COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

[Ackland]

I've switched to cash portfolio.

With my super, I can switch my investment option daily (if I want).

It's just timing chucking it back into growth portfolio

 

[pink poodle]

Here's a superannuation hypothetical for the forum, it probably has too many assumptions to be considered practical for most people but given the opportunity to take $10k from your super or redraw $10k against a mortgaged asset which would be the better option?

While everyone has different circumstances to take into consideration, I'd be going mortgage redraw. This would be doubled down as my option of the mortgage in question has a tax deductible interest component. But I have been brain washed into the "super is sacred" mind set. King Pal wouldn't want you touching the super.

Purpose of drawing down would also be a consideration.

 

[Litenbror]

Not only is the current testing regime not going to provide an accurate measure of presence in the community, it automatically increases the probability of detecting COVID-19 than if you took a random selection of the population. Here's why:

The current criteria (according to the healthdirect website):

• You have returned from overseas in the past 14 days and you develop respiratory illness with or without fever
• You have been in close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case in the past 14 days and you develop respiratory illness with or without fever
• You have severe community-acquired pneumonia and there is no clear cause
• You are a healthcare worker who works directly with patients and you have a respiratory illness and a fever

So basically the testing is only being done on sick people! However if we accept that the 147,000 tests undertaken is true (and IMHO it would be ballsy of Hunt to state that without some real solid backup because the media is going to look pretty closely at that number, and it also is consistent with data reported a few days ago) then it's not all bad. Australia still has both quite a low population case rate and death rate

This is what I was thinking. Basic statistics for population estimates says if you only look in places they like you will overestimate abundance.

If we have only been testing those in the highest risk (likely hood of having it) range then we could be doing alright.

As I said earlier though I don't trust these slimy used car salesmen not to bullshit us in an attempted to save their money/arse by only telling us part truths.

 

[SummitFever]

Super redraw feels like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

 

[moorey]

I'd go further and limited shopping to locals, show ID at the door thanks . The local Coles staff told the missus that buses are dropping people off to shop at my locals and then take it all back to the city leaving us with less.

People are so selfish at a time when we need care and compassion.

Yeah, that’s been all but shown to be scaremongering myths

Take a deep breath and don’t assume what you see on Facebook is the unvarnished truth

 

[foxpuppet]

I'd go further and limited shopping to locals, show ID at the door thanks . The local Coles staff told the missus that buses are dropping people off to shop at my locals and then take it all back to the city leaving us with less.

People are so selfish at a time when we need care and compassion.

I’ve heard this story a bunch of times but yet to see one single shred of proof. Every time it’s a here-say thing. Our small local coles can deal with maybe 25 % of our suburbs households shopping across different days of the week, compress those into one or 2 days and shortages Occurred. Everyone was blaming hoarders and out of Towners but no one actually saw any of those things happen.
Folks were saying I haven’t seen this person or that person here before.....
I reckon I could recognize maybe 5-600 folks who are local, wouldn’t know names but faces. Our suburb has 17k there is no way you’ll know who is or isn’t local.


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[pink poodle]

No way man. Ray Hadley was in a rage about it...

 

[tubby74]

super redraw they said would be tax free - so if you've contributing at 15% tax in super its still better than the 32++% you would pay on it normally. and if you leave it in super its taxed less on the gains than anything outside. its a lot harder a call than to simply ignore it. I generally pay my super late in the year when I know how things are panning out, and really not sure what to do now

 

[Tubbsy]

The supermarket shortage thing is a supply chain issue more than a lack of items.

There's a misconception that there's an 'out-the-back' area with stock piled high just waiting to be popped on shelves.

The reality is that it's all timed to be delivered in almost the exact quantities and frequency that people buy things; they have the analytics down to a fine art with this stuff.

Therefore even a 'modest' increase of people buying bog roll and tinned tomatoes leads to empty shelves and panic buying.

The supply chain just doesn't cope with sudden shifts like we've seen.

 

[moorey]

I’ve heard this story a bunch of times but yet to see one single shred of proof. Every time it’s a here-say thing. Our small local coles can deal with maybe 25 % of our suburbs households shopping across different days of the week, compress those into one or 2 days and shortages Occurred. Everyone was blaming hoarders and out of Towners but no one actually saw any of those things happen.
Folks were saying I haven’t seen this person or that person here before.....
I reckon I could recognize maybe 5-600 folks who are local, wouldn’t know names but faces. Our suburb has 17k there is no way you’ll know who is or isn’t local.


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Agreed. See link in my post above from @rangersac

 

[DeBloot]

Here's a superannuation hypothetical for the forum, it probably has too many assumptions to be considered practical for most people but given the opportunity to take $10k from your super or redraw $10k against a mortgaged asset which would be the better option?

