Russia Vs. America; Here we go again kids!

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
The US already has the Magnitsky Act in place where they have been freezing assets of Putin's allies. Yes, expanding it has been a shitfight particularly with Trump in power for 4 years but the foundations are already in place.



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And it's time to put the brakes on it before it gets out of hand. uConstant appeasement is not working. If Putin remains in absolute power following this invasion how long do you think it will be before he starts claiming that the Lithuanians are blockading essential supplies from getting through to the enclave of Kaliningrad and are (along with fellow Baltic states Estonia and Latvia) subjecting native Russian speakers to persecution.
When that happens, we really will be at a crossroads as they are all NATO members and an attack on one is an attack on all.



Just because it's difficult, doesn't mean it shouldn't be done and if Putin (and to a lesser extent Trump) has taught us anything it's that if you have the authority, you can pretty much make up the rules as you go along.


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Russia's oligarchs aren't the people to travel in economy class under false names. They're private jet owning fat-cats who are addicted to the high life. Uralchem supremo Dmitri Mazepin is one of Putin's cronies. He literally bought his douchebag son a seat on a Formula One team by making his trucking company Uralkali the principal sponsor of Haas F1 (also known as 'America's F1 Team'). He also made Haas change their livery so that it deliberately resembles the Russian flag at a time when world sporting bodies were banning the Russian flag and national anthem from being used in sports events due to their doping. Now, he is not what you would call an anonymous figure and he's often seen lurking in the paddock at F1 races around the world. Same goes for Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich. The man's face is known to millions. -



Again I'll refer back to the Magnitsky Act. It's already been used for penalising associates of Putin and his regime and while many South American beaches shit all over their US counterparts, neither of them are the French Riviera (which ironically has awful beaches). That's the lifestyle those guys crave and that's the only way to hurt them at this time.

*BTW. These aren't just my own opinions either. I'm basically parroting far more knowledgeable minds on the subject like former opposition leader and Chess Grandmaster Garry Kasparov who has been banging on about the dangers of Putin and how to effectively hurt him for years now.
quite familiar with the Magnitsky Act and all of the associated rules on sanctions. This is a space i have worke din for some time and hold qualifications in. Again, you cant seize/freeze stuff that cant be proven to belong to a person on that list or any other watch list. Why do you think these people remain obscenely wealthy and move about globally relatively freely despite these various actions?
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
trust me, people who need to use the hawala system are using established hawala brokers or known associates. This isn't something you arrange with some random.

dont take this the wrong way, but you have a very narrow view of of how wealth or money is transferred. If i sell you a painting for 1 million cash, i dont have to put that money in the bank. Infact money doesn't even have to be part of the transaction. physical money or even the ability to access the physical form of it is of little worth when youre a billionaire. IF I want to put money into the banking system, laundering it through an array of transactions through legitimate business interests is not difficult for these people. The systems and shell corporations are in place and contacts are well established. You personally probably would have zero chance of disguising 1M, but not someone whos been doing it for 30 years.
Part of Biden's sanctions' is that he has frozen assets from Russian banks in the US in the trillions, there's no way to access them financially, you might do an off market sale but like I said it comes with big risks. If Russians didn't need the stability of having it there in the first place, they would have used the shelf companies like you say in the first place.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Part of Biden's sanctions' is that he has frozen assets from Russian banks in the US in the trillions, there's no way to access them financially, you might do an off market sale but like I said it comes with big risks. If Russians didn't need the stability of having it there in the first place, they would have used the shelf companies like you say in the first place.
The sanctions on russian banks is to block them from transacting in the us financial system via correspondent accounts. 5he transactions being blocked are in the trillions in value, not that they have frozen trillions in assets in the us banking systems.

Huge difference.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
No doubt some assets will get caught up that haven't been hidden well, but it won't be in the trillions. The value is all in access to the financial system that allows them to transact in various us markets. without access to those markets, wealth creation will be hampered. Untill they work out another way to access it. You know, via some other country's correspondent banking system
 
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johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Plausible and quite likely what the aborted attempt to take the airport yesterday was supposed to trigger:
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johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
No doubt some assets will get caught up that haven't been hidden well, but it won't be in the trillions. The value is all in access to the financial system that allows them to transact in various us markets. without access to those markets, wealth creation will be hampered. Untill they work out another way to access it. You know, via some other country's correspondent banking system
I don't have any experience in this particular field, but have to be aware of the basics and what happens.

