Missing Malaysian flight

Bermshot

Banned
If you expressed intent then there would be no motivation. Same as if you jump up and down and tell Putin he's a very naughty boy, you get no effect.

When you say, look fuckwit, you've supported a bunch of numpties in a war on their own govt and you've killed MY nationals, and we won't have a barof it - we are going to push as hard as we can to get the UN to bring unilateral sanctions against you . - there is at least some chance that said fuckwit ( as you can tell, I'm a diplomat) will see that it is no longer in his interest to support said war.

You cannot convince Putin of anything on the basis of fairness and justice, it has to be in his and Russia's interest . That's what pressure is about and the more countries that agree with you, the greater pressure you can bare. That pressure is aimed at aligning Putins self interest with justice and peace.
I love it...
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
they are quite a firm vegetable (?) prior to cooking, that would be dangerous.
Neeps are fucking awesome. They are probably the only part of the Scottish staple diet that isn't deep fried or alcoholic. They are also what we used to use as Jack O Lanterns for Hallowe'en.

I won't hear a bad word said against them.


Meanwhile, it's been around a week now yet I don't think I've seen any actual public-level sanctions/boycotting of Russia.

The Sochi Winter Olympics were surrounded by people getting all outraged at Russia's fairly crappy stance on gay folk <cough Edward Snowden> <cough sorry to my knowledge I don't think he's gay but the US state dept just happened to make gay rights their top agenda around about the same time he was granted asylum in the Motherland. Just sayin'>

Sorry. I've been drinking so please forgive my rambling but yeah. There hasn't even been a murmur from either the usual outraged mobs (Amnesty Int, etc) nor from media commentators, or any governments regarding the upcoming inaugural Russian Formula One GP.

Bahrain's GP a few years ago faced all manner of opposition!

Anyway, I think that's probably all a bit irrelevant. I'm just talking shit

As you were.
 

Xavo.au

Likes Bikes and Dirt
One thing that doesn't stack up for me is a notam saying to pilots something along the lines of use caution flying over warzones. What does that mean to a commercial airline pilot? They have no visibility of ground missiles, weapons or hostilities and no instruments to tell him or her that they are being tracke, targeted or or fired upon? How does a pilot apply that caution? I call BS on that.
I wrote a huge reply to this, but deleted it.

Instead, research what the (TWO) NOTAMs stated: One was for conflicting ATS from Ukrainian and Russian sources in the south of the country (ie Ukrainian ATC and Russian ATC were both trying to control the same airspace and it was thought that it would soon lead to a crash if two planes were vectored into the same airspace). The 2nd NOTAM was for a specific parcel of airspace (ie as long as you fly above this, you will be fine).
 

Bermshot

Banned
I think this is a bit far fetched, though. Russia's interests will always be controlling Ukraine as it borders the Russian heartland and there are no significant geographic barriers to protect Russia. Russia already lost the Baltic and cannot afford to lose Ukraine, the Caucuses and/or Kazakhstan. Moscow is immensely fearful that the West will be able to create a colour revolution in Russia and flip the power or even break Russia up. Protecting against this will always be much, much more important than anything else.

Also keep in mind that Russia has veto power in the UNSC. Also, and even more important is that much of Western Europe has massive trade with Russia (French Mistrals, German exports, Russian gas, etc., as PoSM has said) and the US needs Russia on board to deal with Syria and Iran. That means that any kind of critical mass could never be mounted against Russia to outweigh their geographic interests.
Com'n johnny,

Russia has no restrictions anymore: sic (Ukraine) "Oh I know! Lets shoot a commercial down."

Yep, that makes heaps of sense. Fuck! I wonder who their war master is now?
 

Bermshot

Banned
Neeps are fucking awesome. They are probably the only part of the Scottish staple diet that isn't deep fried or alcoholic. They are also what we used to use as Jack O Lanterns for Hallowe'en.

I won't hear a bad word said against them.


Meanwhile, it's been around a week now yet I don't think I've seen any actual public-level sanctions/boycotting of Russia.

