Russia Vs. America; Here we go again kids!

Counterpoint:


Prigozhin’s death has exposed Putin’s weakness
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/prigozhins-death-has-exposed-putins-weakness/

24 August 2023, 6:51am

So much is still unclear about the fate of Wagner group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, from whether he really did die in the private jet that plummeted to the ground in Russia’s Tver region to what caused the crash. In today’s Russia, after all, ‘mechanical problems’ could be anything from maintenance issues to the difficulty in flying when a bomb has blown a hole in your fuselage. The odds are, though, that he is indeed dead, and three things would follow from this.

First of all, that Wagner’s fate is sealed. Even its operations in Africa are unlikely to survive long term, given the degree to which they were bound in personal deals, illicit financial flows and corrupt understandings brokered by Prigozhin himself. Other Russian mercenary companies such as Redut, run by Prigozhin’s arch-rival Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, may try to muscle in on Wagner’s business, but it is unlikely they will simply be able to replace it.
Putin has moved into a new and even more blatant era of assassination

Secondly, that the Kremlin had decided it could close the book on its investigations of Wagner’s recent mutiny, and that it had identified those who supported and sympathised with it. Suspected of being Prigozhin’s highest-placed military backer, General Sergei Surovikin had disappeared into custody and interrogation after the coup. Is it just a coincidence that on the same day as the plane crash Surovikin was formally dismissed from his position as commander of the Aerospace Forces?

Thirdly, that Putin – who would have had to have at the very least approved any decision to kill Prigozhin – has moved into a new and even more blatant era of assassination. This was vengeance not just on a grander style than in the past but also after Putin had apparently given his erstwhile lieutenant an at least temporary stay of execution. The increasingly dictatorial Russian leader may hope that this strengthens his position, but arguably the opposite may be true.

The Russian elites are likely to see this as evidence not that Putin is strong but that he is increasingly and murderously erratic. That he flip-flopped so quickly from lambasting Prigozhin as a traitor to inviting him to his recent Africa summit to murdering him will do nothing to calm nerves about Putin’s state of mind and grip on the system.

The mutiny itself was a mark of his failure to successfully manage the horizontal disputes; since the beginning, this management has been central to Putin’s style of governing. Of course, by mutinying – even if with the intent of persuading the boss to back him against Shoigu rather than to topple him – Prigozhin sealed his own fate.

However, the mark of a well-organised authoritarianism is that the regime does not need so openly to kill insiders, because they are deterred from breaking the rules of the system in the first place. Putin’s greatest threats are likely to come not from the streets, let alone the remnants of the liberal opposition, but from a pragmatic elite that is constantly weighing the dangers of living under him against those of not doing so. The so-called ‘turbo-patriots’ who think his regime is too incompetent to win the war with Ukraine also pose a threat

Assuming he did have Prigozhin killed – and that must be our working assumption for now – then Putin may have hoped to cow both groups with such a naked display of power and violence. But he may find he has done the opposite.
The ultra-nationalists are furious, some already vowing revenge, as they saw in the thuggish Prigozhin the kind of man who, in their eyes, would do whatever it took to win the war. The wider elite are much more circumspect, but they may well be getting closer to the point at which they consider themselves his hostages rather than his supporters. That does not mean they will turn against him any time soon, as matters will have to get much worse before the dangers in that course of action will be outweighed, but that potential tipping point is getting closer.



Mark Galeotti

Written by
Mark Galeotti
Mark Galeotti heads the consultancy Mayak Intelligence and is honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies and the author of over 25 books on Russia. His latest, Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine, is out now.
 
There was zero chance he could take Moscow, none whatsoever.


Of that I have no doubt, but...surely Wagner knew that doing anything insubordinate would end up with him dead. So once started there was no way back. Putin isn't known for being a forgiving soul.
 
Counterpoint:


Prigozhin’s death has exposed Putin’s weakness
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/prigozhins-death-has-exposed-putins-weakness/

24 August 2023, 6:51am

So much is still unclear about the fate of Wagner group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, from whether he really did die in the private jet that plummeted to the ground in Russia’s Tver region to what caused the crash. In today’s Russia, after all, ‘mechanical problems’ could be anything from maintenance issues to the difficulty in flying when a bomb has blown a hole in your fuselage. The odds are, though, that he is indeed dead, and three things would follow from this.

First of all, that Wagner’s fate is sealed. Even its operations in Africa are unlikely to survive long term, given the degree to which they were bound in personal deals, illicit financial flows and corrupt understandings brokered by Prigozhin himself. Other Russian mercenary companies such as Redut, run by Prigozhin’s arch-rival Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, may try to muscle in on Wagner’s business, but it is unlikely they will simply be able to replace it.


Secondly, that the Kremlin had decided it could close the book on its investigations of Wagner’s recent mutiny, and that it had identified those who supported and sympathised with it. Suspected of being Prigozhin’s highest-placed military backer, General Sergei Surovikin had disappeared into custody and interrogation after the coup. Is it just a coincidence that on the same day as the plane crash Surovikin was formally dismissed from his position as commander of the Aerospace Forces?

