Nerfonomics

Nerf Herder

Nerf Herder

Wheel size expert
This is purely aimed at me ... always good to look back and see how stupid I was or more hopefully what a flaming guru I be.

I will make wild And not-so-wild predictions on dollar direction, general economics and other BS I find interesting re Finance and the such.
Be prepared to be awed, applaud at will and or otherwise ridicule as you see fit.

I’ll be mainly focused on the USD, AUD and AU Economics ... but trade, politically motivated economics, market psychology Is all colour that affects every ‘anal-ist’s’ view point.

feel free to share articles to support or debunk my shizzle. or general finance and economic stuff. All in the name of fun and nerdery. I particularly enjoy contrarian approaches or otherwise the George Costanza School of decision making.

disclaimer. I am not a professional economist, or financial advisor, but I am above layman and kinda well read. This is a mountain bike forum for old people that haven’t quite fully moved on to other forms of social media ... possibly because they have friends here and or enjoy the semi anonymity that a weird avatar and weirder name offers.

More to come ...
 
Post COVID bounce.

With the benefit of my sparkling crystal ball.
- AUD/USD at either 0.73 or 0.66 by 30 June 20.
Of course I’m hedging my bets ... generally the short term trend is up due to US negative influences ... but China production is up faster then analysts forecast ... the 2 rates are purely to reflect volatility ... Effects of psychological barriers at 0.70, .75 and .65 so I’m bracketing, and uncertainty on what the corporate world will do re employment*
  • from a business point of view there is no real trend I’d bank on and so many potential sources of shock(s) that could drive the $A down but also up. US 2020 election, China trade wars and other related impacts (India/China), unemployment, corporate greed ...
  • *unemployment. My left bias says a small number if corporates will stupidly defend profit margins instead of broader economy / employment and under go a cycle of redundancies... my optimistic side hopes the Libs will attempt to hit back and there will be a back lash ... but this will cause lots of short term pain. The more prudent CEOs will have held back on action.
  • I hope it won’t be the Banks, as the Royal commission should have taught them stuff right ... but it will be.
Miners will be safe. Travel industry has already gone thru it and they will take the opportunity to reemploy at lower levels ..
Just because. Tourism, will hopefully benefit from ‘cabin fever’ ... but will be narrow.

longer term AUD/USD 31 Dec 2020
Off the cuff ... I’ll review later when I’ve had more time to look (from a business point of view I have sub-consciously hedged already) ... 0.65

more to come ..
I’ll try and get supporting articles/research in but will be slow ... but will be date stamped I think.

edit: sorry ... forgot to add why a bounce.
Covid is a massive shock yes ... but it’s self induced ... fundamentals are still there. Taking away global politics (China, US)
AU Fundamentals are still strong, commodities are solid, volume is up, price is trending up, employment has been consistent if not trending up. This is the driver.
Education will be hammered in the short term by China ... but they will just stop spending on buildings and or acquisitions ... are they really going to cut academics ... admin staff yeah ok.
Farm commodities will find other markets.

Australia’s fundamentals are strong ... all the negatives are psychological... potential for unemployment ... media ... govt talking us down ... but RBA has shifted recently ... the message is cautious ... but shift none the less.

the media is there to scare us. Meh
 
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@fatboyonabike ... Tulips are the next big thing ... 1 = 0.0000018967 BitCoin ... you need to be able to find me on the dark web to buy and sell on the secondary boards My partners and I created. #hottulips.
 
This is what I am seeing, feel free to chime in.
lots of big business will be dictated by shareholders wanting returns, this will come at a cost of pay and conditions for employees..unfortunately for the employee at the other end, because the market is weak, they are unable to vote with their feet and go off to find a better job..this will drive the divide between rich and poor and mental health and depression issues through the roof....worrying times ahead!
 
This is where I think the next big structural shift will come from.
I personally don’t think it is fair to say 4 days a week is more productive and therefore should be at the same salary cost.

The natural argument is to factor in commute times And lost efficiencies during the day ... but is that to the employers benefit or the employees benefit? The answer is that it benefits both! So any Cost/benefits should be shared right?
 