The Sochi Winter Olympics were surrounded by people getting all outraged at Russia's fairly crappy stance on gay folk <cough Edward Snowden> <cough sorry to my knowledge I don't think he's gay but the US state dept just happened to make gay rights their top agenda around about the same time he was granted asylum in the Motherland. Just sayin'>

Sorry. I've been drinking so please forgive my rambling but yeah. There hasn't even been a murmur from either the usual outraged mobs (Amnesty Int, etc) nor from media commentators, or any governments regarding the upcoming inaugural Russian Formula One GP.

Bahrain's GP a few years ago faced all manner of opposition!

Anyway, I think that's probably all a bit irrelevant. I'm just talking shit

As you were.
Well done, get this up ya!
image.jpg
 

pharmaboy

Eats Squid
I think this is a bit far fetched, though. Russia's interests will always be controlling Ukraine as it borders the Russian heartland and there are no significant geographic barriers to protect Russia. Russia already lost the Baltic and cannot afford to lose Ukraine, the Caucuses and/or Kazakhstan. Moscow is immensely fearful that the West will be able to create a colour revolution in Russia and flip the power or even break Russia up. Protecting against this will always be much, much more important than anything else.

Also keep in mind that Russia has veto power in the UNSC. Also, and even more important is that much of Western Europe has massive trade with Russia (French Mistrals, German exports, Russian gas, etc., as PoSM has said) and the US needs Russia on board to deal with Syria and Iran. That means that any kind of critical mass could never be mounted against Russia to outweigh their geographic interests.
Hang on, haven't the Ukraine and Russia being getting along albeit a bit up and down for the last 20 years, and it's now only just come down to a my guns versus your guns ? They are both pretty interdependent on each other , so you only have to step back to the relations of say 4 years ago .

The further the military action goes the harder it will be to turn back, surely. Maybe it's the mythical crisis opportunity

Way too much optimism I know - need to put the bong away.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Com'n johnny,

Russia has no restrictions anymore: sic (Ukraine) "Oh I know! Lets shoot a commercial down."

Yep, that makes heaps of sense. Fuck! I wonder who their war master is now?
I honestly have NFI what you're talking about.

Hang on, haven't the Ukraine and Russia being getting along albeit a bit up and down for the last 20 years, and it's now only just come down to a my guns versus your guns ? They are both pretty interdependent on each other , so you only have to step back to the relations of say 4 years ago .

The further the military action goes the harder it will be to turn back, surely. Maybe it's the mythical crisis opportunity

Way too much optimism I know - need to put the bong away.
I'm sure you prob know a lot of this but Kiev is actually the capital of Russian culture and history, etc. etc. West of the Dneiper is Western oriented and east is Russian oriented - Crimea used to be part of Russia, etc. etc. Since the early 2000s Ukraine has been shifting east and west. Kuchma was Eastern, Yuschenko and Tymoshenko were Western, YAnukovic Eastern and Now you have Poroshenko who is Western Oriented. The Orange Revolution that bought Yuschenko in to power was a Western supported action as were the other colour revolutions. Russia sees the Western, anti-Russian forces bringing the Baltics in to Nato and removing Russia's sphere of influence - which also represents the territories that buffer the Russian heartland where oil, agriculture, population and industry is focused. Russia can't allow the wolf to reach the door and they will do what they can to stop it.
 

eastie

Likes Bikes and Dirt
I wrote a huge reply to this, but deleted it.

Instead, research what the (TWO) NOTAMs stated: One was for conflicting ATS from Ukrainian and Russian sources in the south of the country (ie Ukrainian ATC and Russian ATC were both trying to control the same airspace and it was thought that it would soon lead to a crash if two planes were vectored into the same airspace). The 2nd NOTAM was for a specific parcel of airspace (ie as long as you fly above this, you will be fine).
As much as id like to research it, you cant google everything from russia where im currently holed up. From what i heard reported days ago there was supposedly a notam issued for the area instructing pilots to use caution, that was it. Seems that wasn't the case, and the caution related to dispute atc therefore increasing risk of mid air collision, not fighting or the new found conventional warfare capability of turnip farmers.
 

