ozzybmx

call me Cáitín
What's that? You need me to look after Melrose for the 8 years until you're allowed back?
Too hot in Dec/Jan, we spent 4-5 weeks working on the place last year. It was stinking hot

Looking forward to the Willowie trails opening, they are sensational ! On the lower slopes so faster climbing. Nice gap jumps, creek gaps, doubles and drop offs.

They have really good stuff with the elevation and landscape.

@Ackland will know the exact date but I belive it may be around the 5th November.
 

moorey

Carte d'or what?
death rate increase approx 1%, i can't find figures but i think US loses about 8000-9000 on any given normal day, nearly 3M/ year
Humour me. What’s your actual point? Assuming your numbers are correct, what are you eluding to about Covid death rates. That around 1700 a day in the US don’t really matter? An overall increase of 1% doesn’t take into account that deaths from other causes will be lower over this period, but I still don’t know what your point is? I’m just a gronk, keep it simple.
 

FoxRidersCo

Sanity is not statistical
Humour me. What’s your actual point? Assuming your numbers are correct, what are you eluding to about Covid death rates. That around 1700 a day in the US don’t really matter? An overall increase of 1% doesn’t take into account that deaths from other causes will be lower over this period, but I still don’t know what your point is? I’m just a gronk, keep it simple.
In summary:

Covid hasn't increased the US's annual overall death toll existentially when you factor in all other causes of death like cancer, smoking, fatties eating too much Macca's, road crash fatalities, mass shootings, murders, riders falling off filing cabinets on steep descents, theme park mishaps, surgery complications, riding an eeb, terrorist attacks etc...
 

moorey

Carte d'or what?
In summary:

Covid hasn't increased the US's annual overall death toll existentially when you factor in all other causes of death like cancer, smoking, fatties eating too much Macca's, road crash fatalities, mass shootings, murders, riders falling off filing cabinets on steep descents, theme park mishaps, surgery complications, riding an eeb, terrorist attacks etc...
I don’t think it’s actually his, or your real point though.
 

Daniel Hale

She fid, he fid, I fidn't
I'll see if I can find it, but a long term study of about 227K covid patients found a third of them had at least one ongoing complication from it. That study included a significant vaccinated cohort and found that the prevalence of ongoing complications was roughly equal in the vaxxed or not.
no other virus documented comes close to this 1/3 figure, things like RRV, Q fever, EBV, do have scientifically documented chronic pathologies associated- i think the real number might be in the single digits as for other viruses

Humour me. What’s your actual point? Assuming your numbers are correct, what are you eluding to about Covid death rates. That around 1700 a day in the US don’t really matter? An overall increase of 1% doesn’t take into account that deaths from other causes will be lower over this period, but I still don’t know what your point is? I’m just a gronk, keep it simple.
i’d humour you but either : you’d disregard my point, or you’re not qualified to understand & accept it

death rates rise & fall, several countries like italy have had rises for last

382001
 
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moorey

Carte d'or what?
no other virus documented comes close to this 1/3 figure, things like RRV, Q fever, EBV, do have scientifically documented chronic pathologies associated- i think the real number might be in the single digits as for other viruses


i’d humour you but either : you’d disregard my point, or you’re not qualified to understand & accept it

death rates rise & fall, several countries like italy have had rises for last

View attachment 382001
That wasn’t really your point though.
Either way, that’s actually a significant rise, particularly when death from other causes are generally down.

‘tell me you’re a Covid denier without telling me you’re a Covid denier’
 

Squidfayce

Trigger happy
no other virus documented comes close to this 1/3 figure, things like RRV, Q fever, EBV, do have scientifically documented chronic pathologies associated- i think the real number might be in the single digits as for other viruses

The incidence and co-occurrence within 6 months and in the 3 to 6 months after COVID-19 diagnosis were calculated for 9 core features of long-COVID (breathing difficulties/breathlessness, fatigue/malaise, chest/throat pain, headache, abdominal symptoms, myalgia, other pain, cognitive symptoms, and anxiety/depression).

Among COVID-19 survivors (mean [SD] age: 46.3 [19.8], 55.6% female), 57.00% had one or more long-COVID feature recorded during the whole 6-month period (i.e., including the acute phase), and 36.55% between 3 and 6 months.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
This sounds like a fuckup with your employer more than a covid issue. So if borders have to close for any reason (war for example) then all of these rigs turn into floating bombs? Why is there not enough manpower? Surely the powers that be just aren't paying enough and not making the right arrangements.

