Nerfonomics

hifiandmtb

hifiandmtb

Sphincter beanie
What are we supposed to be looking at?

You are showing CommBank's stats on home loans - this doesn't represent the broader economy.

Besides, there is strong evidence that we are entering a k-shaped recovery (well...we still haven't recovered shit as govt intervention is still rife).
 
dirtdad

dirtdad

Wants to be special but is too shy
Rates are super low. People will still borrow. Loan data will lag unemployment figures. People hold on if they can. Lenders are asking whether Covid-19 will affect your job and ability to repay. But people will still lie on forms if it gets them the house they want now. This is owner occupiers though.

My bet is that lots of investors are in the red this year for rental/airbnb income in city areas. But in regional areas, holiday home rentals are probably still doing fine, or at least recovering now total lockdowns are over. In any event, some will just be able to write off a bigger loss this year, and hope that capital gains make up for it in the long run. [edited for speling]
 
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Nerf Herder

Nerf Herder

Wheel size expert
hifiandmtb said:
What are we supposed to be looking at?

You are showing CommBank's stats on home loans - this doesn't represent the broader economy.

Besides, there is strong evidence that we are entering a k-shaped recovery (well...we still haven't recovered shit as govt intervention is still rife).
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Not meant to provide an overall view ... most economists or those forecasting, take smaller pieces of info, or parameters and cobble them together to form part of their overall forecasting model.

More complex econometrics models add weights to these parameters based on current "feel" of the economist or investment committee et al.

I'm nowhere near that sophisticated ... but in my own forecasting I'm mainly looking at consumer sentiment and related factors like homeloans, bank deposits, card spending ... which you'll see is main what I'm posting up.

All you are looking at are trends from CBA, which holds the largest share of Australia's home loan and property investment loan book.
I didnt provide any media clippings sorry ... But @dirtdad made a good crack at interpretation ... which I thought was pretty solid and as FYI fits my logic fairly well ...

Definitely agree with the K shape ... presuming it means various parts of the economy are running at different speeds and levels of confidence.

As an aside ... the more I've thought about this thread, the more I distrust or place less weight on media ... except the Fin Review, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times ... I see these are more factual ... although still open to interpretive differences. Was cryptic of me ... but I was thinking of this re my ref to media and unemployment related negative pieces ... again sorry for not filling in more detail.

just on here for PR and read above CBA this morning ...
 
Freediver

Freediver

I can go full Karen
Barley was never really a worry, it's a commodity and it's prices are effected by global demand, not just one country. If they stop buying ours then they had to get it from elsewhere which was always going to create holes in other markets. It's the effect on producers of luxury items like wine and crays that's the problem.
 
pink poodle

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
Flow-Rider said:
Some of those farms carry huge bank loans but I love it how they always cry poor but have the latest V8 Landcruisers.
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I grew up in a farming town an have no doubt that agriculture is hard and unpredictable work. It is also essential to the food supply. But as with any business there is plenty of ways to move cash around.

I'd probably be less hostile to their begging the government for support and crying poor if the policies of the political party that they are most closely aligned with showed a similar sympathy to other members of the public who need support.
 
Flow-Rider

Flow-Rider

Burner
pink poodle said:
I grew up in a farming town an have no doubt that agriculture is hard and unpredictable work. It is also essential to the food supply. But as with any business there is plenty of ways to move cash around.

I'd probably be less hostile to their begging the government for support and crying poor if the policies of the political party that they are most closely aligned with showed a similar sympathy to other members of the public who need support.
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I don't think they get the same support as they used to, the cost of running farms is huge now days. I know they even have to pay to use bore or river water here in Qld, it used to be free for all 20 + years ago.
 
rowdyflat

rowdyflat

chez le médecin
No water is free these days .
There is a agency set up to ensure that.
Ours is Goulburn Murray Water an incompetent grifter blood sucker agency .
I have said that when a govt works out how, there will be an oxygen tax for breathing based on the number of occupants in your house.
Here in Victoria they charge you to use your own dam water by charging rent for the land it is on.
This includes a permanent waterway, a spring on crown land and they tried to make you buy old water races from the goldrush days.
Kennett had all sorts of good ideas.
 
Flow-Rider

Flow-Rider

Burner
It's just another way of taxing really, I understand why they do it but not much is free or prosperous these days unless you're a thieving cheat of some type.

Friends of mine bought a home in a rural town just out of Brisbane, the house was supposedly in a flood zone with a creek at the back, neighbours had told them the creek stopped flowing ever since the builders built the satellite suburb a few Kms away, I bet they never paid for the water.
 
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