2012 Olympics - current odds

spinner88

Likes Bikes
I searched the site but couldn't find any info, so i thought i'd start a new thread.

So,...with one one spot up for grabs, who's on the short list and who's hitting the straps at the moment?

I would have thought:


MEN:

Jongewaard
Taberlay
Norris
Van der P
McConnell

Dan is obviously going well but are Chris and Lachlan still targeting this event? Chris hasn't been in the local results lately i've noticed...

WOMEN:
Henderson
King
Fry?

Anyone i've missed or anyone like to call it now?
 

Beechie

Banned
Olympics

Local results will count for about 7% of the "potential" to be selected. Probably demonstrated by the Rotorburn speculation a local level considered. World Cup results upcoming will 93% be the measure for team selection.
Chris Jongewaard is CERTAINLY in the run, probably top pick - Dan has been riding well BUT a race against Chris will be a good indicator. Lachie I don't believe is targeting the Olympics with 100% efforts at this stage, however he is always dangerous - so roll on World Cups and he will be at these.
The women - those four have been in the mix for a couple of years. Fry to Greenedge may rule her out.
Again - a world cup race or two would be the measure.
 

cleeshoy

Eats Squid
Local results will count for about 7% of the "potential" to be selected. Probably demonstrated by the Rotorburn speculation a local level considered. World Cup results upcoming will 93% be the measure for team selection.
Chris Jongewaard is CERTAINLY in the run, probably top pick - Dan has been riding well BUT a race against Chris will be a good indicator. Lachie I don't believe is targeting the Olympics with 100% efforts at this stage, however he is always dangerous - so roll on World Cups and he will be at these.
The women - those four have been in the mix for a couple of years. Fry to Greenedge may rule her out.
Again - a world cup race or two would be the measure.
If Jongewaard does get selected, will the UK even allow him into the country to compete? A criminal conviction can make things a bit more complicated when trying to enter some countries.
 

akashra

Eats Squid
I reckon the women need to qualify a spot before you start picking teams.
^^ This.

As a female elite cyclist came up and said to me at Shepparton, dejected: "Well, there goes Australia's chance of competing at London".

Oceanias in 2011 picked the country, Oceanias in 2012 picks the rider. Fair chance it's going to be Rosara Joseph.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, the only other way to get a place is on WC points.

The Mens field is limited to (again, correct me if I'm wrong?) 80, of which Oceania get two places; the Womens field limited to 40, in which Oceania get one.


I can't recall what our best placed Elite Mens rider has taken in any recent World Cup race, but if riding for 30th isn't going to provide any funding for mountain biking or CA, then I'd much rather see the places filled by the best ambassadors for the sport rather than the fastest riders. Can anyone provide any info on what determines the funding for the sport - ie, is anything less than a medal not considered, or do they look down the field?

I also reckon it's a damn shame Ben Henderson hasn't been able to compete well this year through illness, missing the C2 ranked national rounds. He had great form at last years National Champs and it'd be a shame to not see the same challenge at Adelaide later this month.
 
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bunchie34

Likes Dirt
If Jongewaard does get selected, will the UK even allow him into the country to compete? A criminal conviction can make things a bit more complicated when trying to enter some countries.
We'll let anyone in. They even let me back in when I go home.
 

RED_RACER

Likes Dirt
I also reckon it's a damn shame Ben Henderson hasn't been able to compete well this year through illness, missing the C2 ranked national rounds. He had great form at last years National Champs and it'd be a shame to not see the same challenge at Adelaide later this month.
National rounds mean nothing, its all about who has the coin to race the world cup and ability to do it well. Hopefully he will be ok for a few of them..
 

aussie dude

Cannon Fodder
The women are still in the mix to qualify a spot but it really depends on the NZ women maintaining their level. The current rankings have NZ at 17th http://www.uci.ch/templates/BUILTIN-NOFRAMES/Template3/layout.asp?MenuId=MTUxNjU&LangId=1

Top 8 countries can send two women. 9th to 18th can send one woman. There is also another spot available for an Oceania representative. The important thing is that the country that qualifies by the rankings isn't eligible to qualify through the Oceania spot as well.

If anyone wants to read the full qualification details they can go here. http://www.uci.ch/Modules/BUILTIN/getObject.asp?MenuId=&ObjTypeCode=FILE&type=FILE&id=NjA1NzU&LangId=1
 

barneroo

Likes Bikes
Please correct me if I'm wrong
You're wrong.

Here's the qualifaction policy: http://corporate.olympics.com.au/files/dmfile/UCI_Mountain_Bike_January_2011.pdf
Basically, the way it works for the women is that any country ranked in the top 18 countries gets one "criterion 1" spot (top 8 get 2). Then each of the continents gets a "criterion 2" spot, for the best rider that didn't get a spot through criterion 1. So if NZ remains in the top 18 countries then they get the criterion 1 spot, leaving us with the criterion 2 spot. If NZ don't stay in the top 18 (as of May 22, 2012) then there is no criterion 1 spot for anyone in Oceania, and NZ get the criterion 2 spot and we miss out.

Nation rankings can be found at: http://www.uci.ch/templates/BUILTIN-NOFRAMES/Template3/layout.asp?MenuId=MTUxNjU&LangId=1
Currently NZ is in 14th for women. Australia is 22nd for women and 15th for men.

Australia's selection policy can be found here: http://www.cycling.org.au/site/cycl...2 Nomination Criteria Final - 8 July 2011.pdf

It says the following races are considered (in order from most to least significant):
a. UCI World Cup (XCO) Races;
b. UCI World MTB (XCO) Championships;
c. UCI Calendar MTB (XCO) events;
d. MTB (XCO) Oceania Championships; and
e. MTB (XCO) Australian Championships.