Fruitbat

Likes Dirt
So I admit I am pretty naïve when it comes to world politics, but one thing I was expecting was that Putin would roll out a couple of the aforementioned turnip farmers proclaiming them as a rogue group (cell, division, I don't know what the right term is!) and executing them, hence attempting to avoid a lot of criticism for doing nothing?
 

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
So I admit I am pretty naïve when it comes to world politics, but one thing I was expecting was that Putin would roll out a couple of the aforementioned turnip farmers proclaiming them as a rogue group (cell, division, I don't know what the right term is!) and executing them, hence attempting to avoid a lot of criticism for doing nothing?
That would open him up to a lot of other criticism. We would call him a monster etc. We wish to have cake and eat it.
 

SummitFever

Eats Squid
I know that statistically flying on a commercial airliner is the safest form of travel, but I wonder how that stat is holding up recently. Today, another plane with 110 people on board has gone missing and yesterday a plane crashed killing 48. It's been a pretty bad 7 days for commercial passenger craft.
 

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
I know that statistically flying on a commercial airliner is the safest form of travel, but I wonder how that stat is holding up recently. Today, another plane with 110 people on board has gone missing and yesterday a plane crashed killing 48. It's been a pretty bad 7 days for commercial passenger craft.
But a good time to plan that next holiday...
 

pharmaboy

Eats Squid
I know that statistically flying on a commercial airliner is the safest form of travel, but I wonder how that stat is holding up recently. Today, another plane with 110 people on board has gone missing and yesterday a plane crashed killing 48. It's been a pretty bad 7 days for commercial passenger craft.
About 500 people die each year on average in commercial aviation. Today more than the entire population of Sydney will board a flight. Over the year that's about 3 billion passenger trips.

In Sydney, there are maybe 200 million car trips annually, but only about 250 fatalities in greater sydney - what's that, about 1/8 th the risk, worst case scenario ?

Anyway, to your question clustering in statistics is normal, by definition the 500 fatalities can't be evenly distributed because it's often a 200person in one go, but yes it's been a bad few months.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
So I admit I am pretty naïve when it comes to world politics, but one thing I was expecting was that Putin would roll out a couple of the aforementioned turnip farmers proclaiming them as a rogue group (cell, division, I don't know what the right term is!) and executing them, hence attempting to avoid a lot of criticism for doing nothing?
The issue is also about how they acquired the equipment used and why it's traveling back and forth across the Russian border. Everyone knows that Russia is supporting the rebels to the point that if Russia pulled the support the rebels would not exist as a force. So to say that these guys were "rogue" simply wouldn't float.

Russia is supporting an insurgency that is seen by most of the ("civilised") world as illegitimate and Russia has long been under pressure to remove that support. The support given by Russia has now resulted in the deaths of ~298 civilians who were totally unrelated to the conflict (as in they were not taking part in the conflict and were not the citizens of either waring party).

This is the crux of the immediate issue. The overlaying framework is that the West is trying to reduce Russia's power in Europe and essentially the world and Russia is trying to defend its relative interests.
 

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
...and Russian support for Ukrainian separatists is not that different to the US (and allied) support for Libyan or Syrian rebels in recent time and countless others in the past. Except that the Ukraine is right on the Russian door step and has made a fair swing away from Russian affiliations in recent times. Where as most US intereferences have been in places far away.

Russia have a history of trying to bully their former soviet friends, look at Georgia. America have a history of trying to bully their resource suppliers. Perhaps kind of similar to if China decided to fund rebels here to form the peoples republic of nsw to secure their access to our coal and food supplies. Russia (due to geographic size) has an amazing array of natural resources and arriable land. Making them somewhat important in the European food chain. Plenty of armies have tried to secure that and failed.

While I remain cynical about the value of our pompous behaviour towards Russia, I think posm/pharma raised an interesting point about it being a good chance to suck up to our buddies in the white house without any real risk of repraisal. Perhaps this is being deliberately fuelled by the Murdoch media.
 

eastie

Likes Bikes and Dirt
sitrep from Donetsk: Ukrainian forces are pushing to take control of crash sites. tanks, apc's and inf.
 
