Mr Crudley
Glock in your sock
I guess so. I am firmly in refugee-ville
Fortunately the food is better.
Early retirement / FIRE
- Thread starter frenchman
- Start date
Fortunately the food is better.
Ultra Lord
Hurts. Requires Money. And is nerdy.
Mr Crudley
Glock in your sock
Well, I stand corrected.
Nerf Herder
Wheel size expert
Nerf Herder
Wheel size expert
I know this is a gloomy time for many ... but the old adage of “Buy in Doom, Sell in Boom” can’t fit any better time than now.
link below is a CBA property research article. CBA being the biggest property lender in Australia, I put weight to this. That said, I’ve always considered CBA the most plodding of the 4 pillars.
Just to layer some Nerf Market Psychology over the top of the vanilla research. All these Loan deferments that the major banks have offered as part of RBA QE ... is all smoke and mirrors. They’ve adjusted your interest up, over the deferment of payment period and will recoup once you start getting paid again. So meh, you as the consumer really aren’t winning, and the banks definitely aren’t disadvantaged and using this as a marketing opportunity to counter royal commission fallout.
On the downside or upside, depending on your perspective ... for those unlucky enough not to find a chair (job) when the music (Stimulus) stops ... Default rates are going to spike, which means Supply will increase, They are anticipating demand will be subdued (ie property buyers will not have money and or will be conservative) => property price drops. I’d say that’s the crux of CBA’s thinking.
The counter is
A good chunk of businesss may return to normal, post COVID conditions ... a smaller than expected portion of the work force will lose jobs, coupled with various state governments ramping up more infrastructure spend and god forbid business grant funding as stimulus.
the Link Brains Trust has also postulated that there will be a push towards more flexible work arrangements post COVID, which could mean, both a rise in productivity per labour hour, offset with a decrease in labour hours (Eg move to 4 day weeks) which in turn could lead to increase job vacancies ... that last one is a real stretch, business could just use it to reduce wage expense to lift profit.
in short => big bounce => actual increase in labour demand ... but not enough to get significant wage increases. (Really in line with pre COVID trends, but remote work being a larger trigger towards increased flexibility.
So ... either way, presuming you are secure with regular earnings ... next six months could be a good time to have cash to invest, either in property or other things.
https://www.commbankresearch.com.au...wMDZQRVVJRUE0OmFsYW5AbGlua3Nwb3J0cy5jb20uYXU=
disclaimer: I’m not a financial advisor, This is an MTB forum ... do your research, get independent advice and or make your own investment related decisions.
link below is a CBA property research article. CBA being the biggest property lender in Australia, I put weight to this. That said, I’ve always considered CBA the most plodding of the 4 pillars.
Just to layer some Nerf Market Psychology over the top of the vanilla research. All these Loan deferments that the major banks have offered as part of RBA QE ... is all smoke and mirrors. They’ve adjusted your interest up, over the deferment of payment period and will recoup once you start getting paid again. So meh, you as the consumer really aren’t winning, and the banks definitely aren’t disadvantaged and using this as a marketing opportunity to counter royal commission fallout.
On the downside or upside, depending on your perspective ... for those unlucky enough not to find a chair (job) when the music (Stimulus) stops ... Default rates are going to spike, which means Supply will increase, They are anticipating demand will be subdued (ie property buyers will not have money and or will be conservative) => property price drops. I’d say that’s the crux of CBA’s thinking.
The counter is
A good chunk of businesss may return to normal, post COVID conditions ... a smaller than expected portion of the work force will lose jobs, coupled with various state governments ramping up more infrastructure spend and god forbid business grant funding as stimulus.
the Link Brains Trust has also postulated that there will be a push towards more flexible work arrangements post COVID, which could mean, both a rise in productivity per labour hour, offset with a decrease in labour hours (Eg move to 4 day weeks) which in turn could lead to increase job vacancies ... that last one is a real stretch, business could just use it to reduce wage expense to lift profit.
in short => big bounce => actual increase in labour demand ... but not enough to get significant wage increases. (Really in line with pre COVID trends, but remote work being a larger trigger towards increased flexibility.
So ... either way, presuming you are secure with regular earnings ... next six months could be a good time to have cash to invest, either in property or other things.
https://www.commbankresearch.com.au...wMDZQRVVJRUE0OmFsYW5AbGlua3Nwb3J0cy5jb20uYXU=
disclaimer: I’m not a financial advisor, This is an MTB forum ... do your research, get independent advice and or make your own investment related decisions.
hifiandmtb
Sphincter beanie
Depends if this year will see the bottom of the market.
I think we won't see bottom of the market in 2020...
I think we won't see bottom of the market in 2020...
pink poodle
気が狂っている男
When the gravy dries up we will see the vultures hovering.
recessions/depressions have always been a good time if you keep your job. trouble this time is even if you keep your job its likely to be at 20-40% less hours and/or pay. its still a game of catching the falling knife trying to guess the bottom, and having the confidence that your income now is reliable.
I think the biggest long term change out of this will be a lot of people re-assessing their values. Working from home is at its worst now since we're isolated from other activities, but the benefits of setting your own environment and less travel time will see a lot of people move that way once its teamed up with regular activities that get you out and socialising. may will realise that after cutting back they dont want to work 5 days a week to afford crap they didnt need or miss when they couldnt afford it.
