COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

CHEWY

CHEWY

Eats Squid
nathanm said:
I disagree.

Couple of interesting stories recently by suitably qualified people about our current circumstance.

If you're going to do a lockdown you have to do it properly and instigate a full 30+ day lockdown. absolutely no movement at all. No supermarkets, no uber eats etc as that's how the virus will continue to transmit. This is impossible, the majority of people will simply refuse to do it.

What we seem to be aiming for is a combination of curve flattening and herd immunity which means many if not most people will get it and need to get it for this to be succesful, with the exception of vulnerable people who need to be protected.

Ultimately people need to be able to live some semblance of a normal life. They need to be able to excercise and get outside for their mental and physical health. MTB, bush walking and the like are IMO the perfect way to do this. In the bush and isolated. If done right, it should have zero impact on anyone else and be 100% safe, well at least in terms of spreading/contracting the virus.
Click to expand...
We are down to 100 new cases in the last 24 hours.
I feel as though if we continue the "lock down" as it is now for another 30 days, and start testing the shit out of everyone (if this becomes possible with more kits / new tests) we might be able to go back to some form of "normal" life.
Even if they keep the 2 person rule but let people have more freedom in where and what they do, just no gatherings/congregating of people.

30 day full lock down is a pipe dream, not possible, wont happen & no guarantee it would work.
 
S

SummitFever

Eats Squid
CHEWY said:
... and start testing the shit out of everyone...
Click to expand...
This would be ideal. There was a town in Italy where 3 or so weeks ago they managed to test everyone and were able to control the spread almost instantly. Testing everyone also gave a proper idea of the rate of infection and at that time already 3% of the population was infected.

At the very least, we should choose a few suburbs at random and just test everyone in the suburb to at least get a proper idea for community infection rates. The low community transmission numbers at the moment could be true or they could be as a result of a lack of testing.
 
CHEWY

CHEWY

Eats Squid
SummitFever said:
This would be ideal. There was a town in Italy where 3 or so weeks ago they managed to test everyone and were able to control the spread almost instantly. Testing everyone also gave a proper idea of the rate of infection and at that time already 3% of the population was infected.

At the very least, we should choose a few suburbs at random and just test everyone in the suburb to at least get a proper idea for community infection rates. The low community transmission numbers at the moment could be true or they could be as a result of a lack of testing.
Click to expand...
Yes, testing is absolutely critical. It is going to be the key to containing this.
 
rowdyflat

rowdyflat

chez le médecin
nathanm said:
What we seem to be aiming for is a combination of curve flattening and herd immunity which means many if not most people will get it and need to get it for this to be succesful, with the exception of vulnerable people who need to be protected.
Click to expand...
Agree but its a giant experiment and no one knows the right balance of death and disease v economy and normal life.
Herd immunity requires >60 % thats 1000 s of dead as a consequence ?
 
clockworked

clockworked

Like an orange
nathanm said:
I disagree.

Couple of interesting stories recently by suitably qualified people about our current circumstance.

If you're going to do a lockdown you have to do it properly and instigate a full 30+ day lockdown. absolutely no movement at all. No supermarkets, no uber eats etc as that's how the virus will continue to transmit. This is impossible, the majority of people will simply refuse to do it.

What we seem to be aiming for is a combination of curve flattening and herd immunity which means many if not most people will get it and need to get it for this to be succesful, with the exception of vulnerable people who need to be protected.

Ultimately people need to be able to live some semblance of a normal life. They need to be able to excercise and get outside for their mental and physical health. MTB, bush walking and the like are IMO the perfect way to do this. In the bush and isolated. If done right, it should have zero impact on anyone else and be 100% safe, well at least in terms of spreading/contracting the virus.
Click to expand...
Listen I'm not trying to be derogatory to your opinions here but there are some faults that are important enough to mention.
  1. Curve flattening and herd immunity are two different concepts. Herd immunity is an endstate. Curve flattening is a management system. We're not doing a bit of both.
  2. Need and like are also different concepts. You need to stay healthy mentally and physically, true. But you only want to achieve that outdoor. It is not inpossible for you yo achieve this indoors, in isolation. Its just much, much harder.
  3. The virus remains viable for hours in the air. you can be out in yhe middle of nowhere and still transmit it to anyone that walks through yhe space in the next few hours. Therefore one could not possible "guarantee" anything in that regard. It certainly isn't 100% safe
 
Nambra

Nambra

Definitely should have gone to specsavers
CMO Murphy says we’re already doing “sentinel” testing, which is expanding testing to anyone with flu like symptoms and telling GPs in hot spot areas to do the same, not just test those with known history of potential exposure. It’s still a long way from testing everyone, but until there is a test method that won’t involve lab work I don’t see how it’s possible to simultaneously test millions of Australians.

Our current test rates per capita are some of the highest in the world and our positive results are a very low percentage (<2%?) of the total number of tests, meaning that not much is likely to be slipping through the cracks. The combination of current lockdown measures, high rates of testing and exhaustive contact tracing seem to be effective in reducing the number of new cases.

Obviously a single asymptomatic case could unravel it all, which is why community transmission is becoming the new focus. Returning travellers quarantined in hotels are apparently testing positive too, but are at least not in the community.
 
