Electric Vehicles etc

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
No dont mean that .
I mean that making predictions about laws 13 years out is good but tech could change dramatically by then and prices of EVs could drop dramatically, so no good handwringing about them being too expensive?
It's agnostic of what the tech is. It isn't stipulating a specific technology as replacement, but specifically banning fossil fuel ones. So could be hydrogen, EV, water, farts, crack cocaine, whatever, as long as its not running on fossil fuel. Its exactly the type of law change that needs to occur for achieve wide spread adoption and results. 13 years is a pretty good horizon given the general ownership lifecycles of cars.
 

link1896

Mr Greenfield
No dont mean that .
I mean that making predictions about laws 13 years out is good but tech could change dramatically by then and prices of EVs could drop dramatically, so no good handwringing about them being too expensive?
Also good to point out to ICE users that a curtain could fall bringing their value down.
Legislation is needed to set the conditions for business to have confidence in making decisions. To the average Joe, 13 years seems miles away. A large business investing billions, utilising 10 year plus modelling, it gives them confidence.

Especially for fixed assets with 20 years of finance funding and 50 years service life. Companies like MGA Thermal need this surety

 

Scotty T

Walks the walk
I had a look at the Victorian charge point map over the weekend and was surprised how few options there were regionally. Even large hub towns have none in many places. Hope a lot changes over the next few years.
It's happening.


We're doing a regional trip in August. Let's say we had a real world 300km range car. Let's say we followed the guidance on not falling asleep at the wheel, resting every 2 hours.

Day 1 - Canberra to Cowra <200km, have some lunch while topping up on the NRMA charger (<40 mins back to full)
Cowra to Parkes, drive around to the different things in Parkes, probably cover under 200km, charge overnight at the accommodation or NRMA fast charger.

Day 2 - Parkes to Wellington, 112km, no charger, then Wellington to Canowindra 129km, charge overnight. Or via Orange (extra 48km total) to fast charge before Canowindra.

Day 3 - Canowindra seeing some stuff then to Canberra is probably 270km, fast charge at Cowra.

I expect it won't be long until Canowindra has a fast charger. Ampol are putting in a network of chargers at petrol stations. So for that few times a year on average (if that for the majority of people) where a longer trip is done, it will be maybe 200km between fast/medium fast charging stations at the most.

Gonna have to make them much cheaper to make them desirable to all demographics contained in a state.
In 13 years everyone in the ACT except the SummerNats* crowd will have electric vehicles already.

* Everyone racing in the go to whoa will have electric cars because they will be faster at that than everything else.

That is some cool (hot) shit!
 
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beeb

Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
Legislation is needed to set the conditions for business to have confidence in making decisions. To the average Joe, 13 years seems miles away. A large business investing billions, utilising 10 year plus modelling, it gives them confidence.

Especially for fixed assets with 20 years of finance funding and 50 years service life. Companies like MGA Thermal need this surety

Thermal storage solutions (like the one you've linked, or molten salt) really seem to be the obvious way forward for easily deployable energy storage for renewables. Yes, there's probably some efficiency losses, but presumably would offer a better product lifespan and less 'rare earth' minerals (and associated extraction/shipping/costs) to construct than current battery storage systems. In a land of climate extremes, we're going to need massive amounts of storage potential just to help stabilise the grid going forward.

It's happening.

Sort of, and very slowly. It's lack of charging stations slowing EV uptake IMO. Also worth noting that in that article it's talking about a single charger per location. What happens if you rock into town and someone else has just stuck their car on charge? You wait for them for 40 minutes, then wait another 40 minutes for your car to charge? Not really selling it to the "range anxiety" crowd.

If I could afford an electric car, I'd still get one because the chargers are coming and realistically I could still do 90% of my upcoming regional location to Melbourne 'burbs and back again loop on a single charge, so I'd probably just top up while I was in metro - but it's an 'optics' problem for most of the folk that couldn't care less if their next car is electric or not.

I'm on the fence about whether my next car will be an electric or ICE. I'd prefer electric for a number of reasons (emissions, quietness, lack of dependence on fossil fuels), but when the pricing is currently ruling it out for me (unless looking at used Leafs with their lack of range and battery thermal management). Really hoping something decent quality comes along sub-40k in the next couple of years.
 

Tubbsy

Packin' a small bird
Staff member
Also worth noting that in that article it's talking about a single charger per location. What happens if you rock into town and someone else has just stuck their car on charge? You wait for them for 40 minutes, then wait another 40 minutes for your car to charge? Not really selling it to the "range anxiety" crowd.
This scenario is exactly what concerns me.

I was visiting a nice town off the Hume (Jugiong) which has a charger, a Tesla plugged in with the owner nowhere to be seen. What's the etiquette in this situation? Is that person entitled to leave it in until it's fully charged while people wait? I was having a look at the charger and somebody came over and asked if it was my car.

