Spike-X
Grumpy Old Sarah
Woohoo! Finally I'm the best at something!
An early election has been called
- Thread starter Dozer
- Start date
Spike-X
Grumpy Old Sarah
My apologies. You sounded like so many people I've known who actually fit the description I mistakenly put on you.
The Duckmeister
Has a juicy midrange
There are occasionally anomalies to buck that trend. Where I grew up there was one serial pollie who went through the ranks of council & state before having a crack at federal level. This guy was a particularly abrasive self-flagellating twerp who would go to the opening of a fridge if he sensed a photo opportunity. Anyway, all the political experts predicted this guy would be a shoe-in because all the general polls favoured his party, but the reality was the community hated the guy, so they didn't vote for him, regardless of party lines.
I remain hopeful the back ground lobbyists in the liberal party (faceless men, as they love to hurl at the other side of politics) are watching the polls and are aware of the appropriate time line.
I will keep this and repost after the election to see if I am right.
Here is my prediction:
Whenever there is a leadership change of an unpopular leader the new candidate will normally have a month, sometimes two, of a honeymoon period where he polls quite well. To time this in an election is normally quite easy. 4-6 months out. 2 months honeymoon and 2-4 months of real campaigning.
The problem for turnball is that he is already polling quite high. The tricky part is his honeymoon period has already started around December. The power brokers would be wise to keep him in the wings for as long as possible and dump him in very late in the campaign. This is a risk as the closer to an election we get the more chance Abbott has of disillusioning the electorate. The Power brokers know this. There is no coincidence Turnball is turning up on Q&A in leather jackets and then back to suits later on.
I would think if we haven't seen a change by late May..... It's all over. Abbott will lead the party and we will more than likely en up with him as PM.
The situation everyone wants to avoid is another hung parliament. Labour is facing either a backlash that will see them lose power, or an absolute white wash.
I will keep this and repost after the election to see if I am right.
Here is my prediction:
Whenever there is a leadership change of an unpopular leader the new candidate will normally have a month, sometimes two, of a honeymoon period where he polls quite well. To time this in an election is normally quite easy. 4-6 months out. 2 months honeymoon and 2-4 months of real campaigning.
The problem for turnball is that he is already polling quite high. The tricky part is his honeymoon period has already started around December. The power brokers would be wise to keep him in the wings for as long as possible and dump him in very late in the campaign. This is a risk as the closer to an election we get the more chance Abbott has of disillusioning the electorate. The Power brokers know this. There is no coincidence Turnball is turning up on Q&A in leather jackets and then back to suits later on.
I would think if we haven't seen a change by late May..... It's all over. Abbott will lead the party and we will more than likely en up with him as PM.
The situation everyone wants to avoid is another hung parliament. Labour is facing either a backlash that will see them lose power, or an absolute white wash.
Yep, he's a wanker. Now that his boxing career is in the shitter .....maybe he can assist Kneebone up north? Oh wait.....she wouldn't be Aboriginal enough for him.
pharmaboy
Eats Squid
Lol - straw man attempt!
Nah the greens just have no idea of the real world- economically ignorant, politically naive, and ecologically illogical
Big JD
Wheel size expert
oh and enviroment, gambling, keeping some mining revenue in the country and equality for all - what are they thinking
I understand that the labour party has empoyed the services/advice of Obama's consultants to follow a similar strategy for the campaign.
Capone
Likes Dirt
I think we will be at the polls earlier than we think
www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/craig-thomson-arrested-by-fraud-squad-20130131-2dmnn.html
www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/craig-thomson-arrested-by-fraud-squad-20130131-2dmnn.html
Ivan
Eats Squid
Your making a lot of assumptions there.
dcrofty
Eats Squid
Dunno, he's an independent now so labor will only get a bit of grief about him and he doesn't have to stand aside till he's convicted which will probably drag out till after the election.
Big JD
Wheel size expert
he was arrested on 1 count (out of 100+) charges of fraud................. one of them should stick.
And you can bet that the cops have done their homework on what will stick and what won't, especially being sucha high profile person.
dcrofty
Eats Squid
Possibly. Time and a trial will tell.
Doesn't sound like his arrest is going to result in an early by-election though, unless he gets bankrupted and I suspect a half decent lawyer could drag things out till after the election.