As you can see, the national series is irrelevant (except that I suppose technically the ones that were UCI categorised races would count under "c"), and the Aus champs is the least important race that is considered. The emphasis is strongly on how well the riders are able to compete in top-quality international fields.
 

akashra

Eats Squid
Yeah, I was looking at that page earlier today, but unfortunately all those links are broken for me. I was aware it was based on country ranking and, as already said, that there are ways in which countries can qualify additional riders, which is where it would seem a few have misunderstood what I've said regarding C2 ranked races.

My understanding is rankings come from UCI points - I'm trying to figure out what counts towards those points though. To me it would seem to make little sense to include C2/C1 races if countries can just run a heap within their own region which results in their own riders racking up tons of points, but I can't seem to find the document that specifies which events points count towards a countries ranking. Surely only WC and continental championships would count towards this ranking?
 

barneroo

Likes Bikes
Huh, the links work for me. Not sure why they're not working for you.

All types of UCI categorised races (world champs, world cups, continental champs, national champs, HC stage races, C1 stage races, C1 one day, C2 stage race, C2 one day, C3 one day) count towards individual rankings, and the top 3 riders in a country contribute to that country's ranking. The bigger races have far, far more points associated with them than small races (e.g. a win at world champs will get you 300 points, whereas winning a C2 will get you 30 points). I listed the races in order of most points available to least.

It is kind of true that a country can improve their ranking by holding a bunch of category 1 & 2 races. Especially a country like Australia where our races are nearly entirely contested by Australians. In contrast, when a European country has a categorised race many international racers come, meaning the hosting country doesn't necessarily get many of the points.

But there is a limit to the number of races of each type that count towards an individual's ranking. On the uci website there is a document with all the rules about this:
http://www.uci.ch/Modules/BUILTIN/g...&ObjTypeCode=FILE&type=FILE&id=34424&LangId=1
The relevant part is:

For events in the categories below, only the best results of each rider are taken into account:
• Class 1 one-day events: the best 5 results
• Class 2 one-day events: the best 4 results
• Class 3 one-day events: the best 3 results
• Class 1 stage races: the best 3 results
• Class 2 stage races: the best 2 results

So only a maximum of 4 C2s count for any one rider. So if Australia really wanted to maximise our number of places at the Olympics then we would hold 5 C1s, 4 C2s etc. The reason we don't do this (I am assuming) is that these races are pretty fricking expensive to hold. See the following document for a list of fees & minimum prize money http://www.uci.ch/Modules/BUILTIN/g...bjTypeCode=FILE&type=FILE&id=NDc2MTg&LangId=1
For example, the minimum prize money for a C1 race is around 6,500 Euros just for the XC categories, and about 3,000 for a C2. Stage races are 1.5 times a single day race plus 1,600 per stage. And there are a bunch of other expensive rules (like the number of commissaires required). So you can see that it gets expensive pretty quickly for a country like Australia where our elite races already lose money even when they are not UCI categorised.

Hope that answers your questions. Now that you're the XC rider rep it might be a good idea to get familiar with all those documents. If the links aren't working for you, you can access them all from the UCI website, www.uci.ch/
 

akashra

Eats Squid
Well aware of most of that Rosie, and yes, as soon as you want to start running UCI listed events, it gets expensive. If you think hosting C1/C2 XCO events is expensive, wait til you see the same document for CX! :/
http://www.uci.ch/Modules/BUILTIN/g...bjTypeCode=FILE&type=FILE&id=NDc2MTc&LangId=1

If a sponsor were to step up allowing us to list a heap of C1 races, it'd certainly do better for when we send riders overseas. Would be good to see more riders coming over here to race though so our riders get more experience at that level of competition.
 
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Markymark188

Likes Dirt
I thought there was an annoucement scheduled to be made in mid May - from what I recall.

it's goota be hard to look past D-Mac in my opinion.. (My opinion doesn't count for Olympic selection BTW) .
 

aussie dude

Cannon Fodder
There is still 3 WC races left in the selection process starting with Houffalize next weekend. In the mens Dan Mcconnell is the front runner after finishing 24th in the opening round. Womens position is still up in the air.
 

Le Matelot

Canberra Off-Road Cyclists
Olympic Selection Criteria

There is still 3 WC races left in the selection process starting with Houffalize next weekend.
The nomination criteria are available from the Cycling Australia website (and also attached here). One thing you will see is that the World Cups have to be European or North American - so the South African results do not officially count.

The mountain bike specific nomination criteria start on page 24.

These are nomination criteria, not selection criteria. Riders are nominated by CA to the AOC and the AOC then "Select" them.

View attachment 2012 Nomination Criteria - _Cycling_ Final _Amended_.pdf
 
One thing you will see is that the World Cups have to be European or North American - so the South African results do not officially count.

These are nomination criteria, not selection criteria. Riders are nominated by CA to the AOC and the AOC then "Select" them.

View attachment 232251
Not quite true, once you add a little 'discretion'

2.2 Discretionary Inclusion in the Shadow Team
(1) In addition to any automatic selections under clause 2.1 above, the Selection Committee may select additional athletes for the Shadow Team, in its absolute discretion, taking into consideration an athlete’s performance in the following events within the Performance Time Period:
Cycling 2012 Nomination Criteria Final (Amended 16 March 2012) 24
a. UCI World Cup (XCO) Races*;

Nothing like a bit of 'discretion' to make the whole thing a little more personal.
 
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