Trump..... (The Sophistry Thread)

mtb1611 said:
Drone pilots, however....
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lob.jpg


Obama's gamers had a pretty good record for accuracy...
 
I don't understand how Iran could close the Hormuz Strait when they have the Israeli's and Americans in full swing against them. They've taken out their navy. What are they using, small craft, ASMs, shaheds?
 
johnny said:
I don't understand how Iran could close the Hormuz Strait when they have the Israeli's and Americans in full swing against them. They've taken out their navy. What are they using, small craft, ASMs, shaheds?
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If they shoot a few anti ship missiles and make ship captains nervous, that would be enough to effectively close the strait.

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Oddjob said:
If they shoot a few anti ship missiles and make ship captains nervous, that would be enough to effectively close the strait.

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Yes, but I'd expect the Israelis/US to know where the missiles sites are and to have taken them out of commission.
 
johnny said:
Yes, but I'd expect the Israelis/US to know where the missiles sites are and to have taken them out of commission.
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If the Iranians have copied the Chinese and put them in 40ft containers. The US would have to hit every container within 100km of the Strait. That could be a very large target list.

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johnny said:
I don't understand how Iran could close the Hormuz Strait when they have the Israeli's and Americans in full swing against them. They've taken out their navy. What are they using, small craft, ASMs, shaheds?
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I think to a large extent how all this will play out depends on what capacity Iran actually has. Are they using everything they have currently? Or are they merely sending up an array of cheaper expendable crap to use up all the ammunition for defensive batteries etc. then once that's played out start sending up the bigger missiles which have potential to cause all manner of headaches and send every regional ally screaming at Trump to find any resolution? I don't see the UAE tolerating shut downs to its airport / airspace for longer than a week or two.

Still think Trump has f***ed himself on this. There's a tiny chance this will work out well for him and about a million ways it will go to shit. He's gonna need to work out a way to suspend the mid-terms very soon cus good old three time Trump voter Dixie Dennis is never going to be convinced to patriotically support about another foreign quagmire when inflation and gas prices are surging. Self-interest is absolutely going to override the cult on this one.
 
johnny said:
I don't understand how Iran could close the Hormuz Strait when they have the Israeli's and Americans in full swing against them. They've taken out their navy. What are they using, small craft, ASMs, shaheds?
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I'm not sure what artillery they have, but with 100m of elevation you could visually target a ship on the other side of the straight. It's only 50k or so wide for a long way.
 
Asininedrivel said:
I don't see the UAE tolerating shut downs to its airport / airspace for longer than a week or two.
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Daily aircraft movements in the region;

DXB – 1,241
DOH – 719
AUH – 510
SHJ – 321
KWI – 294
BAH – 232
DWC – 190

They must be bleeding hundreds of millions a day - not going to put up with that for long, but Iran probably knows that this is where it hurts US allies.
 
I had travel booked for mid April with Emirates, but DFAT has canned all official international travel until further notice which seems sensible...
 
Haakon said:
Daily aircraft movements in the region;

DXB – 1,241
DOH – 719
AUH – 510
SHJ – 321
KWI – 294
BAH – 232
DWC – 190

They must be bleeding hundreds of millions a day - not going to put up with that for long, but Iran probably knows that this is where it hurts US allies.
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Yes and yes. I read somewhere it's the busiest air corridor in the world. If I was the Iranian regime I'd be sending anything remotely airborne anywhere to cause maximum disruption. It's impossible for an air defence network to stop everything in the region, and if you're using $500k missiles to shoot down $30k drones you're already losing.
 
johnny said:
I don't understand how Iran could close the Hormuz Strait when they have the Israeli's and Americans in full swing against them. They've taken out their navy. What are they using, small craft, ASMs, shaheds?
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I think as much as anything they close it by increasing the perceived risk so much that shipping insurers won't underwrite any trips through there. So because they remain in a position to launch something at a tanker, the Strait is effectively closed without needing to physically block it or mine it.
Allegedly the US have now said they'll provide escort ships through there, so that could get interesting
 
Haakon said:
I had travel booked for mid April with Emirates, but DFAT has canned all official international travel until further notice which seems sensible...
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That is a strong budgetary decision. Surprised it came from dfat not the finance team, but its about time. They should keep it up. All you pubic servants wanted to work from home anyway...





Trump says everything has been knocked out, so mission accomplished and time to pat some backs.

https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news...edium=tnd_email&utm_source=tnd_email&lr_hash=


I suspect Iran may be rallying what they have left for something of a grand exit. Why not? Whoever is left to runs things would know they are going to be reduced to rubble so may aswell go out in a blaze if misses and drones. Perhaps then send whatever is left to those terrorist groups they have been funding for so long. Distribute the remaining uranium and wait for a dirty bomb to pop up somewhere unexpected. Then know the fear fof more dirty bombs will last a long time.
 
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