Trump.....

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
@Nambra My reference to China above is based on a few things.

1) the likelihood that China is fudging figures due to the highly charged political environment. (largely due to their own making but as said above, they are playing this the same way as the Asian and global financial crises. They are being 'good neighbours' and acting for the global good whilst the US is arrogant, unhelpful and toxic. That's the narrative they are trying for at least and Trump is helping them achieve it) From what I'm seeing there are likely new infections and deaths, even in Hubei/Wuhan but the narrative of "we beat the virus whilst democracies are getting beaten up" is more important than being honest. Secondly, they will be at risk of reinfection for a long time as they have hundreds of millions traveling within borders and internationally and we're still awaiting a vaccine.

2) the rest of the world, that purchases China's wares are still undergoing the crisis. So China's factories may be starting to fire up again but with a global depression looming, who's buying them?

3) As mentioned above, protectionism in many areas is likely to increase - especially around PPE, medication and the related industries that can easily flip between those and other more profitable products (garments, etc.)

None of this is to say China won't come out on top, just that it is not a slam dunk, by any means as most don't believe the news they are giving in regards to new infections and their ability to stop reinfection next winter is still an open question. Then the longer-term economic questions loom as to how well they will be able to capitalise on being the first to recover, if indeed they are.
 

silentbutdeadly

Eats Squid
@Nambra My reference to China above is based on a few things.

1) the likelihood that China is fudging figures due to the highly charged political environment. (largely due to their own making but as said above, they are playing this the same way as the Asian and global financial crises. They are being 'good neighbours' and acting for the global good whilst the US is arrogant, unhelpful and toxic. That's the narrative they are trying for at least and Trump is helping them achieve it) From what I'm seeing there are likely new infections and deaths, even in Hubei/Wuhan but the narrative of "we beat the virus whilst democracies are getting beaten up" is more important than being honest. Secondly, they will be at risk of reinfection for a long time as they have hundreds of millions traveling within borders and internationally and we're still awaiting a vaccine.

2) the rest of the world, that purchases China's wares are still undergoing the crisis. So China's factories may be starting to fire up again but with a global depression looming, who's buying them?

3) As mentioned above, protectionism in many areas is likely to increase - especially around PPE, medication and the related industries that can easily flip between those and other more profitable products (garments, etc.)

None of this is to say China won't come out on top, just that it is not a slam dunk, by any means as most don't believe the news they are giving in regards to new infections and their ability to stop reinfection next winter is still an open question. Then the longer-term economic questions loom as to how well they will be able to capitalise on being the first to recover, if indeed they are.
There's not much point ruling the roost if your customers/conquests are broke. And it's not like China is debt free either...they are beholden to somebody somewhere
 

_______

Is an alien from 2007
In the decadent 1920’s, people were travelling everywhere and world trade was huge.
That's an excessively reductionist comparison with the recent past: in the 1920s people from less than 20 countries were able to travel widely, and arguably less than ten were profiting from global trade in any way conducive to what might be considered national affluence. A lot of the poster children had significant underclasses too, who were completely excluded from said lifestyle. It was a much more complex picture in 2019.

China will still face a united West
The West hasn't been united for some time. Current events do not seem to be promoting a return to unity anytime soon (c.f. Trump v. EU, BoJo v. EU, the very real possibility that Australia would eventually side with China on South China Sea sovereignty if sufficiently cold-shouldered by the US and placated by Beijing in other areas etc.)

I agree a vaccine will come fairly soon and will make a mint but what is the gameplan til then ?.
One step at a time but what happens when we suppress Corona infections but most are vulnerable.
Vaccine by late July is my bet. Who knows when safe/approved/widely available. At least 6 groups are working on 4 different types with WHO funding, ze churmans claim qualified success in initial stages; enough to attract some decently cashed-up dirty tricks from Washington's own Department of Dirty Tricks ($1bn buyout offer if the company relocates stateside). Mutti was not amused. Donny bekommt jetzt keine pfeffernuesse zum Weinachten. But the BND will keep the scientists company in this lonely time of social distancing from now on I suspect...
Vaccines are never money makers, they cost way more to develop, and they eradicate their own market. Cures are where the morally bankrupt pharma-plutocrat sticks the sensible investment...

