Hes nowhere near his old form (2005 tour), but I rate him for the green. Unlike some of the bigger sprinters, he can climb. I dont actually think hes getting worse, or that much slower, he just doesn't have the fire on his legs to get that intial 'jump'.
L'officiel Le Tour 2010 Thread!
- Thread starter alchemist
- Start date
Bodin
GMBC
He won in 2002, 2004 & 2006 (not 2005) and even if he makes it to Paris in 2010, he won't be in contention by the time he gets there. Even a guy with a broken arm (Farrar) is finishing faster than him at the moment.
He's got plenty of initial jump (which is why he's finishing in the points), but no top end anymore (which is why he can't overtake once the sprint is on). He's had clear roads ahead of him on three occasions now (including last night) and hasn't been able to crank it for the win.
And now that the dumb-arse media dude knocked him off his bike yesterday, his body soreness is going to be insane, which means his race is getting worse. (Which is what I actually said, as opposed to HIM getting worse...). He can climb over rolling hills when he's part of a peloton, but once the big climbs blow the peloton apart, he's usually one of the first off the back and I don't see it being any different this year.
It's like watching the end of Zabel's racing days all over again. So close, but so far away.
setonz
Likes Dirt
Wasnt it something along the lines of 20 odd second places for the season?
Lanky Love
Likes Dirt
Im only repeating what was said on SBS last night, but he may not win a stage, but he has been in every sprint finish so far (correct me if I am wrong) and is getting the points. If he can make it to Paris he has what it takes to contest each sprint even if he doesn't win, which could see him in green. Im not putting my money on him getting green, but if he can get past the mountains and his injuries i think he could do it.
But who thinks this has been the best Tour in a while so far? There has been a lot of crazy stages and no one has been able to pick a clear winner for any of the stages so far. No team or rider is dominating and its looking like theres pretty even competition for the green and yellow jerseys.
But who thinks this has been the best Tour in a while so far? There has been a lot of crazy stages and no one has been able to pick a clear winner for any of the stages so far. No team or rider is dominating and its looking like theres pretty even competition for the green and yellow jerseys.
Bodin
GMBC
Absolutely. I am riveted good and proper for the first time in ages. Tonight is the first night that I'm going to try and see it through to 2am. I've been recording it and watching it in the mornings (on annual leave at the moment), but I can't wait that long to see the outcome of tonight's stage. It's where we find out if Cadel is killer or filler.
Bodin
GMBC
Speaking of dopers, unless he's got something up his sleeve for the final climbs today, Armstrong's GC chances look to have disappeared.
The other GC riders (Alberto, Andy, Cadel, Vino, etc...) are all in the right place. That crash before the start of the climb has cost Armstrong dearly.
Ham
Likes Bikes and Dirt
Yeah his chances are gone he may get a stage victory and top ten thats about it. Cadel is looking very strong.
Ham
Likes Bikes and Dirt
Yeah they are very much in charge, i cant believe armstrong crashed again though.
hifiandmtb
Sphincter beanie
I stayed up all night too - F1 & then this. Go Aussies! I was on the edge of my seat from the start of the last climb...kept looking at Cadel's poker-face wondering if he's going to crack or not.
Bodin
GMBC
He definitely cracked, but only when Andy attacked - dropped straight to the back of the back and was even behind Rogers for a few metres.
The real mystery (as Ham wondered) is whether Contador tried to go with Andy or not. You just don't know and that is where the race really lies.
alchemist
Manly Warringah MTB Club
Or was he playing poker
It's a long way to Paris to have to defend yellow with his team.
LordNikon
Uber Geek
It wouldn't surprise me if it was a calculated move by Cadel to hang back. He seemed to make sure that Contador couldn't match it and then stopped chasing.
I think Cadel may have even been secretly hoping that Andy took the yellow to keep the pressure off him and his team for the time being. Great to see him don the jersey again though. Go Aussie!
I think Cadel may have even been secretly hoping that Andy took the yellow to keep the pressure off him and his team for the time being. Great to see him don the jersey again though. Go Aussie!
Markymark188
Likes Dirt
There was a comment which Cadel made during the interview at the end of the stage that he had 'saved himself' for another otherday - or some words to that effect. I was left thinking he had not chased as hard as he could've.... Or perhaps he was just saying that to cover himself... either way.. great ride..
Bodin
GMBC
Be that as it may, but find me a TDF winner from the modern era who hasn't won a stage. "Saving yourself" over the last kilometre of a stage is a crock - by the time you're there, you're either done or you're not. Cadel's not going to win it without at some point proving he's the best rider there.
The reality is that I suspect he's not the best rider there. I'd love to be wrong, but it looks obvious to me that Shleck is genuine and the only doubt left after last night is whether Contador is foxing or not. Cadel is on the next tier down with Basso, Menchov, Sastre (don't write him off - looking very comfortable), etc, fighting it out for the third step on the podium.
Again, I hope I'm wrong. I was absolutely thrilled to see a team mate (Morabito) keeping him company for 99% of the stage. That's gotta be the first time that Cadel's had support up a big hill that I can remember - this is the thing going in his favour at the moment. Personally, I hope they don't try too hard to defend. I'd hate to see BMC blow all its firepower on arbitrarily maintaining the Maillot Jaune this early in the race.
Great tour - best for years.
alchemist
Manly Warringah MTB Club
Bodin, what a short memory you have. Is Óscar Pereiro 2006 modern era?
Before that was Le Monde in 1990, so probably not the modern era.
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