Everything that Squidfayce has been saying in the last couple of pages is on the money - pun intended - as far as I'm aware.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
It's worth noting that abusing the world's financial systems is a well developed science. Each country's attempt at meeting FATF obligations and wolfsberg principles is woefully lagging. The saying that the criminals are always two steps ahead is very accurate. We've been debating since 2012 whether we should include lawyers, realestate agents and accountants into AML reporting obligations. Needless to say, these are the three most abused professions for money laundering in australia.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
quite familiar with the Magnitsky Act and all of the associated rules on sanctions. This is a space i have worke din for some time and hold qualifications in. Again, you cant seize/freeze stuff that cant be proven to belong to a person on that list or any other watch list.
And you can't just go invading countries willy-nilly but here we are.

We need to stop fucking around and strangling ourselves with red tape. If the intelligence services know (even if they can't legally prove) that an $80m townhouse in Chelsea is ultimately owned by a close associate of Vladimir Putin then the UK government easily have the power to make that person's life more difficult. Random property inspections under dubious guises, denial of entry into the country to visit said property, visible harassment by the security services. Easily done. They did far worse to suspected IRA members for decades. Got a Bentley in the garage? Good luck getting that out on the road legally if the authorities really have it in for you. Superyacht down the marina? Oh look, a marine inspector wants to take a look at it and make sure it's seaworthy. What's that? You want to leave port. Sorry. We've got naval exercises in the harbour at the moment. Hell, if we get the French involved we can always blow the cunt up while it's tied up to the wharf!

These are all things that Governments can do and have done in the past. Remember we are dealing with a regime that had no qualms about poisoning people with polonium and novichok on foreign soil and have just invaded another sovereign nation without provocation. so fuck 'em. Remember we had no problem in bending the rules for the 'War on Terror.' This should be no different.

Why do you think these people remain obscenely wealthy and move about globally relatively freely despite these various actions?
The obscene wealth gained from stripping Russia's national assets and natural resources dry is something we can't stop but we can easily restrict the movements of Putin's associates. Being denied entry to any NATO country would be a huge blow to these vain crooks. They aren't going to be placated with holidaying in Dubai or Pattaya with the riff-raff. These are the sort of fuckers who hire the likes of Beyonce for birthday parties on the shore of Lake Garda. Their kids go to Oxford and Cambridge and the Sorbonne. If you take that away from them but leave them with the dangling carrot that all they have to do is conspire to kick the chair out from under the feet of their mate Vlad, it's a no-brainer as to what they'll do.

Now I know that Putin has been incredibly successful at sewing division throughout Europe and the US and has managed to financially implicate entire Governments in his criminal enterprises making the actual process of carrying out meaningful action against Putin incredibly difficult. Some of the the contrarian fuckers in the US Republican party are even voicing support for him but it's time to rip the band-aid off because if we don't we're going to be in an even bigger world of shit a few years further down the line.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
We need to stop fucking around and strangling ourselves with red tape. If the intelligence services know (even if they can't legally prove)
Don't disagree with the sentiment, but that IS a slippery slope. Who decides? What if they're wrong? Who polices this? Where is the line?

You know who else just takes what they want and makes up the rules as they go?

It's easy to say and hold these views. The reality is much more complex.
 

Litenbror

Eats Squid
Don't disagree with the sentiment, but that IS a slippery slope. Who decides? What if they're wrong? Who polices this? Where is the line?

You know who else just takes what they want and makes up the rules as they go?

It's easy to say and hold these views. The reality is much more complex.
The wealthy would rather protect each other and, by proxy, their own wealth than regular people. It's one thing to get up on a soap box like Scomo and say how terrible they are and it's completely different thing to draft legislation that could confiscate these assets without getting your arses handed to you in a court room by the most expensive and morally bereft lawyers the country has for hire.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
The wealthy would rather protect each other and, by proxy, their own wealth than regular people. It's one thing to get up on a soap box like Scomo and say how terrible they are and it's completely different thing to draft legislation that could confiscate these assets without getting your arses handed to you in a court room by the most expensive and morally bereft lawyers the country has for hire.
The argument is that that legislation exists. That there is international coopperation and that it works. There's evidence that it does (in most circumstances).

Any meaningful expansion of those legislative powers is seen as over reach by many legitimate and trustworthy business people. They're not wrong.

There is a point where such control would inevitably sweep up legitimate business interests or hamper legitimate investments in global economies.

The system is set up to prevent a majority of people from doing the wrong thing, and in that respect, it works. It isn't built to manage the 0.1% of the world's elite and nor should it be.

It's never going to be perfect and there will always be ways to abuse the system.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
The sanctions on russian banks is to block them from transacting in the us financial system via correspondent accounts. 5he transactions being blocked are in the trillions in value, not that they have frozen trillions in assets in the us banking systems.