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johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Malaysia Airlines plans new name after fallout from MH17

Date
July 28, 2014

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mala...e-after-fallout-from-mh17-20140727-3cne4.html


Malaysia Airlines, whose flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine 10 days ago with the loss of 298 passengers and crew, has begun a strategic review that is likely to result in a change of name and a radical overhaul of its business.

The Malaysian government-backed airline, which has suffered the loss of a second airliner in less than six months, is undertaking a major review of its operations.

Work has begun on restructuring the airline to fly profitable international and domestic routes and to increase outsourcing.

Sources indicated the review was likely to lead to additional private investment for the airline, possibly from rival aviation companies.

The review is being led by the Malaysian government, the majority shareholder, and follows the downing of flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine and the unexplained disappearance of flight MH370 in March. MH370 was travelling from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing and lost touch with air traffic control on March 8, an hour after take-off. carrying 239 passengers and crew.

The airline's commercial director, Hugh Dunleavy, said that despite the ''tragic loss'' of both aircraft, the airline would eventually ''emerge stronger''.

''Our majority shareholder, the Malaysian government, has already started a process of assessing the future shape of our business, and that process will now be speeded up as a result of MH17,'' Mr Dunleavy said.

''There are several options … but all involve creating an airline fit for purpose in what is a new era for us and other airlines.''

The options are said to include renaming and rebranding the airline, which carries 50,000 passengers a day and employs 20,000 staff.

Although the airline raised 9.9 billion ringgit ($3.3 billion) last year, and is said by industry analysts to be well funded, it is thought external investment could help to restore confidence following the recent tragedies.

After the MH17 disaster, Mr Dunleavy said the industry needed to work together to ensure such tragedies could not happen again.

''MH17 was in airspace approved by ICAO [the International Civil Aviation Organisation]. Its flight plan was approved by the Ukrainian authorities, as well as Eurocontrol. Yet still it was brought down, it seems, by a missile,'' he said.

''This tragedy has taught us that despite following the guidelines and advice set out by the governing bodies, the skies above certain territories are simply not safe. MH17 has shown us airlines can no longer rely on existing industry bodies for this information.''

Mr Dunleavy is calling for the industry to form ''one body to be the arbiter of where we can fly''.

''Airlines such as ours should be left to focus on the quality of our product in the air, not on the air corridors we fly in, which should be guaranteed as safe passage,'' he said.

His call for action follows EasyJet's decision last week to suspend flights to Tel Aviv following advice from European and US aviation regulators after a Palestinian rocket fired from Gaza fell close to the city's Ben Gurion airport.

The low-cost British carrier chose not to fly to the Israeli airport, despite other British airlines, including British Airways, choosing to continue. EasyJet resumed flights on Friday after regulators lifted their advice.

The incident reflects concerns in the aviation sector about the safety of flying over contested airspace.

Mr Dunleavy said the airlines ''should not be held accountable for factors beyond our control''.

Telegraph, London
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
Been reading the reports of renewed fighting inside the supposed exclusion zone that's preventing the Australian and Dutch investigation team from accessing the crash site and I noticed that the teams are going in unarmed. Does that mean that Julie Bishop has dropped the contentious plan to send them in with Australian troops as security?
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
THat's what I've been reading since Friday.

Even armed support wouldn't help when you're in between two waring sides, especially when they're using kit like MLRS and other indirect fire weapons.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
THat's what I've been reading since Friday.

Even armed support wouldn't help when you're in between two waring sides, especially when they're using kit like MLRS and other indirect fire weapons.
Yeah, if things went pear-shaped a few dozen aussie troops armed with rifles aren't going to be much match for hundreds of seperatists armed with mortars, howitzers and quite possibly APCs (even if they are pissed out of their skulls) also it's likely to be seen as an inflammatory move by the seperatists and their Russian masters.

Still I don't think Bishop and Abbott should have been savaged as much as they were in the press as it's also a big ask to send unarmed and unprotected civilians right into the middle of a war zone.
 
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