COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

[hifiandmtb]

A decent summary of the economic situation right now:

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...allout-from-coronavirus-is-going-to-be-brutal

 

[nathanm]

Tasmania just closed to incomers. Trails gonna be nice and clear for a while!

Trails are always clear down south. As horrible as it is to say, at least I can camp and ride Derby now with much less trouble. Would hate to be be one of the new shuttle companies though.
Accommodation providers are already offering discounts.

 

[Oddjob]

Tasmania just closed to incomers. Trails gonna be nice and clear for a while!

I'm pretty sure that's unconstitutional. They would also do well to think of the long term impact when looking for tourists and handouts in the future.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

 

[Kerplunk]

we've decided the kids are staying home today. we found it a bit worrying that my son was told another school shut down (turns out just for the day) after a teacher was in contact with a later confirmed case and we couldn't find anything on line about it. Later confirmed through a parent from the kids football team that this happened. With Britain closing schools on the weekend, we'll surely follow and why wait 2 extra days?

Nearly every comparable country to us has shut their schools.. We have kept our kids home as well..
Greece shut schools a while back whent they had really low cases. The gov using the Singapore model as the gold standard is great but we aren’t testing everybody all the time like they were. And unfortunately cases are rising in Singapore again..

 

[_______]

Probably already posted, but we are 8 days behind the US and 3 weeks behind Italy. Increase in Italy is now linear rather than exponential according to the graph below.

I'm anxiously waiting to see how effective the social distancing / border control measures are here. In Australia our numbers have a lag of 5 days due to testing, so if the numbers are still increasing by 30% in the results posted over this weekend (21/22nd March) more drastic measures will need to take place.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Beware the unexamined assumptions behind statistics:
Are they still testing as much as they were, or are they going easy on the kit supply/experiencing overload?
Although the evidence for it is only a small proportion so far, there are reported cases of reinfection after recovery, and the possibility of reduced viral load (limiting symptom presentation) the second time around (which may limit transmissibility, but equally may not) has definitely not been exhaustively examined

 

[nathanm]

I'm pretty sure that's unconstitutional. They would also do well to think of the long term impact when looking for tourists and handouts in the future.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

Tourists? You'd be insane to be travelling around on Holidays right now interstate or overseas.

 

[DMan]

we've decided the kids are staying home today. we found it a bit worrying that my son was told another school shut down (turns out just for the day) after a teacher was in contact with a later confirmed case and we couldn't find anything on line about it. Later confirmed through a parent from the kids football team that this happened. With Britain closing schools on the weekend, we'll surely follow and why wait 2 extra days?

Nearly every comparable country to us has shut their schools.. We have kept our kids home as well..
Greece shut schools a while back whent they had really low cases. The gov using the Singapore model as the gold standard is great but we aren’t testing everybody all the time like they were. And unfortunately cases are rising in Singapore again..

So is one of you, or wives stay at home parents?

 

[tubby74]

Tourists? You'd be insane to be travelling around on Holidays right now interstate or overseas.

I know travel insurance doesn't cover pandemics but if the airline isn't flying do they have to refund?

 

[tubby74]

So is one of you, or wives stay at home parents?

I work from home 3-4 days every week, but now the client I usually go to each week has told me not to come in. I still get work for now though. Very lucky at the best of times, doubly so now

 

[rangersac]

I'm pretty sure that's unconstitutional. They would also do well to think of the long term impact when looking for tourists and handouts in the future.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

OK, technically you can still get in, and there are 'essential' exemptions. However you are required to isolate for 14 days after doing so and if you are found to have broken that isolation the penalties are up to a $16,800 fine or up to six months in prison. Don't reckon many people are now showing up for a holiday

 

[Nerf Herder]

aussie dollar has TANKED overnight....down to $0.57 US....fuck.

kicking myself, had opportunity to hedge at 0.65 but I hesitated and missed the window ... meh

 

[DMan]

I work from home 3-4 days every week, but now the client I usually go to each week has told me not to come in. I still get work for now though. Very lucky at the best of times, doubly so now

Yep, certainly not a luxury my wife or I have unfortunately. But also, at the end of the day, my wife, daughter and myself aren't high risk so even if we do get it we probably won't suffer worse than getting a normal flu and we'll do our 2 weeks of isolation.

 

[SummitFever]

kicking myself, had opportunity to hedge at 0.65 but I hesitated and missed the window ... meh

It sucks for all of us that have to buy stuff from overseas for our businesses. Not sure why the AUD is getting so beat up when its a global problem. Given what's happening in the US and the fact that China seems to be coming out the other end of it, you'd think we'd be gaining on the USD.