Don't worry about after infections/pre vaccine, or are you perpetually concerned with getting smallpox? The youngest person I know who's vaccinated against it is 65...
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
the very real possibility that Australia would eventually side with China on South China Sea sovereignty if sufficiently cold-shouldered by the US and placated by Beijing in other areas etc.)
I can't put into words how implausible that is (not withstanding a national meltdown due to caronavirus/2020 election).

The shifts that would have to take place for this to happen are almost impossible to even imagine.
 

pink poodle

Our man in Japan
I can't put into words how implausible that is (not withstanding a national meltdown due to caronavirus/2020 election).

The shifts that would have to take place for this to happen are almost impossible to even imagine.
They're taking over mate. Only Pauline can save us. That's why I'm voting for her. I've even volunteered to join her body guard militia.
 

moorey

I'm full, couldn't eat another dick
They're taking over mate. Only Pauline can save us. That's why I'm voting for her. I've even volunteered to join her body guard militia.
Fuck me. Is it possible for you to resist replying to a post, regardless of whether you’ve formed a thought or have anything to add?
 

moorey

I'm full, couldn't eat another dick
Not today! You click that button if it upsets you. I'll be sure to give about zero ducks.
I put you on ignore again yesterday. I foolishly though you might have had something to add to this current discussion, and clicked to see your reply. Should have known better.
The fact that you give zero ‘ducks’ is the issue. You care for no one but yourself, and nothing but shit coffee and snow.
In the last few days, you’ve ramped up to replying to every single thread, every time someone posts....and I don’t recall one adding a single thing. Not. Even. Once.
I’m the idiot, I’ve learned my lesson. I’ll leave you to your echo chamber of bobble heads who seem to find you less tiresome.
I’m going out for another ride. Life is too good to read your shite.
 

pink poodle

Our man in Japan
I put you on ignore again yesterday. I foolishly though you might have had something to add to this current discussion, and clicked to see your reply. Should have known better.
The fact that you give zero ‘ducks’ is the issue. You care for no one but yourself, and nothing but shit coffee and snow.
In the last few days, you’ve ramped up to replying to every single thread, every time someone posts....and I don’t recall one adding a single thing. Not. Even. Once.
I’m the idiot, I’ve learned my lesson. I’ll leave you to your echo chamber of bobble heads who seem to find you less tiresome.
I’m going out for another ride. Life is too good to read your shite.
I'm happy for you and hope you enjoy the sunshine and fresh air. I went for a ride this morning and it was very refreshing. Then I had some coffee, took a shit, and looked at some photos from my last snow trip. Now I'm eating some coco pops, but if I can find some I might cook duck for dinner.
 

LPG

Likes Dirt
I'm happy for you and hope you enjoy the sunshine and fresh air. I went for a ride this morning and it was very refreshing. Then I had some coffee, took a shit, and looked at some photos from my last snow trip. Now I'm eating some coco pops, but if I can find some I might cook duck for dinner.
Make sure to give no ducks, sharing food is frowned upon currently
 

pink poodle

Our man in Japan
Make sure to give no ducks, sharing food is frowned upon currently
A valid point. Maybe just a Maryland or breast? Actually I've got some pork here and that would save a hazardous trip to the supermarket. You've really hit me with a Pandora of issues here!I think I need a second ride to try and find some focus.
 

hifiandmtb

Sphincter beanie
I can't put into words how implausible that is (not withstanding a national meltdown due to caronavirus/2020 election).

The shifts that would have to take place for this to happen are almost impossible to even imagine.
This would be one reason it would be difficult to swap allegiances:

 

rowdyflat

chez le médecin
Trump is demented .
Alliances are based on common interests, history, common language , culture ,race ...
We have none of those with China.
Maybe if you came back in the 22 nd century things would be different.
Its been said before but esp in times of crisis people are tribal and look for a common enemy . although we are dependent for trade ,we have no trust of China , most politicians are WASP males and dont understand China..
 
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