Also, doctors and nurses are probably at higher risk from catching covid and dying than the risk of your rig exploding. These people are now in a potentially deadly profession that none of them have signed up for all because a bunch of selfish twats can't wear some minimal PPE and properly keep to themselves for a couple of weeks.
At the risk of mansplaining...

In answer to your first question? Yes. They do turn into floating bombs. Metal objects when surrounded by salt water tend to rust fairly rapidly when not attended to with constant painting, maintenance, parts replacement and other remedial work. You can imagine how much riskier that gets when said metal objects are filled with explosive gases at incredibly high pressures.

Why is there not enough manpower?
1. The oil and gas industry is an international one. Crews come from all over the world. The bloke whose role I wound up in (after being retrenched from my own full-time position in WA at the start of COVID) was actually based in Malaysia. Some of the key personnel we're missing are based in places as far away as the UK and Canada. Even within Australia, interstate travel has become so complicated and requiring so many exemptions that companies are forced to cut back on the amount of applicants because of the amount of hoops that they are required to jump through

2. Those qualified personnel they have managed to get in as replacements also have to quarantine both on the way into work and on the way out. Depending on location of the site and the home address of the person a 3 - 4 week swing offshore may require as much as 4 weeks in quarantine. That means you have a need for almost twice as many workers as per normal because if one bloke is in quarantine and his back-to-back is on leave, then there's nobody actually on the job site. Unfortunately the availability is more like half.

3. The attrition rate is through the roof. Staff used to 2 - 3 weeks away from home at most are spending up to 8 weeks away every trip and if they're coming from states like WA they've also got the added stress of occasional additional spells in home isolation because their home state has decided to play hard ball because of a single positive case in an area where they may just have transited through.

This has an effect in two ways. First off, People just quit, leaving us even more short-handed. Secondly those of us who are left are seriously mentally fatigued and often burnt out. That's not a recipe for success if you're building scaffolds, performing heavy lifts, operating high-pressure equipment, swinging off ropes etc. etc.

Then you can add in all the supply chain issues that are affecting every industry, constant dicking around with flights and schedules, reduced support from the beach because the engineers and admin people are all working-from-home, and for a lot of staff the stress from partners who are having to raise the kids during lockdown alone for months at a time.

It's an absolute fucking shit-show and the general ignorance of most people as to what's happening not just in my industry, but also all the others that are working to ensure that everyone can keep the lights on and still get their mail order bike parts arriving on time, tends to trigger me.
 

Squidfayce

Trigger happy
At the risk of mansplaining...

In answer to your first question? Yes. They do turn into floating bombs. Metal objects when surrounded by salt water tend to rust fairly rapidly when not attended to with constant painting, maintenance, parts replacement and other remedial work. You can imagine how much riskier that gets when said metal objects are filled with explosive gases at incredibly high pressures.

Why is there not enough manpower?
1. The oil and gas industry is an international one. Crews come from all over the world. The bloke whose role I wound up in (after being retrenched from my own full-time position in WA at the start of COVID) was actually based in Malaysia. Some of the key personnel we're missing are based in places as far away as the UK and Canada. Even within Australia, interstate travel has become so complicated and requiring so many exemptions that companies are forced to cut back on the amount of applicants because of the amount of hoops that they are required to jump through

2. Those qualified personnel they have managed to get in as replacements also have to quarantine both on the way into work and on the way out. Depending on location of the site and the home address of the person a 3 - 4 week swing offshore may require as much as 4 weeks in quarantine. That means you have a need for almost twice as many workers as per normal because if one bloke is in quarantine and his back-to-back is on leave, then there's nobody actually on the job site. Unfortunately the availability is more like half.

3. The attrition rate is through the roof. Staff used to 2 - 3 weeks away from home at most are spending up to 8 weeks away every trip and if they're coming from states like WA they've also got the added stress of occasional additional spells in home isolation because their home state has decided to play hard ball because of a single positive case in an area where they may just have transited through.

This has an effect in two ways. First off, People just quit, leaving us even more short-handed. Secondly those of us who are left are seriously mentally fatigued and often burnt out. That's not a recipe for success if you're building scaffolds, performing heavy lifts, operating high-pressure equipment, swinging off ropes etc. etc.

Then you can add in all the supply chain issues that are affecting every industry, constant dicking around with flights and schedules, reduced support from the beach because the engineers and admin people are all working-from-home, and for a lot of staff the stress from partners who are having to raise the kids during lockdown alone for months at a time.

