FigBo0T
Puts verniers on his headtube
That would mean the source could be anywhere. They're imported from all over Asia and Africa
COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?
- Thread starter johnny
- Start date
This gets back to the point that I made up the page, the data isn't reliable enough to be certain of anything yet. At current read, Iran has had 978 cases with 54 deaths. That's a 5% mortality rate, but it's unlikely they are solid stats either.
Spanish flu, 2.5% mortality rate, 50 million dead.
It's not just about mortality rate, it's about transmisibility. At this point, it seems that COVID-19 is transmissible via aerosol. That means you don't have to be very close contact with infected to cop a dose, which was less the case with MERS and SARS. A highly transmissible disease with a low mortality rate can still kill millions.
Many animals carry deadly diseases, though. It's when they live in close contact with humans (such as shitty markets that sell live animals in Wuhan...) that the virus can take the leap and/or mutate to be able to live in human hosts. That's why these things usually start in developing countries, where sanitation is low and people take animals inside during the winter and other such practices. SARS came from civets sold in markets similar to Wuhan. When it broke out they tried to cover it up and lost the initiative. Seems few lessons have been learned in China.
FigBo0T
Puts verniers on his headtube
Yes, I'm aware, but the imported animals generally come from, and through, similar shitty environments on their way to Wuhan, and people with them.
Just thinking out loud.
ETA; How long did they know before they notified WHO? ... is a question we'll never hear an honest answer to.
k3n!f
leaking out the other end
I'm not sure Iran's healthcare system is comparable, neither was healthcare in the 1918 Spanish Flu.
Probably a more accurate example would be the 2009 H1N1 "Swine Flu". The world wide mortality was thought to be 2-3%. In Australia the officially reported mortality rate was 0.005%.
Got trained up in a ridiculous looking hazmat suit last week. Don't worry, I've got a vested interest in objectively quantifying the risk.
MARKL
Eats Squid
Not wanting to poke the bear but that is a 0.1% mortality rate...
Depending on which numbers you believe that would mean the Covid 19 mortality rate is 10 - 30x higher than the 'common flu'
k3n!f
leaking out the other end
The first 4 cases were reported on 29th December in Wuhan. We are over 2 months in.
We are 2 weeks into the mainstream media fearmongering.
The modelling being done on transmission, effects on healthcare and mortality all has a best case, and worst case scenario. The reality will statistically most likely be somewhere in the middle. The media sell newspapers and catch attention with dramatic headlines, which paint a picture equivalent of the worst case scenario.
I'm not saying we shouldn't be prepared. I'm just not sure we need to prepare our zombie apocalypse vehicles.
*Edit
Just read this, I completely agree.
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SummitFever
Eats Squid
Rule #1 - Cardio.
rowdyflat
chez le médecin
Johnny I am only a GP of 40 years with a keen interest in science however I am aware of the problems of stating statistics for something that is new , not in a closed controlled experimental environment , a media dream[ like Donald Trump] ,numbers affected by world politics and self reporting.eg Iran and china are 2 countries with little transparency.
Most respiratory illness spread by aerosol so nothing new there.
The infectivity is estimated to be about the same as flu ie 1 person spread it to 2.5 others ,there is a graphic in popular sci.com
Australia could easily close its borders to all travel and trade but it would destroy the economy.
Australia could have no travel restrictions but Corona virus would come with a rush.
The middle ground where everyone is slowly exposed to it over months hopefully would nt cause panic and not overwhelm the health system - that is what seems to be happening.
FYI there is about 45 pages about this in ski.com.au
Most respiratory illness spread by aerosol so nothing new there.
The infectivity is estimated to be about the same as flu ie 1 person spread it to 2.5 others ,there is a graphic in popular sci.com
Australia could easily close its borders to all travel and trade but it would destroy the economy.
Australia could have no travel restrictions but Corona virus would come with a rush.
The middle ground where everyone is slowly exposed to it over months hopefully would nt cause panic and not overwhelm the health system - that is what seems to be happening.
FYI there is about 45 pages about this in ski.com.au
Sorry, math was off, agreed.
Agree with all that. I’m not worried for my own health, I’m worried about complacency on one end (Trump being the example) and panic/Econ melt down on the other.
Agreed, still lots of unknowns - could be lower impact than we think now, could be bad. I guess that’s why I react when I hear folk say that it’s no worse than the common flu. We don’t know and encouraging complacency (not making that claim of you) is just as bad as encouraging panic.
rowdyflat
chez le médecin
The middle ground where everyone is slowly exposed to it over months hopefully would nt cause panic and not overwhelm the health system - that is what seems to be happening.
But just in case I have my bunker fully prepared and can eat from the fat of the lan'[d] eg fruit, kangaroos .
Also the obligatory high powdered preppers' rifle to shoot the Corona zombies when they come for blood.
But just in case I have my bunker fully prepared and can eat from the fat of the lan'[d] eg fruit, kangaroos .
Also the obligatory high powdered preppers' rifle to shoot the Corona zombies when they come for blood.
I was discussing my preparations to an actual prepper the other day. I was talking shelf stable food, dishwashing detergent, reading material, baby nappies and some basic first aid stuff like band aids, pain killers, betadine and similar stuff so hanging about the house for a week or two wouldn’t be a traumatic event. Dude went straight to guns, ammo and booby traps. Trying to convince him that going to ground is not the same as going to war. He disagreed, of course.
PINT of Stella. mate!
Many, many Scotches
On an island. No habitation other than the work site / camp, so pretty much like being offshore.
We've actually just had one of our lads turned away from the airport who was due to fly up this morning. The company has been running temperature checks on all passengers flying up and he's apparently registered a bit high. He's been told to immediately report to a medical centre for further checks.
I dare say it's probably more to do with a few last drinks the night before but it shows how seriously they're treating it.
rangersac
Medically diagnosed OMS
One of my mates is a medical researcher who focuses on genetics. I was having a chat with him and he noted an interesting fact regarding the Spanish Flu that I wasn't aware of. There were three waves of it, and it second one was by far and away the most deadly after it had resided in the human population for a while and then mutated. His take on the whole COVID-19 situation was that the danger wasn't this initial strain, but any future mutations of the virus, as unlike SARS and MERS, the COVID-19 outbreak is now widespread and persistent enough for mutations to be likely
Spanish flu also had the highest impact on middle aged healthy folk, rather than young and old. Like WWI hadn’t done enough on that front.