I think the biggest long term change out of this will be a lot of people re-assessing their values. Working from home is at its worst now since we're isolated from other activities, but the benefits of setting your own environment and less travel time will see a lot of people move that way once its teamed up with regular activities that get you out and socialising. may will realise that after cutting back they dont want to work 5 days a week to afford crap they didnt need or miss when they couldnt afford it.
pink poodle
気が狂っている男
Call me a cynic, but I have never seen this phrase work out well for employees. It almost always means casualisation or contract roles rather than actual jobs. The employer pushing workers into a vulnerable position.
That has already started. Both in our regional precincts and from the brownfield out to greenfield areas to relieve mortgage and cash in on low rates.. A bunch of new Fhog stuff is going down in the back ground too, announced post covid. I should still sell half a dozen for the month.I'm annoyed that the new estate upcoming in Ballarat is about to release, a good 30k under its main competitor, was hoping it was later this year to snaffle another block.
Anything sub 400k isn't lasting a week right now.
rextheute
Likes Bikes and Dirt
I have noticed ( i am still Vkeen ) that Tassie hasn't had much of a correction - could be the later sales - as in last 30 days were listed pre shutdown .
The lower ( crappy ) end of the market properties are still for sale.
Be interesting to see how it all pans out over the next 6 months ?
- My WFH is at present possibly till june 30 - if i stay employed .
However Mr Tubby may be on to something
The lower ( crappy ) end of the market properties are still for sale.
Be interesting to see how it all pans out over the next 6 months ?
- My WFH is at present possibly till june 30 - if i stay employed .
However Mr Tubby may be on to something
- 'do you need /want' all the extraneous crap you have collected ?
- is this sustainable working full-time ?
- Wow ! i saved money by not just wandering around the shops .
- Ohh , a new bike !
hifiandmtb
Sphincter beanie
I've saved money by not commuting every day - and the ancillary costs of food & coffees. I eat less at home, feel better for it!
i got it from a couple of counselling sessions I got during cancer treatment. basically making sure a pragmatic attitude i had wasnt me bottling things up until it exploded. When i said I was kind of enjoying getting to RPA every work day for radiation they said that's not uncommon that a forced break from routine lets you step back and re-evaluate things. I enjoyed getting out during working day, maybe sitting in a cafe after I'd been zapped and just slowing down. I wqas really lucky to be a freelancer though so I could work when i could, I just had to deliver code, not hours.
Flow-Rider
Burner
Job loyalty finished in this country long ago, (EBA's) contract working is one of the worst things to enter the workforce.
rextheute
Likes Bikes and Dirt
As someone who has been down this road - with my Wife twice and recently myself .
YES .
A lot of stuff that WAS important is really NOT - Perspective is everything .
rextheute
Likes Bikes and Dirt
My wife /girlfriend / lover has a relationship with cancer - her words " it can get fucked"
Im lucky they just cut a hole in me .
A friend of 40yrs has ( yesterday ) had their hand forearm amputated .
Thats Perspective .
Stay Safe , Stay Healthy , Love your family and friends .
Im lucky they just cut a hole in me .
A friend of 40yrs has ( yesterday ) had their hand forearm amputated .
Thats Perspective .
Stay Safe , Stay Healthy , Love your family and friends .
cameron_15
Eats Squid
I've recenty started full time work after only being a bike shop bitch previously and spending years studying. I'm looking to set up a budget/Financial overview spreadsheet or tracker. One place where I can keep track of money earnt, spent, invested and taxes etc. Are there any good templates, apps or programs for this that I can use?
I think this is a good place to post being financially related
I think this is a good place to post being financially related
The hard thing with this downturn is it ain’t normal.. Usually when there is a downturn the kickback is hard and there are great gains to be had.. This time no one knows when this will end, if we don’t get a vaccine this virus we will have waves of infection for quite a while, as has happened in every other pandemic in history.. And as with all other pandemics, social distancing is the only tool we have that works 100%.. So if we look at Australia, our growth is pretty much based on adding people via immigration at a rapid rate.. That might not well be possible in the foreseeable future. And that affects a shitload of our economy from housing, education and tourism. It will also affect public confidence and in turn spending, if we have rolling lockdowns/restrictions people just will not spend like they would normally.. All this adds up to things looking pretty bleak.. Not to mention the economy was in pretty shit shape coming into this..
I have cash ready and waiting for opportunities, but until we see how this virus behaves in our winter, I am not keen to gamble on the peaks and troughs atm..
If you look at previous pandemics, we are kidding ourselves if this will be a V shaped recovery like other downturns..
The Reverend
Likes Bikes and Dirt
@Kerplunk, I agree with you. One of the challenges is that if you're looking at shares for example, some are close to their 12 month low but who knows if they have further to fall? Over time they might get some returns bit it's a gamble for the reasons you've stated.
If you know what you're doing there are some gains to be had. And no, I don't. I'll be looking back over time wishing I had done XYZ like the rest of us...
If you know what you're doing there are some gains to be had. And no, I don't. I'll be looking back over time wishing I had done XYZ like the rest of us...