Nerf Herder said:
This is where I think the next big structural shift will come from.
I personally don’t think it is fair to say 4 days a week is more productive and therefore should be at the same salary cost.
Click to expand...
not more productive but as productive as 5 days if you dangle that carrot to employee;s & get them to respond to emails..i think same salary is pushing it, maybe 90%
Nerf Herder said:
The natural argument is to factor in commute times And lost efficiencies during the day ... but is that to the employers benefit or the employees benefit? The answer is that it benefits both! So any Cost/benefits should be shared right?
Click to expand...
which big business with shareholders will agree to that share benefits apart from some token crumbs..lost efficiencies = bullshite meetings
 
Until Rona arrived I was 12hr x 3 days, 1 off, 12 x 3, 7 days off. The working block was a tough slog, but the 7 off was pretty nice. It would've been more productive if they found me an off-sider
 
Nerf Herder said:
https://apple.news/AtM8hs5xYROK_MlT2De4MCQ

just to support my story of ‘we aren’t doing that bad’ ...
If anything we are doing pretty good, relatively speaking. Of course, those that are unemployed are not lucky and good luck to them.
Click to expand...
I think you are right when you when you combine our good fortune on infections and for the second time we are benefiting from Brazil's misfortune on Iron Ore pricing. Last time was the dam collapse/s tragedy now COVID-19, things are looking far better than they could be. I still find it hard to believe everything is not going to go to hell in a handbasket at some point though. How is the S&P 500 back where it was in early Jan? The world seems such a long way from normal, especially in the US.

I'm theoretically on a 4 day week at the moment, apart from when I have to go in and not be paid. I did it a while ago and I think it works pretty well, not sure the world is ready for it even if some companies have already shown it works, seem to recall some Scandinavian companies have bene using it effectively? Anyway quick google gave me different companies all seemingly with positive feedback.

https://www.workstars.com/recogniti...-a-four-day-working-week-and-what-they-found/

All I know is that if I can definitely get the day off then I get 2 proper rides in a week not 1 :) and that has to be a massive benefit!
 
Daniel Hale said:
not more productive but as productive as 5 days if you dangle that carrot to employee;s & get them to respond to emails..i think same salary is pushing it, maybe 90%

which big business with shareholders will agree to that share benefits apart from some token crumbs..lost efficiencies = bullshite meetings
Click to expand...
I was about to go on a lecture tour ... but after rereading your comment ... I think we agree.
I went around the long way ... but 1/5 = 20% ... 50:50 split = 10% ... take 90% of current wage ... so makes sense to me :)

the Scandinavian experience is that productivity increases with a 4day working week, Eg on a Thursday there is an increase in productivity as staff try to clear workloads prior to the ‘weekend’ ...

I sight the western experience of ‘FriYay’ ... to counter this :) I see Thursday just becomes FriYay for the vast majority of the workforce :) ... let’s not forget sickie Monday, leave early FriYay ... and The semi annual Long long weekend of FriYay + sickie Monday.
 
Nerf Herder said:
I was about to go on a lecture tour ... but after rereading your comment ... I think we agree.
I went around the long way ... but 1/5 = 20% ... 50:50 split = 10% ... take 90% of current wage ... so makes sense to me :)

the Scandinavian experience is that productivity increases with a 4day working week, Eg on a Thursday there is an increase in productivity as staff try to clear workloads prior to the ‘weekend’ ...

I sight the western experience of ‘FriYay’ ... to counter this :) I see Thursday just becomes FriYay for the vast majority of the workforce :) ... let’s not forget sickie Monday, leave early FriYay ... and The semi annual Long long weekend of FriYay + sickie Monday.
Click to expand...

It could be argued there will be a drop in sickies, more time at home for duel income households=more time to do the things that are required to run the house, less sickies needed. Happier, less stressful homelife makes for happier more productive workers?
I’ve just noticed when people at works home lives turn to shit, their performance tanks. I’m guilty of that too.

fucknoes I’ve thrown down a fair few sickies earlier this year for last minute “oh fuck” moments after a two day weekend wasn’t enough time to sort my shit.
 
There will always be tasks that must be done during working hours. Exciting adult shit like banking / passports / centrelink.

