What are we supposed to be looking at?
You are showing CommBank's stats on home loans - this doesn't represent the broader economy.
Besides, there is strong evidence that we are entering a
k-shaped recovery (well...we still haven't recovered shit as govt intervention is still rife).
Not meant to provide an overall view ... most economists or those forecasting, take smaller pieces of info, or parameters and cobble them together to form part of their overall forecasting model.
More complex econometrics models add weights to these parameters based on current "feel" of the economist or investment committee et al.
I'm nowhere near that sophisticated ... but in my own forecasting I'm mainly looking at consumer sentiment and related factors like homeloans, bank deposits, card spending ... which you'll see is main what I'm posting up.
All you are looking at are trends from CBA, which holds the largest share of Australia's home loan and property investment loan book.
I didnt provide any media clippings sorry ... But
@dirtdad made a good crack at interpretation ... which I thought was pretty solid and as FYI fits my logic fairly well ...
Definitely agree with the K shape ... presuming it means various parts of the economy are running at different speeds and levels of confidence.
As an aside ... the more I've thought about this thread, the more I distrust or place less weight on media ... except the Fin Review, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times ... I see these are more factual ... although still open to interpretive differences. Was cryptic of me ... but I was thinking of this re my ref to media and unemployment related negative pieces ... again sorry for not filling in more detail.
just on here for PR and read above CBA this morning ...