The 10k you take from your super was probably worth about 30k a couple of months (1 month?) ago
The 10k you take from your mortgage will be repaid at interest of less than or around 3% for the foreseeable future
Interest rates are unlikely to rise substantially any time soon
While stocks may decrease further before they start an upward trajectory, i don't think it would take much to outperform the 3% interest you are paying on the mortgage loan ($300 a year)
If you take money out of super now you are just locking in your losses

 

[Nambra]

Here's a superannuation hypothetical for the forum, it probably has too many assumptions to be considered practical for most people but given the opportunity to take $10k from your super or redraw $10k against a mortgaged asset which would be the better option?

Without thinking through the super thing in detail, I'd go with the super. Disclaimer - DYOR/not finanacial advice...

You've already paid 15% tax on existing super contributions, the redraw is tax free AFAIK but you will probably have to pay another 15% if you want to replace that $10k, so it's $11.8k gross income to put back that $10k (ignoring any gains that it would have made in the fund between withdrawing it and returning it).

Mortage rates will be very low for a very long time, if you took $10k from your mortgage at a rate of 3% and repaid it as a lump sum in 3 years it's probably cost you a grand in extra interest on the loan over that period. You have to repay it with after-tax dollars though, and if your net personal tax rate was about 30%, you'd need to earn $14.2k to repay the mortgage redraw. Add the $1k of extra interest on the mortgage and you're over $5k in 'costs' to loan yourself $10k for 3 years.

 

[_______]

i know its from 20 pages ago, i'm well behind, but this:

My mate who owns a cafe that usually does ok said he's fucked if they stop trading. There were already local pressures on him. If it's not mandated people will continue to trade, because they have to.

might be the most concise argument for a properly mixed economic model, much better than i could distill:

"let the free market drive profit, reward competition for the good times but dear god don't rely on commercial interests to put aside for a rainy day, prepare for and then absorb unforseen disasters etc. They Just Don't. Unless you regulate a safety net in for them."

Imagine if we'd had a mining tax (and similar) filling up an investment fund exclusively for use when the whole country was about to fall on its arse? Imagine if there was a "pandemic levy" after SARS (or MERS, or bird flu, or swine flu, or the pilot's strike, or... or... or...) that the travel/tourism sector were required to pay, imagine if hospitality and events permits included a "public benefit trading halt" surcharge. Imagine if insurance companies had to contribute part of their profits to a national safety net for when huge swathes of the country burn or an earthquake happens in Newcastle? (or if all insurance was state delivered in the first place, perhaps?) Business is really good at pricing in predictable costs, let them do that.

Might that be better than surprise, bailout, repeat?

It's all in the last four words of that sentence of Scotty's...

 

[Boom King]

The supermarket shortage thing is a supply chain issue more than a lack of items.

There's a misconception that there's an 'out-the-back' area with stock piled high just waiting to be popped on shelves.

The reality is that it's all timed to be delivered in almost the exact quantities and frequency that people buy things; they have the analytics down to a fine art with this stuff.

Therefore even a 'modest' increase of people buying bog roll and tinned tomatoes leads to empty shelves and panic buying.

The supply chain just doesn't cope with sudden shifts like we've seen.

True. The pipeline takes significant time to fill back up as well. I know of an independent supermarket in Essendon that shut half the store for three days, in order to restock shelves and reopen with strict limits in place.

 

[stirk]

I'm just relaying what someone who works at the supermarket observed.

Whenever I've been to my local shops I generally know the familiar faces as I'm there 4-5 times a week at random times and have also observed a huge increase in unfamiliar faces so people are driving around from shop to shop to buy stuff and I'll guess/hope they may genuinely need it as their own supply has run out so they are travelling to find goods. Who knows.

But I do think keeping things local could slow down the hoarding, even better home delivery only.

Fuck people are stealing TP from loading docks now.

 

[pink poodle]

They're stealing it from everywhere.

Also I'm having a ride. A large number of cars in the car park. Not many people on trail. But i did notice:

• local after school bike coaching is running
• running coaching is also running.
• a lot of people associated with this don't know how big 1.5-2m is.

 

[Haakon]

Older people would rather die than let Covid-19 harm US economy – Texas official

Lieutenant governor Dan Patrick tells Fox News: ‘Do we have to shut down the entire country for this? I think we can get back to work’

www.theguardian.com

 

[stirk]

They're stealing it from everywhere.

Also I'm having a ride. A large number of cars in the car park. Not many people on trail. But i did notice:

• local after school bike coaching is running
• running coaching is also running.
• a lot of people associated with this don't know how big 1.5-2m is.

I'm going to start breading rabbits.

 

[Litenbror]

I'm one of the lucky ones my wife and I can work from home and with a high risk person in the house we are allowed to.

What have I learnt in the last 2 days.

Teachers need to be paid more, much more, but not enough to send my kids home.

Fuck home schooling, period.

 

[Boom King]

People just don't get it.

Was just walking the dog in the local park and there was a group of a dozen and a half or so dog walkers, all gathered and chatting as of it was a normal Sunday afternoon.

I can't understand why we are taking so long to lock down everything. The sooner it's done, the less pain we will all have to endure.