Sooo..., how long will it be until the bombs start raining down in Iran?

Slowman

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Irans belligerence started sometime in 1979 after the deposing of the US friendly Shah during the Islamic revolution. ...
And sometime in the 60s the US toppled what was a moderate and secular democratic government in Iran because it was anti-US, and even then they were worried it was becoming too powerful in the region. If you want to radicalise any nation's politics just get rid of a liberal regime and install a corrupt one like the Shah.

I'd say the belligerence has been building since this event. I think if left alone Iran will return to a liberal democracy, though it might be a long time until it is pro US! The fact that the Ayatollahs no longer rule and the head of state is an elected one gives me hope that this might eventuate. Even though the current one is crazy and a holocaust denier the next might be a bit more moderate. Iran's people will become more of a force as things liberalise and a nation that is beginning to prosper and enjoy the modern trappings won't garner popular support for war either.

I worked with an Iranian guy in IT and he was as educated and sophisticated as they come (got out before the Ayatollahs revolution). I'm hoping many still there are the same and just want things to return to "normal". Am I clutching at straws? The other question I have is do the Persians have any gripe with the Jews directly? Arabs see Palestine as Holy land but do the Persians? Do the Malaysians or Indonesians for that matter? They're all Muslim nations but have no direct link with the disputed Holy lands.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
And sometime in the 60s the US toppled what was a moderate and secular democratic government in Iran because it was anti-US, and even then they were worried it was becoming too powerful in the region. If you want to radicalise any nation's politics just get rid of a liberal regime and install a corrupt one like the Shah.

I'd say the belligerence has been building since this event. I think if left alone Iran will return to a liberal democracy, though it might be a long time until it is pro US! The fact that the Ayatollahs no longer rule
Wait..., WHAT?! Ahh, you may want to check up on that. Secondly, you may want to look past the surface and check out th real power bases. I can argue a very convincing case that the Sepah (IRGC) are moving to take power above all. Either way, if you think the President holds the top power in Iran you are wrong, both legally and practically.
and the head of state is an elected one gives me hope that this might eventuate. Even though the current one is crazy and a holocaust denier the next might be a bit more moderate.
Moderate like Mousavi who is heading up the protests or like Rafsanjani who is battling against Kamenei? Mousavi who pretty much stated the Iranian nuclear program and Rafsanjai who is probably one of the most corrupt guys in the Middle east?
Iran's people will become more of a force as things liberalise and a nation that is beginning to prosper and enjoy the modern trappings won't garner popular support for war either.

I worked with an Iranian guy in IT and he was as educated and sophisticated as they come (got out before the Ayatollahs revolution). I'm hoping many still there are the same and just want things to return to "normal". Am I clutching at straws? The other question I have is do the Persians have any gripe with the Jews directly? Arabs see Palestine as Holy land but do the Persians? Do the Malaysians or Indonesians for that matter? They're all Muslim nations but have no direct link with the disputed Holy lands.
Yes, they have a link to the Al Aqsa Mosque because it covers the dome that Mohammed apparently descended to heaven from. Islam didn't split until well after the death of Mo. All Sunni and Shia see KSA and Jerusalem as holy ground.

Also, not sure you understand how modern Most of IRan actually is. Per capita they have the highest university population in the world, good doctors, engineers, etc. They are also a bit more progressive than places like KSA and other Islamic countries. It is only of late, really since the IRGC and Basij have grown in power that the conservative streak has really started to rise.
 

Nick_M2r

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meh..

Me?

Im just waiting for SkyNet to become self aware on april 11th, 2011

Ya'll know we're fuked then...
 

Bermshot

Banned
I still havn't heard any thing about Israelii Nuke capability from at least 20 yrs ago by joint US assistance!
 

workmx

Banned
I give it till say....., end of March 2010.


The only thing that can stop it is a MASSIVE global shift in Eurasia.


2010 is gearing up to be a pretty fucking exciting year.

US/Iran/Israel/Russia

Russia/Baltics/NATO

Israel/Lebanon/Iran/Syria

Yemen/Saudi Arabia/Iran

Armenia/Azerbaijan/Turkey/Russia

US/Pakistan/Afghanistan/India

Burma/China/US/ASEAN

Angola/Zimbabwe/South Africa



Anyway, back to the bombing of Iran....
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I think that the war which has not technically ended, even though the shooting did long ago, is also interesting. This interest comes from the fact that it will not restart, despite repeated bad behaviour from one party. I am, of course, referring to: DPRK/ROK/Japan/USA.
 

smeck

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....................I worked with an Iranian guy in IT and he was as educated and sophisticated as they come (got out before the Ayatollahs revolution). I'm hoping many still there are the same and just want things to return to "normal". Am I clutching at straws? The other question I have is do the Persians have any gripe with the Jews directly? Arabs see Palestine as Holy land but do the Persians? Do the Malaysians or Indonesians for that matter? They're all Muslim nations but have no direct link with the disputed Holy lands.
Even the most autocratic goverments and/or the most secular beliefs can produce educated and sophisticated people. There were plenty of internationally admired Germans that didn't instantly become muderous swine just because Hitler called his Generals to arms. Regardless of the Guardian Council and whichever President they install, Iran will still manage to produce people that are very human and quite reasonable, and probably care about no more than the amount of food in their fridge and the grades on their children's report cards.