Thirdly, that Putin – who would have had to have at the very least approved any decision to kill Prigozhin – has moved into a new and even more blatant era of assassination. This was vengeance not just on a grander style than in the past but also after Putin had apparently given his erstwhile lieutenant an at least temporary stay of execution. The increasingly dictatorial Russian leader may hope that this strengthens his position, but arguably the opposite may be true.

The Russian elites are likely to see this as evidence not that Putin is strong but that he is increasingly and murderously erratic. That he flip-flopped so quickly from lambasting Prigozhin as a traitor to inviting him to his recent Africa summit to murdering him will do nothing to calm nerves about Putin’s state of mind and grip on the system.

The mutiny itself was a mark of his failure to successfully manage the horizontal disputes; since the beginning, this management has been central to Putin’s style of governing. Of course, by mutinying – even if with the intent of persuading the boss to back him against Shoigu rather than to topple him – Prigozhin sealed his own fate.

However, the mark of a well-organised authoritarianism is that the regime does not need so openly to kill insiders, because they are deterred from breaking the rules of the system in the first place. Putin’s greatest threats are likely to come not from the streets, let alone the remnants of the liberal opposition, but from a pragmatic elite that is constantly weighing the dangers of living under him against those of not doing so. The so-called ‘turbo-patriots’ who think his regime is too incompetent to win the war with Ukraine also pose a threat

Assuming he did have Prigozhin killed – and that must be our working assumption for now – then Putin may have hoped to cow both groups with such a naked display of power and violence. But he may find he has done the opposite.
The ultra-nationalists are furious, some already vowing revenge, as they saw in the thuggish Prigozhin the kind of man who, in their eyes, would do whatever it took to win the war. The wider elite are much more circumspect, but they may well be getting closer to the point at which they consider themselves his hostages rather than his supporters. That does not mean they will turn against him any time soon, as matters will have to get much worse before the dangers in that course of action will be outweighed, but that potential tipping point is getting closer.



Mark Galeotti

Written by
Mark Galeotti
Mark Galeotti heads the consultancy Mayak Intelligence and is honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies and the author of over 25 books on Russia. His latest, Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine, is out now.
Mark has a great podcast called In Moscow's Shadow.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk
 
Of that I have no doubt, but...surely Wagner knew that doing anything insubordinate would end up with him dead. So once started there was no way back. Putin isn't known for being a forgiving soul.
Yeah, I think they were backed into a corner with the decision that all contract soldiers fighting in Ukraine were being forced to sign over to the military: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023...s-brushes-off-russian-order-to-sign-contracts That order came from Shoigu and was a shot aimed directly at Wagner. So Prigo could have pulled stumps and continued to make bank in Africa and elsewhere, but he decided to throw a hail Mary instead.

You say that once they started there was no way back, which is true in terms of Prigo being a condemned man. But there was a way back from the brink of creating slaughter in Moscow, and that's the choice they took in the end. The bit that confuses me is why they decided to load all of Wagners top people onto one aircraft. This is a big no-no, and not even in military terms. Most large organisations won't have their CEO, Chairperson, COO, President, VP, etc. all on the one aircraft, so that if it goes down the company won't go down with it. Militaries and most responsible govts are the same. So when you're a very obvious target, as Wagner were, putting everyone on that aircraft was an invitation to their enemies.

But, this is Russia, we still have to be prepared for this situation to have been some kind of ruse and for Prigo to resurface one day.

Mark has a great podcast called In Moscow's Shadow.
The only Russia-dedicated pod that I never miss.
 
The bit that confuses me is why they decided to load all of Wagners top people onto one aircraft.


I would have thought this pretty obvious @johnny ... Putin is actually a lot greener than the west believes. He was trying to reduce his carbon footprint by putting all the corpses in one plane and also performing a cremation at the same time. This is also a sign of good economic management at a micro level. Only 1 aircraft, 1 bomb, 1 clean up team...



But there was a way back from the brink of creating slaughter in Moscow, and that's the choice they took in the end.

It is an unusual choice for a $$$$$$ war monger to take - preservation of the lives of others over themselves. I assume there were some pretty big egos involved!
 
He resigned today because of that.


The ss officer?


Talk about a crazy story! Surely this wasn't a total coincidence the old guy was in attendance and there was a massive failure of vetting this token in their rush to make a grand feature?
 
Autocrats gonna autocrat. It's the defenders and cheerleaders in free countries that support them that fuck me off the most.

People like these morally corroded human pieces of bacteria"








These Twitards listed above spend all their energy condemning the West/Israel (sometimes with justification) but will never condemn the actions of Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, etc. Their anti-Americanism warps their understanding of the world to the point that they care more about the actor than the actions. They will hunt down every potential failing of the West and contort themselves through a maze of contradictions to avoid condemning the same or worse actions by authoritarian and autocratic states. Fuck these people with a bulldozer.

PS - I wasn't aware that Pilger had died. Sympathy for his family and those close to him but no sympathy for the autocrats that have lost their apologist.
 
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