Maybe we could split the 4 day week with some people on Monday and some on Friday so that after the joys of long weekends faded people would have an occasional "jobs" day and 2 rest days.
 
Nerf Herder said:
I was about to go on a lecture tour ... but after rereading your comment ... I think we agree.
I went around the long way ... but 1/5 = 20% ... 50:50 split = 10% ... take 90% of current wage ... so makes sense to me :)

the Scandinavian experience is that productivity increases with a 4day working week, Eg on a Thursday there is an increase in productivity as staff try to clear workloads prior to the ‘weekend’ ...

I sight the western experience of ‘FriYay’ ... to counter this :) I see Thursday just becomes FriYay for the vast majority of the workforce :) ... let’s not forget sickie Monday, leave early FriYay ... and The semi annual Long long weekend of FriYay + sickie Monday.
Click to expand...

I've spent the last 3 years working 4 day weeks, with Friday off as my day to spend with the pre-school aged kids. This was possible though my works purchased leave policy, so I paid for each day off proportionally.

My experience was that I got just as much work done in 4 as I had been previously in 5. I was slated as 100% FTE on projects & met the same deadlines as everyone else. Granted, that was with the occasional email, teleconference or stint on my laptop on Fridays, but once established as my working week I was largely left alone.

Also, 4 day weeks are the bomb. That day at home, other than getting plenty of 1:1 time with my kids, allowed us to get all the chores done around the house (wife also did 4 days with Thursday off), get shopping & stuff done with busy rushing & generally just RELAX. So I'd argue the chance of me throwing a sicking in a 4 day week cycle was a lot lower than the chance of me doing it in a 5, just because I was so much happier with the balance overall.

A thick skin is sometimes required though; there's been cases of one of the angrier clients swearing her head off in the office with 'Where the fuck is James, who the fuck agreed to let him work 4 day weeks'. She was a real charmer, but she came around eventually once she realised the work was actually getting done regardless.

I think the biggest hurdle to people doing it in my line of work at the moment is the culture. Unfortunately, my new job requires me there 5 days a week to do about 10 days work now. I honestly don't think I'm getting anymore done, but there is a serious presentee-ism vibe with the client. Very few seem to get that I'd rather get paid less & work less (time) to spend that time with my kids.

It's all short term though, I've just signed up to the pay cut for another 8 weeks purchased leave, so 4 day weeks are coming back. I figure I never really had the extra pay anyway. The last 8 months have been a bonus & time to get back to whats important, which is: riding & teaching the kids to ride.
 
I think one's economic view of the future depends on your general demeanour .
I am pleased you are having a go.
Still remember " predictions are difficult especially about the future "
I am a pessimist these days so i think the market is breathing a sigh of relief but the fundamentals arent that rosy.
As the job keeper and job seeker are withdrawn and the level of Corona virus in most of the world continues and the level of debt hits home , I think the tide will go out.
Travel, immigration and foreign student education are knackered and if the govts open the borders under pressure, the infections will start again.
People in Australia are no longer careful about SD and other infections eg gastro and colds are starting for the first time in 2 months.
 
Jim Junkie said:
It's all short term though, I've just signed up to the pay cut for another 8 weeks purchased leave
Click to expand...

Prior to about 2 years ago, I was on 10 weeks leave (4 + 6 purchased). Best thing ever. Holidays were never in deficit and took mental days off to just go for a ride mid week. From the my bosses perspective, win for them, pay me slightly less, and let me take the time off, because it beats me wastinga few hours a day browsing RB and figuring out what bike bits to buy.
 
Nerf Herder said:
https://www.commbankresearch.com.au...wMDZQZlgzRUFLOmFsYW5AbGlua3Nwb3J0cy5jb20uYXU=

Consumer sentiment up.
Job security fears down - Maybe premature but a good sign.
Personal loans down ... which is just fracking smart right
Click to expand...
yep unemployment rate seems ok, i don’t think we’ll see a big jump when job keeper ends either, see sydney cbd was by far the biggest take up of jobkeeper, then melb cbd..cairns was top5, due to tourism of 0
people don’t need personal loans when u can draw down 20K of super;)
PS i did hear there are not enough liquidators on the ground to wrap u all the failing & about to fail businesses
 
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