These a bit of a narrative among experts in the field that the data shows China knew something was up before December. Possibly even as early as October.
There's another narrative along that one that the virus could have been an accidental leak from the wuhan virology institute that coincidentally studies among other things, corona viruses. Lots of sus activity reported around this theory, some with and some without merit.
The level of push back china has shown in allowing anyone to perform any meaningfull investigations is plainly suspicious. We may never know for sure, but it certainly looks plausible.
But IF China is infact hiding their knowledge of the original vector of the disease then its absolutely likley that things could have been different.
It's a bit naive to imagine it wouldn't be different if say they came out and actually said "hey we have a virus, it's real bad, you must do everything you can to protect yourselves" and suspended travel instead of what went on. Much of the record shows obfuscation, misdirection, censorship or plain lies.
Even with the virus circulating in smaller numbers early on, elimination wouldn't have been out of the question.
My suspicion, much like with a lot of what China does on the world stage, is they are lying and if they deny, deny deny, what is anyone going ro do about it? Nothing. The chance to come clean and prevent a world wide disaster passed quickly, so just deny. It's worked in the past, continues to work today and will into the future.
Just like there are no uigher camps, or other human rights abuses, no organ harvesting of prisoners etc.
It reminds me of the time my wife's dad drove his car through their brick fence while drunk. Car paint on the fence, bricks in the car.
"Nah wasn't me, somone backed into me at the shopping center and coincidentally somone else must have smashed into out fence.
How do I explain the paint? Must have been the same coloured car that smashed the fence.
Oh the bricks in the car? The guy that smashed the fence must have put them there"
He towed that line till he died.