It's an absolute fucking shit-show and the general ignorance of most people as to what's happening not just in my industry, but also all the others that are working to ensure that everyone can keep the lights on and still get their mail order bike parts arriving on time, tends to trigger me.
Don't think that even touches the territory of mansplaining. Pretty informative. thumbs up.

tongue in cheek question though, if you've ordered bike parts online and you're offshore when theyre due to arrive, do you track your parcel? And does it annoy you if its not delivered on time even if you're not going to see it for 3 weeks due to work?
 

Haakon

Call me Ken, whoreken
At the risk of mansplaining...

In answer to your first question? Yes. They do turn into floating bombs. Metal objects when surrounded by salt water tend to rust fairly rapidly when not attended to with constant painting, maintenance, parts replacement and other remedial work. You can imagine how much riskier that gets when said metal objects are filled with explosive gases at incredibly high pressures.

Why is there not enough manpower?
1. The oil and gas industry is an international one. Crews come from all over the world. The bloke whose role I wound up in (after being retrenched from my own full-time position in WA at the start of COVID) was actually based in Malaysia. Some of the key personnel we're missing are based in places as far away as the UK and Canada. Even within Australia, interstate travel has become so complicated and requiring so many exemptions that companies are forced to cut back on the amount of applicants because of the amount of hoops that they are required to jump through

2. Those qualified personnel they have managed to get in as replacements also have to quarantine both on the way into work and on the way out. Depending on location of the site and the home address of the person a 3 - 4 week swing offshore may require as much as 4 weeks in quarantine. That means you have a need for almost twice as many workers as per normal because if one bloke is in quarantine and his back-to-back is on leave, then there's nobody actually on the job site. Unfortunately the availability is more like half.

3. The attrition rate is through the roof. Staff used to 2 - 3 weeks away from home at most are spending up to 8 weeks away every trip and if they're coming from states like WA they've also got the added stress of occasional additional spells in home isolation because their home state has decided to play hard ball because of a single positive case in an area where they may just have transited through.

This has an effect in two ways. First off, People just quit, leaving us even more short-handed. Secondly those of us who are left are seriously mentally fatigued and often burnt out. That's not a recipe for success if you're building scaffolds, performing heavy lifts, operating high-pressure equipment, swinging off ropes etc. etc.

Then you can add in all the supply chain issues that are affecting every industry, constant dicking around with flights and schedules, reduced support from the beach because the engineers and admin people are all working-from-home, and for a lot of staff the stress from partners who are having to raise the kids during lockdown alone for months at a time.

It's an absolute fucking shit-show and the general ignorance of most people as to what's happening not just in my industry, but also all the others that are working to ensure that everyone can keep the lights on and still get their mail order bike parts arriving on time, tends to trigger me.
Not just your industry either, any of the critical infrastructure/services. Good thing we don’t have nukes to keep maintenance up on….
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
tongue in cheek question though, if you've ordered bike parts online and you're offshore when theyre due to arrive, do you track your parcel? And does it annoy you if its not delivered on time even if you're not going to see it for 3 weeks due to work?
Who says they'll have arrived by the time I get home?!

(Seriously, it just took 4 weeks for me to get disposable daily contact lenses sent down from my usual supplier in Sydney. I would have been screwed if I hadn't fortunately been delayed a couple of days in going back to work as Howard Springs doesn't accept personal deliveries)
 

Ackland

Eats Squid
Too hot in Dec/Jan, we spent 4-5 weeks working on the place last year. It was stinking hot

Looking forward to the Willowie trails opening, they are sensational ! On the lower slopes so faster climbing. Nice gap jumps, creek gaps, doubles and drop offs.

They have really good stuff with the elevation and landscape.

@Ackland will know the exact date but I belive it may be around the 5th November.
Next question...
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
Not just your industry either, any of the critical infrastructure/services. Good thing we don’t have nukes to keep maintenance up on….
Yeah, it's across the board. Another big issue affecting a lot of industries is the renewal of qualifications. Certificates like Confined Space Entry, Working At Heights, Use of Breathing Apparatus, First Aid and your Job-Specific technical quals etc. have to be renewed annually or every few years. That's not possible when the training centres are in lockdown or located behind the Iron Curtain in WA.
Obviously some tickets can be renewed via remote learning these days but the vast majority require practical examination using specialised equipment, procedures and supervision.
 
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