Do Persians have any gripes with Jews? I don't know, but I'd doubt it. Any ill will is going to be based in theological dogma as the massive majority of them would never have met a member of the other country. Those who have are probably far more receptive to accepting people as individuals, and would probably describe the people they meet as educated and sophisticated. You would have to go into the poorer areas lacking education and full of mindless propaganda to find the people brainwashed into bigotry, like you can in every country. Dig deep enough and you'll find tin foil hats, they're appear regardless of race or religion.

The issue here is not the people, its the leaders. The people of Iran don't get to pick their candidates, the Guardian Council do. Consequently all members of Parliament can be vetted and controlled by a group of self appointed religous zealots. There have been popular protests and student uprisings before, all have been suppressed. You have to ask yourself how effectively 'the people' of a country can speak when you have government militia like the Basij roaming around committing thuggery on a grand scale. Yes the people can eventually rise above this, but its going to take more than Iranian posturing. Perhaps the thought of a riots on a scale that overthrew Marcos, Ceausescu, Duvalier and the like, will weigh on Ahmadinejad's mind when he decides how far to push this Nuclear issue. Regardless something major is going to need to happen to get the public so wound up it will repeatedly go up against the militia squads, or to get the militia to disavow the hand that feeds and empowers them.

Edit: On the US presence in the region, this article looks interesting. Now Yemen are working with the US and it appears Bahrain are hosting a Carrier battle group. Are the Arabs far cosier with the US than they let on? As an ally of Israel the US has always struggled for anything beyond reluctact cooperation (apart from Saudi Arabia), perhaps Israel is no longer on the nose or Iran has made the US good people to be friends with, perhaps even Muslims are sick of al-Qa'ida.
 
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Middo

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Do Persians have any gripes with Jews?
I was watching on of those foodie type shows on SBS a few weeks ago, and apparently there are sizable Jewish populations in places like Shiraz. They didn't appear to be persecuted in any way, and openly identified themselves as Iranian first and foremost. Interesting trivia.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
It is Nov, and no bombs yet.
Yep, you're right and I can pretty confidently say that there won't be either (about as confident as I was when I said that they would fall by March...). Centcom gamed out the consequences of a strike on the nuke facilities and decided that there was more to lose (I have that game and can forward it if anyone is interested, PM me) and then withheld the weapons appropriate for that kind of strike from ISrael and told them that the US would not support Israel should they conduct a hit on Iran. Israel not having the capability or capacity to conduct a military strike on its own then backed down.

However, one may also argue that Iran was attacked, very seriously and well within my timeline that I suggested. Attacks are not only made of projectiles and explosives these days. I'm sure you've all heard of Stuxnet, right?
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
I think that the war which has not technically ended, even though the shooting did long ago, is also interesting. This interest comes from the fact that it will not restart, despite repeated bad behaviour from one party. I am, of course, referring to: DPRK/ROK/Japan/USA.
Interesting times on the peninsula these days. DPRK killed civilians for the first time since 1953 on Tuesday. I don't think the war will restart again either, however it is not outside of the realms of possibility.
 

Nerf Herder

Wheel size expert
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NCR600

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Interesting times on the peninsula these days. DPRK killed civilians for the first time since 1953 on Tuesday. I don't think the war will restart again either, however it is not outside of the realms of possibility.
I'm down with it if we get a new series of M*A*S*H.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Ha, absolutely!

Spent my youth growing up watching M*A*S*H each night over dinner, I even had a T-shirt with Hawkeye on it and my sister had Hot Lips on hers. My favourite episode was the one where they were supposed to be burning some old uniforms with lice in them that turned in to 'one regulation bon-type fire!" after Sydney Freedman advised Colonel Potter that it would be a good stress relief for the 4077. I never did go back and work out if Charles did touch his nose either....

Funny stuff.
 

Drizz

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Interesting times on the peninsula these days. DPRK killed civilians for the first time since 1953 on Tuesday. I don't think the war will restart again either, however it is not outside of the realms of possibility.
Would love to read centcom analysis. Imo considering the number of us allies lives will be made difficult I am not surprise. Just wondering what are they cooking up next.

Johnny: what you think about Chinese stance they dun have as much say in dprk as ppl make it out. I personally believe China is telling the truth and the PLA planners are crunching scenarios where the US are involved in any form of escalation.
 

Drizz

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Johnny: what you think about Chinese stance they dun have as much say in dprk as ppl make it out. I personally believe China is telling the truth and the PLA planners are crunching scenarios where the US are involved in any form of escalation.
Think I might found the answer.
 
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