COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

[hifiandmtb]

What if we don't get a vaccine?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...e-covid-19-silver-bullet-coronavirus/12521004

The World Health Organization has warned that, despite strong hopes for a vaccine, there might never be a "silver bullet" for COVID-19, and the road ahead back to normality would be long.

Dismissing relatively sensible opinions right now is foolhardy - we are still in an information-gathering stage.

The game plan right now seems to be hellbent on suppression, at all costs. As you've stated, deaths from suicide need to be included in the mix.

It's a complicated puzzle game - transparency on desired outcomes is increasingly lacking.

 

[moorey]

I can't stand the false equivalency (not from you Scotty) that more people are taking their own lives, so we should ignore Covid19 and open everything up...or that white people sometimes don't get everything their own way, so BLM is bullshit, or men are occasionally victims of domestic abuse, so women and children shouldn't get all the focus.
I see this on my feed all the time (less as I continue to block people). Its not one or the other. Sorry, i know I'm largely preaching to the choir here.

 

[Haakon]

Woke was aimed at the Guardian not the others. The Guardian is the polar opposite of the Herald sun in my books. I can’t stand either ends of the extreme..

Yeah, you missed the point by a pretty wide margin...

 

[Scotty T]

What if we don't get a vaccine?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...e-covid-19-silver-bullet-coronavirus/12521004

We will have vaccine/s, they may not be a silver bullet, is what I read there. Flu vax is not a silver bullet. I felt like the message there was to remain vigilant, change our way of life from Soldier On (TM) to stay the fuck home if you're crook, for example, silver bullet vaccine or not.

I can't stand the false equivalency (not from you Scotty) that more people are taking their own lives, so we should ignore Covid19 and open everything up... or that white people sometimes don't get everything their own way, so BLM is bullshit, or men are occasionally victims of domestic abuse, so women and children shouldn't get all the focus.
I see this on my feed all the time (less as I continue to block people). Its not one or the other. Sorry, i know I'm largely preaching to the choir here.

The headline of the article I posted critical of UnHerd sums it up:
The UnHerd and the Whining of the Perfectly-Well-Represented

 

[leitch]

The game plan right now seems to be hellbent on suppression, at all costs. As you've stated, deaths from suicide need to be included in the mix.

It's a complicated puzzle game - transparency on desired outcomes is increasingly lacking.

Agreed the clear "end game" vision is lacking, but there is also need for a little bit of faith.

As @moorey said the "what about suicide rates" is a bit of a false equivalence and also impossible to prove. As long as Australia manages to avoid the massive death tolls seen elsewhere, it will always look like the side effects of the response are worse than the effects of the virus itself, and therefore give fuel to the people advocating "let it rip"-style approaches.

Since the pandemic began, 221 people have died in Australia out of 18318 cases for a mortality rate of 1.2%. Lifeline reported that 3046 Australians died by suicide in 2018, or a bit over 8 per day on average. If (and yes obviously this is just referring to @Scotty T's post above) 1000-1500 people have died by suicide since the pandemic began in Aus, then while it is a tragic statistic it is also not indicative of the wave of unemployment-related suicides that Sky News et al claimed would follow the lockdowns. In addition, even if we took those 1000-1500 suicides and said they were all attributable to loss of employment related to COVID-19 (which is evidently not true) then it would still represent a mortality rate of between 0.12-0.18% of the 835,000 people who have lost work.

This also isn't even a helpful observation for a number of reasons.

The reality is, we have to deal with all the issues, and trading off deaths by suicide against deaths by virus one way or another is abhorrent. However, the welfare responses that we have so far are addressing both sides (if imperfectly and incompletely). They need to be extended (not reduced in some Thatcherite welfare cut BS) and refined, but they are there and they can help.

This is a good read: https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020...e-and-covid-19-using-evidence-plan-prevention

Notwithstanding considerable evidence of the psychosocial impacts of mass unemployment, we argue that the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on suicide rates is far from predetermined, and that early and sustained action can prevent many suicides and other adverse mental health outcomes. During prior recessions, Austria, Sweden and Finland have each displayed resilience in the face of substantially increased unemployment.5 In fact, despite sizeable rises in unemployment rates in Sweden and Finland in the early 1990s, the rate of suicide decreased.4

We suggest that, based on the available literature, there are several factors that may moderate the impacts of widespread unemployment. These include both early prevention measures and crisis care: sustained welfare spending; labour market programs and protections; and adequate funding of, and access to, mental health services, including prevention programs and engaging new technologies in the reporting and care response.

 

[Kerplunk]

The headline of the article I posted critical of UnHerd sums it up:
The UnHerd and the Whining of the Perfectly-Well-Represented

Love the irony of posting vice articles as the pinnacle of journalism ..

At Vice, Cutting-Edge Media and Allegations of Old-School Sexual Harassment (Published 2017)

A media company built on subversion and outlandishness was unable to create “a safe and inclusive workplace” for women, two of its founders acknowledge.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Kerplunk]

What if we don't get a vaccine?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...e-covid-19-silver-bullet-coronavirus/12521004


Dismissing relatively sensible opinions right now is foolhardy - we are still in an information-gathering stage.

