Why do you ignore the load on the hospital system?
This action is necessary because something like half the general population seems unable to fathom that social distancing, hygiene & unnecessary movements need to be enacted.
If we were not a society full of idiots, we could deal with this more easily.
Why not direct your questions to the stupid.
Its called a finite extensive form game.
The initial outcome 1 is hospitals are over capacity, outcome 2 is that hospitals are not over capacity. Note: it doesn't matter if hospitals are 2x, 4x or 20x over capacity. Patient outcomes once hospitals are over capacity will depend on measures (triage, field hospitals, paliative care etc) unrelated to containment (social distancing etc).
Balance this against the cost of a 20+% drop in global GDP and the cost in unemployment, bankruptcies, suicides etc to try and achieve outcome 1.
To me the benefit cost, when we already have an over and ageing population problem looks a lot like a inter-generational transfer. Except instead of wealth we are transferring lives from the young to the old.
At present our hospitals are pretty much at capacity with the norm life threating stuff of everyday life, ie heart attacks, strokes, cancer, trauma, flu etc.. So what happens to all the run of the mill patients when hospitals are over filled with corona cases? Choices have to be made who lives and dies.. Hope it’s not your child or partner..
But it will be my family. And not only my family but everyone's family unless of course you and everyone else can guarantee that staying home will stop all the mishaps that normally occur.
So ask yourself this, would you rather a sensible across the board protocol to triage patients and divert people who have a low chance of survival away from hospitals into palliative care. Or do you want the shitshow we are seeing in Italy where the massively over worked doctors are being lumped with all the responsibility for really heart breaking decisions?
And then ponder whether guaranteeing that at least one of your friends or family will become long term unemployed is worth a strategy with a very negative expected return.
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