 

[Kerplunk]

So is one of you, or wives stay at home parents?

Yeah we both work from home, we have the ability to help stop the spread so we are doing it. I don’t pass any judgement on anyone else for not keeping kids home.
The only reason schools are staying open is an economic one, and I don’t necessarily disagree with that decision. My thoughts are the quicker we slow the virus the quicker we can get back to some sort of normalish behaviour. The longer we wait the worse it gets.. There is no reason why we can close the schools for a bit then reopen then close again if cases spike and repeat. To try and lock the general public down for 6months at some point, which is what the PM is saying, will destroy the economy and will be worse than the virus itself.. Society just will not tolerate being isolated for that long..

 

[DMan]

Yeah we both work from home, we have the ability to help stop the spread so we are doing it. I don’t pass any judgement on anyone else for not keeping kids home.
The only reason schools are staying open is an economic one, and I don’t necessarily disagree with that decision. My thoughts are the quicker we slow the virus the quicker we can get back to some sort of normalish behaviour. The longer we wait the worse it gets.. There is no reason why we can close the schools for a bit then reopen then close again if cases spike and repeat. To try and lock the general public down for 6months at some point, which is what the PM is saying, will destroy the economy and will be worse than the virus itself.. Society just will not tolerate being isolated for that long..

I hear you and yes I agree in some ways. Especially the repercussions of locking down society. But we don't have that luxury unfortunately of staying home until we have to. I guess there's the flip side too. The other theory I was reading was to isolate the elderly and vulnerable, look after them and let the rest of the population get it and over it..... I found that interesting.

 

[tubby74]

The other theory I was reading was to isolate the elderly and vulnerable, look after them and let the rest of the population get it and over it..... I found that interesting.

the thought occurred to me that with elderly parents, am I to avoid them indefinitely or would it be better to get the virus and hope its all in the past then

 

[rangersac]

I hear you and yes I agree in some ways. Especially the repercussions of locking down society. But we don't have that luxury unfortunately of staying home until we have to. I guess there's the flip side too. The other theory I was reading was to isolate the elderly and vulnerable, look after them and let the rest of the population get it and over it..... I found that interesting.

If limiting the disruption to society was the highest priority then there are only two options

1. Go full isolation and lockdown as per Wuhan until all cases die down in the country. Pretty much impossible now to trace all of the contacts that infected people have potentially made now though, and even if by some miracle we could pull it off, it would still be massively disruptive as we'd then have to keep all international borders closed until the virus died down around the world, to prevent reintroduction, or until a vaccine was produced which all credible experts are saying will be 12 months away

2. Don't bother with restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, let everyone catch it as quickly as possible and obtain immunity through survival. This would result in overwhelmed hospitals and a lot of people dying unnecessarily from other conditions so not politically or socially acceptable.

 

[Kerplunk]

I hear you and yes I agree in some ways. Especially the repercussions of locking down society. But we don't have that luxury unfortunately of staying home until we have to. I guess there's the flip side too. The other theory I was reading was to isolate the elderly and vulnerable, look after them and let the rest of the population get it and over it..... I found that interesting.

Yeah that was British model until a few days ago which they quickly u-turned on. The modeling showed that deaths from anything other than coronavirus would rise dramatically with the strain on hospitals. Herd immunity doesn’t work without a vaccine either.
I do see us getting the point eventually where the gov will sacrifice the old to keep social/economic order.. if a treatment or vaccine doesn’t appear quickly.. It is sad but the damage from isolation, lockdown, bankruptcies, suicides/mental health will be worse than the virus..

 

[Scotty T]

the thought occurred to me that with elderly parents, am I to avoid them indefinitely or would it be better to get the virus and hope its all in the past then

You will only be hoping at this stage, there are reports on reinfection so it's not confirmed that after recovery you won't get it again. The only reliable way will be a vaccine.

 

[DMan]

If limiting the disruption to society was the highest priority then there are only two options

1. Go full isolation and lockdown as per Wuhan until all cases die down in the country. Pretty much impossible now to trace all of the contacts that infected people have potentially made now though, and even if by some miracle we could pull it off, it would still be massively disruptive as we'd then have to keep all international borders closed until the virus died down around the world, to prevent reintroduction, or until a vaccine was produced which all credible experts are saying will be 12 months away

2. Don't bother with restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, let everyone catch it as quickly as possible and obtain immunity through survival. This would result in overwhelmed hospitals and a lot of people dying unnecessarily from other conditions so not politically or socially acceptable.

Both are not options obviously. Did you actually read what I wrote or are you a reporter for ABC?