COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

dirtdad

Wants to be special but is too shy
I'm no apologist for stupid behaviour seen in sydney (especially the recent 'protests'). But for some context on what 239 looks like vs past lockdowns, here is the plot from health.gov.au on cases from 20200122 - 20210728.

378195


Interactive if you go to the site (can see per day numbers when you hover.
 

LPG

likes thicc birds
The frustrating thing with lockdowns is you could technically eliminate transmission within 1 week and totally eliminate covid within 2-3 weeks if there was near full compliance. It really isn't hard for 98% of society to stock up and live within their home for this period.

Imagine if this was done globally a year ago with all business, personal or government rent, payments etc abolished for a month. Instead everyone crosses or points fingers and the pandemic continues.
 

Boom King

downloaded a pic of moorey's bruised arse
I'm no apologist for stupid behaviour seen in sydney (especially the recent 'protests'). But for some context on what 239 looks like vs past lockdowns, here is the plot from health.gov.au on cases from 20200122 - 20210728.

View attachment 378195

Interactive if you go to the site (can see per day numbers when you hover.
And your point is?
 

Ackland

chats d'élevage
I'm no apologist for stupid behaviour seen in sydney (especially the recent 'protests'). But for some context on what 239 looks like vs past lockdowns, here is the plot from health.gov.au on cases from 20200122 - 20210728.

View attachment 378195

Interactive if you go to the site (can see per day numbers when you hover.
Can you filter by NSW and delta variant to make it more relevant?
 

moorey

call me Mia
The frustrating thing with lockdowns is you could technically eliminate transmission within 1 week and totally eliminate covid within 2-3 weeks if there was near full compliance. It really isn't hard for 98% of society to stock up and live within their home for this period.

Imagine if this was done globally a year ago with all business, personal or government rent, payments etc abolished for a month. Instead everyone crosses or points fingers and the pandemic continues.
But, the ECONOMY! Oh wait, we fucked it 100x worse now. Fuck!
 

ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
239…yikes. Police given powers to shut down business’ that flout the rules.
Might beat their 241 record from 30th March 2020 tomorrow.
NSW has been doubling cases every 9 days since the start of lockdown.
Looks like that's going to take off a bit quicker now, a decent jump from yesterday's 178.
Yous can do the maths, doubled every 9 days and still locked down for a further 28 days :oops:
 

leitch

Feelin' a bit rrranty
I'm no apologist for stupid behaviour seen in sydney (especially the recent 'protests'). But for some context on what 239 looks like vs past lockdowns, here is the plot from health.gov.au on cases from 20200122 - 20210728.
Honestly the main lesson from looking at that graph is that all Gladys had to do was look at how costly the delayed response by Vic was this time last year when we faffed around trying to shut down individual postcodes/LGAs to no avail...

239 is devastating. Not because it's worse than the 750 Vic hit, but because it was preventable and came about from hubris. So sorry for those of you in Sydney.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
The frustrating thing with lockdowns is you could technically eliminate transmission within 1 week and totally eliminate covid within 2-3 weeks if there was near full compliance. It really isn't hard for 98% of society to stock up and live within their home for this period.

Imagine if this was done globally a year ago with all business, personal or government rent, payments etc abolished for a month. Instead everyone crosses or points fingers and the pandemic continues.
People need to work to keep society working. Eg utilities still requires staff to run and maintain, they need to drive there meaning petrol stations need to be staffed.

There is not enough food and goods in all the supermarkets for the areas they service for the whole population to stock up in a single day or two. Meaning that freight transport need to operate to move food/goods continually to service this (petrol stations again).

Sick people need treatment, aged care needs to be staffed, do we leave all the peeps in palliative care with a morphine button and just let them rot in bed..etc.

This list goes on, but hopefully you get the idea.

Even if everyone complied, the complete shut down of society is just not possible. Also it would need to be minimum 2 weeks, likley 3-4 given incubation for up to 14 days (and in some cases longer).
 

dirtdad

Wants to be special but is too shy
And your point is?
I thought pretty clear? Not trying to make some apology for either NSW Govt response to the recent Sydney outbreaks, or people being selfish a-holes and not following restriction rules. Just trying to show things could still get/be much worse, like they have been in the past. This is also just Australia - not even talking about overseas experience because it's less relevant (and more heartbreaking/demoralising).

I keep seeing people making comments with this state vs state mentality, and then the media hype up everything they can for clicks, to the point where I think the overall stats are a good reminder of a few things. eg. Things were worse than this in VIC. But they came out of it. All hope is not lost. Don't just give up on restrictions because 'it's already done'. etc.

Can you filter by NSW and delta variant to make it more relevant?
Not sure where to find that data?

Some more interesting stats in here though:

Honestly the main lesson from looking at that graph is that all Gladys had to do was look at how costly the delayed response by Vic was this time last year when we faffed around trying to shut down individual postcodes/LGAs to no avail...
Agree with this. The (in)decisions by NSW Govt to have a half-lockdown when they could have just been clearer/firmer/etc. with restrictions from the get-go. Who knows if it would have worked better? Probably they do. But the rest of us don't have all the minutiae of data that Health departments have.
 