Last edited:
K

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
clockworked said:
[*]The virus remains viable for hours in the air. you can be out in yhe middle of nowhere and still transmit it to anyone that walks through yhe space in the next few hours. Therefore one could not possible "guarantee" anything in that regard. It certainly isn't 100% safe
[/LIST]
Click to expand...
It’s viable in the air indoors (lab) for a few hours but the larger droplets that are most likely to infect fall down onto surfaces immediately. It’s the viral load you cop that will increase/decrease your chance of getting it.. Touching surfaces is how is the most likely way to get infected..

Let’s all be sensible and rational here, the probability of catching in the open air is negligible.. It’s not even worth mentioning unless someone sneezes or coughs into your face outdoors..
That is the info I have read from credible scientists, happy to be proved wrong..
 
clockworked

clockworked

Like an orange
Kerplunk said:
It’s viable in the air indoors (lab) for a few hours but the larger droplets that are most likely to infect fall down onto surfaces immediately. It’s the viral load you cop that will increase/decrease your chance of getting it.. Touching surfaces is how is the most likely way to get infected..

Let’s all be sensible and rational here, the probability of catching in the open air is negligible.. It’s not even worth mentioning unless someone sneezes or coughs into your face outdoors..
That is the info I have read from credible scientists, happy to be proved wrong..
Click to expand...
That would definitely be the case classicly, hopefully this follows suit, but it is still unusually long-lived
 
rangersac

rangersac

Medically diagnosed OMS
clockworked said:
They shouldn't be condensed into smaller areas, they should be at home
Click to expand...
Outside exercise is listed as an allowable activity in every state. Leaving aside whether you think this is the right thing to do or not (and personally I think it's very important for health and well being), because it's permitted then sensible provision needs to be undertaken to allow it to happen. Blanket closures are potentially counter productive. Here's an example, and yes it's a personal one so I have skin in the game, but I'm happy to be convinced if I am being illogical.

I live in Coningham, Tasmania, and over my back fence is the Coningham reserve, a 1000+ acre recreation area managed by Tas Parks and Wildlife. When I say managed, they look after the external signage and have a description of the reserve on their website, and they send a patrol around probably twice per year. Any on ground management (weeding, tree planting, trail maintenance) is undertaken in collaboration with Parks (i.e we tell them we want to do something and they assist) by the Friends of Coningham Landcare group and the Coningham Mountain Biking Club, both of which I am a member. The reserve has no picnic or camping grounds, toilets, gates to open, hand rails, and multiple access points, none of which are large car parks. So zero touchy surfaces to transmit droplets (unless you are the sort of walker who goes out of your way to touch every tree you walk past), and limited spots for groups to congregate. If I go for a walk or a bike ride in the reserve on an ordinary day I would be lucky to see one other person. However because it is Parks land it is now closed.

Less than 100m away at some points is a coastal reserve trail managed by the local council. It's a pretty narrow strip of land, mostly around 50-75 metres wide with a single trail running between a few small beaches. There's a toilet block at one beach and a few picnic tables and benches at several locations on the trail. This is still open, and friends of mine who's properties border this trail, estimate that foot traffic on it has tripled since the reserve closed. I've walked it a few times with the kids since closure and have run into several people both times.

The local roads have no footpaths, and it being quite a bushy and hilly area, nature strips bordering the roads are basically non existent. So in summary the options to undertake a listed allowable activity are as follows:

1: Walk/ run/ bike ride down the middle of fairly hilly roads. Unattractive at best, and with little kids potentially dangerous.
2: Walk/ run/ bike/ do beach activities using access points that limited, have surfaces for COVID transmission, and now see very frequent visitation.

Or I can:

3: Walk/ run/ bike ride in a 'closed' reserve where contact with other people is extremely unlikely (even if it was open) and surfaces for droplet contamination essentially don't exist

What do you think is the safest option?

clockworked said:
  1. The virus remains viable for hours in the air. you can be out in yhe middle of nowhere and still transmit it to anyone that walks through yhe space in the next few hours. Therefore one could not possible "guarantee" anything in that regard. It certainly isn't 100% safe
Click to expand...
I am interested to know where you have seen this information as what you are described is aerosol based transmission and there is no evidence that COVID-19 is transmitted in this fashion
 
Last edited:
nathanm

nathanm

Eats Squid
clockworked said:
Listen I'm not trying to be derogatory to your opinions here but there are some faults that are important enough to mention.
  1. Curve flattening and herd immunity are two different concepts. Herd immunity is an endstate. Curve flattening is a management system. We're not doing a bit of both.
  2. Need and like are also different concepts. You need to stay healthy mentally and physically, true. But you only want to achieve that outdoor. It is not inpossible for you yo achieve this indoors, in isolation. Its just much, much harder.
  3. The virus remains viable for hours in the air. you can be out in yhe middle of nowhere and still transmit it to anyone that walks through yhe space in the next few hours. Therefore one could not possible "guarantee" anything in that regard. It certainly isn't 100% safe
Click to expand...
All good, they weren't my opinions I was just para-phrasing what I read. Plus we're all bored so some healthy back and forward is keeping us entertained.

I'd be interested to read about how the virus is airborne and stays in the same airspace for hours, I'm gunna call shenanigans on that one. Same as if you walk past one of those filthy bastard smokers you catch a whiff, but if that stayed in the air for hours we'd all be walking around and through smoke hazes??
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top