It could make sense to book a charger using your car's navigation, so if there's a bank of chargers google maps could time things so you arrive as someone's leaving. Would take a bit of agreement among manufacturers, but I guess they got Apple CarPlay and the android one working well. Obviously still need many more chargers, but they will come.

Any new car we buy will almost certainly be electric, but I think I'd like to see 500-600km real world range before we make the leap.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Sort of, and very slowly. It's lack of charging stations slowing EV uptake IMO.
Imo it's the cost as the primary factor. Cheapest new is some rubbish mg at 45k, then the average is around 60-70k new.

Second hand is expensive too and less is understood about reliability, battery life and replacement concerns y the majority of the public.

Right now most people can afford an ICE car in the low single digit 000's to get around in without needing to worry about the rest of the stuff
 

tubby74

Likes Bikes and Dirt
If I could afford an electric car, I'd still get one because the chargers are coming and realistically I could still do 90% of my upcoming regional location to Melbourne 'burbs and back again loop on a single charge,
I've got a semi regular client trip thats 300km. it should be fine, but its almost entirely highway driving which reduces range, and can be very cold in the southern highlands in winter, which reduces range. it's an out and back trip so i dont go far enough to the goulburn superchargers, and to my knowledge theres only an NRMA charger that may be in use or not working on the way. if i was just headed to canberra or melbourne that longer trip is well serviced.
on the other hand i think thats about the furthest I've ever taken my current car, and will have the wife's ICE for proper road trips. but more superchargers with more spots each needs to happen
 

beeb

Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
This scenario is exactly what concerns me.

I was visiting a nice town off the Hume (Jugiong) which has a charger, a Tesla plugged in with the owner nowhere to be seen. What's the etiquette in this situation? Is that person entitled to leave it in until it's fully charged while people wait? I was having a look at the charger and somebody came over and asked if it was my car.

It could make sense to book a charger using your car's navigation, so if there's a bank of chargers google maps could time things so you arrive as someone's leaving. Would take a bit of agreement among manufacturers, but I guess they got Apple CarPlay and the android one working well. Obviously still need many more chargers, but they will come.

Any new car we buy will almost certainly be electric, but I think I'd like to see 500-600km real world range before we make the leap.
Surely you'd want/need to be able to leave your car while charging rather than having to stayed anchored to it... Realistically chargers need to offer up an estimated time until fully charged (or a selected charge level, ie: user-selected to 80%), and you pay a penalty fee if you're not back to collect and move your vehicle in time. Or go really old-school and have valets at the charging stations! (Good luck with that, lol...)

Right now most people can afford an ICE car in the low single digit 000's to get around in without needing to worry about the rest of the stuff
Agreed @Squidfayce. The only reason I'm 'range aware' (lol), is because when I move regional, a one-way trip down to see my family in inner 'burbs Melbourne will be ~225km.

When chargers become more widespread, even ~350km real world would be enough for me. That's still roughly 3 hours driving on the freeway even after a few years of battery degredation. I'll be glad of a break after that many hours on the road.

Done right, I feel like charging stations rollout could really revitalise some medium size regional towns (if their councils have some kind of co-ordination with small businesses). If people have to stop for a half-hour to charge the car anyway, IMO it'll make them more likely to take a B-road than the freeway if they can stop at a nice local bakery/cafe and spend some time milling about an art exhibition/antique shop/farmers market/etc... rather than just stopping at a servo on the side of a freeway.

Imo it's the cost as the primary factor. Cheapest new is some rubbish mg at 45k, then the average is around 60-70k new.

Second hand is expensive too and less is understood about reliability, battery life and replacement concerns y the majority of the public.
I sort of agree, but without a widespread, multi-outlet charging network in place EVs will remain a somewhat niche product here. With some of the European nations pushing for 100% EVs by 2025, surely mass-production will offer up more vehicle options and reduced prices over the coming few years. But without a network to charge them on here, they'll still be a hard sell for the majority of people.

I'd also rather see more charging infrastructure in place rather than just adding excess battery range (and associated raw material consumption and weight) to every vehicle when only a fraction of people will use the extra range a fraction of the time. Realistically probably the majority of EV charging will be done at home, with high-output chargers in demand more for unplanned/out-of-area/long-range travel type driving.
 

beeb

Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
Going to be really interesting how the long term manufacturer support and parts availability fares with the Chinese manufacturers.

I really hope it's something they can get on top of.

Personally I'd be happy enough with something Corolla/i30 sized (ideally a small wagon body variant) rather than the slew of large sedan/SUVs currently being developed. They're already somewhat available in OS markets, but due to the lack of tax exemptions reducing demand here it'll be several years (at a guess) until we see them on local shores...
 