Huge difference.
Obviously Banks don't hold physical assets in the bank itself, but they hold assets as in shares, accounts for Gold and silver in vaults, deeds to property loans and so on. You'd be surprised what the Australian govt knows too, a family member of mine used to work monitoring criminal activity in a large Australian casino, a lot of global criminals are banned from even walking in the front door. I'm well aware of how criminal syndicates work, I've friends and family that also work high up in AFP and state police.

We'll wait and see how much effect the sanctions have.
 

Litenbror

Eats Squid
The argument is that that legislation exists. That there is international coopperation and that it works. There's evidence that it does (in most circumstances).

Any meaningful expansion of those legislative powers is seen as over reach by many legitimate and trustworthy business people. They're not wrong.

There is a point where such control would inevitably sweep up legitimate business interests or hamper legitimate investments in global economies.

The system is set up to prevent a majority of people from doing the wrong thing, and in that respect, it works. It isn't built to manage the 0.1% of the world's elite and nor should it be.

It's never going to be perfect and there will always be ways to abuse the system.
Not surprised the legislation already exists, prosecuting the legislation is a wholly different task. We can't get successful prosecutions against anyone at the moment so trying something like has been suggested above would end badly.

As I said earlier we know about all of these issues and have for years but fixing them would cause problems for our billionaire bosses so don't hold your breath waiting for Delaware to change their corporate tax laws.

Edit: just reading the tone and want to be clear I'm not having a dig. Agree completely with what your saying and enjoying hearing from someone who has direct experience in this field.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Dude on tele from Aus Ukranian Federation saying all Russian ambassadors around the world should be expelled, Putin is now a war criminal. I agree.
If Countries like Australia expelled the Russian ambo, Russia would respond by PNGing the corresponding diplomat in Russia and our expats living there would have no representation.

Better to PNG all declared and known Russian intelligence personnel as that would cut a pretty serious flow of information the Kremlin relies on.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Obviously Banks don't hold physical assets in the bank itself, but they hold assets as in shares, accounts for Gold and silver in vaults, deeds to property loans and so on. You'd be surprised what the Australian govt knows too, a family member of mine used to work monitoring criminal activity in a large Australian casino, a lot of global criminals are banned from even walking in the front door. I'm well aware of how criminal syndicates work, I've friends and family that also work high up in AFP and state police.

We'll wait and see how much effect the sanctions have.
I think you've missed what I was trying to say about those sanctions. It's got less to do with any of the things you mention and more to do with not allowing people access to the US financial markets, which generally require you to actually hold a US bank account or transact via your country's banks correspondent banking accounts, which russian banks transact trillions worth of transactions yearly.

A correspondent bank is effectively a proxy for you or another bank in a country where you or that bank don't have an established banking relationship. Usually there is a handful of accounts that deal in billions of dollars of transactions a day. Removing access to these facilities mKes it hard for people to continue to use established routes for wealth creation (legitimate and suspect alike)

Reconciling these accounts is notoriously hard and a great way for concealing the origin or true source of funds. It's standard for large legitimate companies in different jurisdictions sending each other money through these channels so finding the odd sus transaction relies on software to flag it. However these softwares are fallible and different banks tune them differently based on their risk appetites or local regulatory requirements. Knowing that information is key to stay undetected. It's also not a matter of just adjusting the tuning to pick up the sus transactions either, because instead of say 2 or 3 redflags a day, a small change could create thousands of false positives a day.

And I do t think I'd be surprised what the govt does know, because I am exceptionally familiar with how these systems work. I have tuned and audited these transaction monitoring systems for multiple big 4 banks.

I also know that It falls to the organisations to report the information to the govt. The govt doesn't have a direct view of the banks various ledgers directly. They get reports from the bank with this data and it is often sanitised. This is one of the reasons that these things do go on and why stuff like banks still copping fines for thousands of AML breaches still occurs. Banks set their appetites, tune rules for detection, review samples and report any thing they do find that's suspicious to AUSTRAC.
Sometimes Austrac works out that the banks aren't giving the full picture so they come in and audit them. AUSTRAC is also exceptionally smart at filling in the blanks, but they just don't have the resources to be on top of everything all the time.
 
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Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Edit: just reading the tone and want to be clear I'm not having a dig. Agree completely with what your saying and enjoying hearing from someone who has direct experience in this field.
Didn't assume for a moment you were having a dig :)

I just don't generally pay attention to how stuff I write reads.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Also worth noting that any US introduced sanction is effectively mirrored in 90% of other FATF member countries. These lists are loaded by default in the various software solutions that try to keep track of this stuff.

If you dont tow the line, the US reserves the right to cut you off too. Hasn't happened ever, but that's because no one has tried to argue a contrary position with the US.
 
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