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
is it too much to ask that victoria send us someone with a clue to manage this at the state level?
I found interstate advice during last years Melb lockdown particularly unhelpful.. So, i will tread lightly and steer clear of politics..
One thing that was known to work here (according to abc radio here) was the dept of health went into problem essential workplaces and supported them with proper ppe, covid plans, staff rostering, testing etc.. Took them months to get to that point after realising fining people wasn’t working that great... Less people working together at the same time = less transmission.. Looking at Syd numbers and where the transmission is happening it is very similar to what happened in Melb..
Don’t forgot Melb was a fkn debacle for 4 months+, and the entire health dept was restructured after the lockdown ended..
 

SummitFever

Eats Squid
...But the rest of us don't have all the minutiae of data that Health departments have.
If the response was properly data driven then things would be a lot different. Unfortunately, NSW has put politics before people. Gladys has a particular ideology and good fortune in the past had bolstered her belief in the correctness of that ideology despite a wealth of data and scientific evidence to the contrary.

We need to eradicate covid in Australia. We've now done this multiple times in Australia. It's not impossible, it just needs swift action when its first detected in the community.

Then we need a proper quarantine system to stop it re-entering Australia. I'm sure there will be more potential pandemics in the near future, so some investment in a proper quarantine system will not go to waste. In recent times we've had SARS and MERS, both of which could have turned into global pandemics if the outbreaks weren't controlled early. The population density of this planet means that such diseases will probably be more frequent in future.
 

tubby74

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Don’t forgot Melb was a fkn debacle for 4 month
and the NSW government celebrated every problem that popped up in Vic and slammed the lockdowns. When we should have locked down we couldn't without showing hypocrisy. Could have had this locked down before school holidays with a proper 1-2 week stay at home order. instead we did very little for the week until school holidays started, then 2 weeks of please stay at home but if you dont want to you can go anywhere in the greater sydney area. this is definitely a health crisis of political origins
 

LPG

likes thicc birds
People need to work to keep society working. Eg utilities still requires staff to run and maintain, they need to drive there meaning petrol stations need to be staffed.

There is not enough food and goods in all the supermarkets for the areas they service for the whole population to stock up in a single day or two. Meaning that freight transport need to operate to move food/goods continually to service this (petrol stations again).

Sick people need treatment, aged care needs to be staffed, do we leave all the peeps in palliative care with a morphine button and just let them rot in bed..etc.

This list goes on, but hopefully you get the idea.

Even if everyone complied, the complete shut down of society is just not possible. Also it would need to be minimum 2 weeks, likley 3-4 given incubation for up to 14 days (and in some cases longer).
I agree and I started to go into more detail but decided it would be a rabbit hole of dealing with each Item. The concept I've thought about is to announce a date to work towards starting. Let's say we do it globally and the world has 12 weeks to prepare. Essential services are required to live and work on or near site with strict rules and regulations. They would work similar to FIFO mining workers where they live and work with their shift, even if it is just the supermarket up the road packing food for delivery. At the end of their 2 week shift they can go home to their families for 2 weeks if the onsite covid detection team has been able to test and find that no one is contagious. Open up a lottery system for people to stay in fancy accomodation provided they can be self sufficient there. Half allocated to people in need of better living than their current situation, the other for people to pay for. All essential purchasing or repairs for individuals is booked through a central team that assesses its importance and organises it from their work at home... Governments give their citizens a lockdown grant to buy essential things and stock up in the 12 weeks.

You get the idea, instead of a snap lockdown immediately it is a well prepared lockdown that everyone can prepare for and is supported for so that things can be looked after. Of course it wouldn't happen as there would be too much argument, but in the perfect world...
 

moorey

call me Mia
I agree and I started to go into more detail but decided it would be a rabbit hole of dealing with each Item. The concept I've thought about is to announce a date to work towards starting. Let's say we do it globally and the world has 12 weeks to prepare. Essential services are required to live and work on or near site with strict rules and regulations. They would work similar to FIFO mining workers where they live and work with their shift, even if it is just the supermarket up the road packing food for delivery. At the end of their 2 week shift they can go home to their families for 2 weeks if the onsite covid detection team has been able to test and find that no one is contagious. Open up a lottery system for people to stay in fancy accomodation provided they can be self sufficient there. Half allocated to people in need of better living than their current situation, the other for people to pay for. All essential purchasing or repairs for individuals is booked through a central team that assesses its importance and organises it from their work at home... Governments give their citizens a lockdown grant to buy essential things and stock up in the 12 weeks.

You get the idea, instead of a snap lockdown immediately it is a well prepared lockdown that everyone can prepare for and is supported for so that things can be looked after. Of course it wouldn't happen as there would be too much argument, but in the perfect world...
Imagine the pushback from conspiracy theorists…
 
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