Tubbsy

Packin' a small bird
Staff member
Surely you'd want/need to be able to leave your car while charging rather than having to stayed anchored to it... Realistically chargers need to offer up an estimated time until fully charged (or a selected charge level, ie: user-selected to 80%), and you pay a penalty fee if you're not back to collect and move your vehicle in time. Or go really old-school and have valets at the charging stations! (Good luck with that, lol...)
Definitely not suggesting you have to wait with your car, more that the next person who arrives has no idea how far off you are. I don't usually have an issue with waiting for things as long as I know what I'm in for. Add more chargers and a lot more cars and I can see a few organisational clusterfucks developing.

I can imagine a situation where people rock up, crack the shits and unplug someone else to juice up for a bit and piss off.

There'll be a whole new spin on the 'fighting over toilet paper' genre of YouTube clips coming up.
 

beeb

Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
Definitely not suggesting you have to wait with your car, more that the next person who arrives has no idea how far off you are. I don't usually have an issue with waiting for things as long as I know what I'm in for. Add more chargers and a lot more cars and I can see a few organisational clusterfucks developing.

I can imagine a situation where people rock up, crack the shits and unplug someone else to juice up for a bit and piss off.

There'll be a whole new series of the 'fighting over toilet paper' genre of YouTube clips coming up.
Oh yeah, I'm imagining lock-on charger heads will quickly become a thing!
 

Calvin27

Eats Squid
350km real world would be enough for me.
The other side of the equation is degradation. 350km real world would be plenty for me, heck about 300, would be fine. But if the car does a battery life trajectory like the first gen leafs that's going to be a huge problem. Unless of course they make replacement easy -which in 2022 is a big not a chance.
 

Tubbsy

Packin' a small bird
Staff member
Oh yeah, I'm imagining lock-on charger heads will quickly become a thing!
Having said that, it would make sense that the charger links to the car via a VIN or whatever, and won't charge another until the account is settled.
 

rowdyflat

chez le médecin
It's happening.


We're doing a regional trip in August. Let's say we had a real world 300km range car. Let's say we followed the guidance on not falling asleep at the wheel, resting every 2 hours.

Day 1 - Canberra to Cowra <200km, have some lunch while topping up on the NRMA charger (<40 mins back to full)
Cowra to Parkes, drive around to the different things in Parkes, probably cover under 200km, charge overnight at the accommodation or NRMA fast charger.

Day 2 - Parkes to Wellington, 112km, no charger, then Wellington to Canowindra 129km, charge overnight. Or via Orange (extra 48km total) to fast charge before Canowindra.

Day 3 - Canowindra seeing some stuff then to Canberra is probably 270km, fast charge at Cowra.

I expect it won't be long until Canowindra has a fast charger. Ampol are putting in a network of chargers at petrol stations. So for that few times a year on average (if that for the majority of people) where a longer trip is done, it will be maybe 200km between fast/medium fast charging stations at the most.



In 13 years everyone in the ACT except the SummerNats* crowd will have electric vehicles already.

* Everyone racing in the go to whoa will have electric cars because they will be faster at that than everything else.



That is some cool (hot) shit!
Yes its just announcements though.
 

tubby74

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Oh yeah, I'm imagining lock-on charger heads will quickly become a thing!
they get a mention in the tesla forums already countered by a case that the sort of people who unplug your car aren't going to be careful about it.

I believe tesla already charge an idle time fee to encourage people to move from the charger once done, but there is also a debate about people in EV's who park in the spots when not charging. claiming they are EV parking spots. All these tales seem to be from california where EV numbers and chjarging stations are way ahead of what we have.
 

beeb

Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
The other side of the equation is degradation. 350km real world would be plenty for me, heck about 300, would be fine. But if the car does a battery life trajectory like the first gen leafs that's going to be a huge problem. Unless of course they make replacement easy -which in 2022 is a big not a chance.
Hence why my next sentence was "That's still roughly 3 hours driving on the freeway even after a few years of battery degredation." :p

Leafs are a bit of a false equivalence to most other EVs as they don't have any cooling system integrated into the pack. Anything decent EV with a cooled battery pack should give ~80-85% capacity after 5 years. On topic but on another tangent, I get the shits with all the EVs getting promoted by their 0-60 acceleration times. Constantly smashing out hard accelerations isn't going to do wonders for the life of the battery pack. They'd be better off restricting them a bit to favour battery longevity IMO. A 'slow' EV is still going to accelerate well compared to the average ICE vehicle.
 

rowdyflat

chez le médecin
Leafs are a bit of a false equivalence to most other EVs as they don't have any cooling system integrated into the pack.
No they dont OTOH they are simple and when the time comes the batteries are easily removed whereas Tesla's are a complicated unit.
Economies of scale dictates that someone will see a good business opportunity to replace batteries .
eventually obviously someone will invent a non conducting fluid bath thats simple.
 
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