The game plan right now seems to be hellbent on suppression, at all costs. As you've stated, deaths from suicide need to be included in the mix.

It's a complicated puzzle game - transparency on desired outcomes is increasingly lacking.

Interesting take on what happened back in Australia with the spanish flu. They had all the same sort of discussions after rolling lockdowns..

Lockdowns, second waves and burn outs. Spanish flu's clues about how coronavirus might play out in Australia

There are many similarities between Spanish flu and coronavirus, from school closures to mask debates. The story of 1919 also shows governments face choices that can have a terrible cost in lives.

theconversation.com

I note Victoria infected nsw back then as well. So we have good form in this area..

 

[Scotty T]

Thanks @leitch well articulated.

Love the irony of posting vice articles as the pinnacle of journalism ..

At Vice, Cutting-Edge Media and Allegations of Old-School Sexual Harassment (Published 2017)

A media company built on subversion and outlandishness was unable to create “a safe and inclusive workplace” for women, two of its founders acknowledge.

www.nytimes.com

Did I say that? I thought I just pointed out a headline and an article which has some valid concerns about the people and agenda behind UnHerd.

 

[Haakon]

The headline of the article I posted critical of UnHerd sums it up:
The UnHerd and the Whining of the Perfectly-Well-Represented

that was depressing read - these are the people who have won, and become mainstream now. theyre not crying out for relevance so much as just working to cement their position against a weak and diminishing tide of common sense. I bet Bannon approves of it.

 

[Scotty T]

Interesting take on what happened back in Australia with the spanish flu. They had all the same sort of discussions after rolling lockdowns..

Lockdowns, second waves and burn outs. Spanish flu's clues about how coronavirus might play out in Australia

There are many similarities between Spanish flu and coronavirus, from school closures to mask debates. The story of 1919 also shows governments face choices that can have a terrible cost in lives.

theconversation.com

I note Victoria infected nsw back then as well. So we have good form in this area..

I like The Conversation, as it's one of the highest rated for facts and least biased. But that article didn't really say much other than a bit of a histroy lesson, much of which is not that relevant to our current society or situation.

 

[mike14]

For those much smarter than me (not hard); why are we not seeing a reduction, or a real growth, in numbers within Vic? Shouldn't it either be climbing (restrictions not working), or disappearing (distancing stops anyone new being infected)?

 

[Haakon]

For those much smarter than me (not hard); why are we not seeing a reduction, or a real growth, in numbers within Vic? Shouldn't it either be climbing (restrictions not working), or disappearing (distancing stops anyone new being infected)?

there is a delay - time from exposure to time symptoms kick in and recorded as a case. so what you're seeing in cases on any given day is the result of the situation and conditions from a couple of weeks prior.

 

[mike14]

there is a delay - time from exposure to time symptoms kick in and recorded as a case. so what you're seeing in cases on any given day is the result of the situation and conditions from a couple of weeks prior.

I get the delay. It just seems that everyday it's almost like one person is passing it on to one other person, and then it's getting passed on to one more person the next day.
To me it looks weird because in my mind it should either ramp up quickly, or drop down once your immediate household is infected

 

[Kerplunk]

I like The Conversation, as it's one of the highest rated for facts and least biased. But that article didn't really say much other than a bit of a histroy lesson, much of which is not that relevant to our current society or situation.

“At the end of February, NSW lifted most restrictions.

Even so, the state government did not escape a political attack. The Labor opposition accused it of overreacting and imposing unnecessary economic and social burdens on people. It was particularly critical that the order requiring mask-wearing was not limited to confined spaces, such as public transport.

There was also debate about the usefulness of closing schools, especially in the metropolitan area”

Yep nothing like today at all..

 

[caad9]

I get the delay. It just seems that everyday it's almost like one person is passing it on to one other person, and then it's getting passed on to one more person the next day.
To me it looks weird because in my mind it should either ramp up quickly, or drop down once your immediate household is infected

In Daniel Andrew's presser yesterday the Silver Fox (CHO) said that current rates are 1 to 1 transmission, which is good, however it would continue on infinitely at that rate if stricter measures were not enforced. The restrictions we had in place and mask wearing was working, just not rapidly enough

 

[mike14]

Semi interesting read on where decision-making and oversight should lie during a crisis https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20508840.2020.1796047
(there's also an abstract if you don't want the whole thing https://lens.monash.edu/@politics-s...utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=organic_social)

It will be interesting to see what changes (if any) are brought in 'post-COVID' to potentially better deal with decision making during future emergencies

 

[franco cozzo]

no more loopholes...

 

[stirk]

no more loopholes...
View attachment 365598

Scary because it's true!

 

[leitch]

no more loopholes...

Can't believe they left the Prof Brett mug out...

 

[pink poodle]

Seems I moved on just in time...today my co-workers hae been instructed to we masks at all times at work. Shit might be getting a little hot in the home town.