Russia Vs. America; Here we go again kids!

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
but it's a time of war
Its not by the way. This is a very important distinction to make. WE are not at war. the west is not at war. Russia and Ukraine are. If we start acting as if we ARE at war and start taking things away by force in other jurisdictions we have no right to, those jurisdictions effectively get pulled into that conflict at an offical capacity. No one wants a world war.

The sanctions are the only way we can do that as a global community "legally" and without jumping straight into teh pool, but again I've explained why the don't work the way we wish they would.
 
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Litenbror

Eats Squid
I know there's a shit-ton of legalities that are supposed prevent such things but it's a time of war and those legalities can easily be sidestepped - just look at Guantanamo Bay for example. The US detained hundreds of people without charge or trial for years using the extraordinary circumstances of 9/11 as a justification - Not that I'm condoning what went on there but I'm sure you'd agree nobody's going to take to the streets protesting because a shell company in the Cayman Islands has lost a giant boat.

On paper it's often difficult to prove the true ownership of assets but the intelligence services are usually clued up as to who is supposed to own what and if they take the approach that local law enforcement in the US takes when it comes to asset seizure (i.e just take it and force the concerned party to jump through all manner of legal hoops to get it back), I'm sure you'd soon see a change in heart.
I don't think that's going to happen because all of the Western billionaires won't like the precedent.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
I don't think that's going to happen because all of the Western billionaires won't like the precedent.
We already do it with drug cartel bosses money and this pussy-footing around because it might make our own billionaires nervous is playing exactly into their hands.

Its not by the way. This is a very important distinction to make. WE are not at war. the west is not at war. Russia and Ukraine are. If we start acting as if we ARE at war and start taking things away by force in other jurisdictions we have no right to, those jurisdictions effectively get pulled into that conflict at an offical capacity. No one wants a world war.
If we do fuck all now we WILL be at war. Putin will not stop with Ukraine and doing nothing will only embolden other countries with territorial ambitions - namely China. At this stage military measures are not an option but sitting with one hand clutching our pearls while the other has it's thumb up our arse is not an option either.

Even if asset seizure is in the too hard basket (which it isn't for a lot of things - superyachts for example. - they need harbours to be moored in, have to declared seaworthy by authorities etc. ), declaring individuals as persona non grata is something that can be done quite easily. Visas are still a necessity for travel and they can be revoked at any time - just ask Novak Djokovic, Katie Hopkins etc.

Putin's allies' lavish lifestyles are almost entirely lived out in the West. We can put a stop to that shit easily. It might not make much of a dent in their fortunes but what's the point of being a billionaire if all the fun things that billionaires do is locked out to you? That would be enough to get them to start applying pressure on Putin.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
We already do it with drug cartel bosses money and this pussy-footing around because it might make our own billionaires nervous is playing exactly into their hands.



If we do fuck all now we WILL be at war. Putin will not stop with Ukraine and doing nothing will only embolden other countries with territorial ambitions - namely China. At this stage military measures are not an option but sitting with one hand clutching our pearls while the other has it's thumb up our arse is not an option either.

Even if asset seizure is in the too hard basket (which it isn't for a lot of things - superyachts for example. - they need harbours to be moored in, have to declared seaworthy by authorities etc. ), declaring individuals as persona non grata is something that can be done quite easily. Visas are still a necessity for travel and they can be revoked at any time - just ask Novak Djokovic, Katie Hopkins etc.

Putin's allies' lavish lifestyles are almost entirely lived out in the West. We can put a stop to that shit easily. It might not make much of a dent in their fortunes but what's the point of being a billionaire if all the fun things that billionaires do is locked out to you? That would be enough to get them to start applying pressure on Putin.
100% agree, if you can put a dent in a country's economy, you're going to put a dent into the amount of technology they have access to. Biden's already got up on his back foot with releasing a presser about trade sanctions. It's about wearing down the main populace of Russia over the long term, they'll be blocking trade lines and cutting off main banks in the US, these rich will not have the stability of holding finances in Third World countries like they did in First World countries.
 

Asininedrivel

caviar connoisseur
If we do fuck all now we WILL be at war. Putin will not stop with Ukraine and doing nothing will only embolden other countries with territorial ambitions - namely China. At this stage military measures are not an option but sitting with one hand clutching our pearls while the other has it's thumb up our arse is not an option either.
That's what really worries me. If he's mad enough to do this he's unlikely to care if a little blurry crossfire heads into neighbouring countries that are NATO members. Then it really will become a shitshow. Poland, Lithuania et all have been screaming for weeks that this is 1938 all over again.

As unpalatable as it sounds, the best outcome might be for Russia to get bogged down in a total quagmire of an invasion against Ukrainian insurgents and the masses of casualties turn Russian public opinion against Putin. Hopefully a successful coup would very quickly follow.
 

Litenbror

Eats Squid
We already do it with drug cartel bosses money and this pussy-footing around because it might make our own billionaires nervous is playing exactly into their hands.



If we do fuck all now we WILL be at war. Putin will not stop with Ukraine and doing nothing will only embolden other countries with territorial ambitions - namely China. At this stage military measures are not an option but sitting with one hand clutching our pearls while the other has it's thumb up our arse is not an option either.

Even if asset seizure is in the too hard basket (which it isn't for a lot of things - superyachts for example. - they need harbours to be moored in, have to declared seaworthy by authorities etc. ), declaring individuals as persona non grata is something that can be done quite easily. Visas are still a necessity for travel and they can be revoked at any time - just ask Novak Djokovic, Katie Hopkins etc.

Putin's allies' lavish lifestyles are almost entirely lived out in the West. We can put a stop to that shit easily. It might not make much of a dent in their fortunes but what's the point of being a billionaire if all the fun things that billionaires do is locked out to you? That would be enough to get them to start applying pressure on Putin.
Absolutely agree, all I'm saying is we have constantly elected leaders chosen by our countries billionaires to run the place so expecting them to do something like this is unrealistic. Maybe we will see some real leadership but I'm not holding my breath @Asininedrivel has hit the nail on the head it's 1938 again and we have forgotten our history lessons.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
We already do it with drug cartel bosses money and this pussy-footing around because it might make our own billionaires nervous is playing exactly into their hands.
Sure, the money that is sitting in piles on the floor, hidden in walls of highly fortified compounds or in duffel bags in vans full of drugs or guns that get pulled over and the origin of which cant be better explained or proven. It's a bit different to taking something away which appear to have legitimate origins or have enough reasonable doubt as to not be able to be definitively proven otherwise.

Its worth noting that the cartels also participate in laundering money through the various international loopholes into legitimate enterprises which makes much of those assets untouchable. There are profesionals in this field that spend decades unraveling this stuff. It will however in the future be easier with stuff like blockchain making its way into financial markets bank ledgers etc.

Many of the worlds legitimate wealthiest people have various legitimate arrangements that are in these grey area. Those people have influence. there wont be any wholesale world wide changes that impact those people just so we can get one up on Russian oligarchs and kleptocrats. Its wishful thinking. We'd have done it by now if it was that simple.

If we do fuck all now we WILL be at war. Putin will not stop with Ukraine and doing nothing will only embolden other countries with territorial ambitions - namely China. At this stage military measures are not an option but sitting with one hand clutching our pearls while the other has it's thumb up our arse is not an option either.
Maybe. Maybe not. I mean They invaded Crimea. No one did anything. Georgia. No one really did anything. They blew a plane out of the sky with international passengers on it. No one did anything. They routinley poison people with nerve agents and radioactive isotopes to send messages, even in the UK. No one does anything. China has been abusing millions of people, claiming territories, moving into tibet and other associated territories. No one does anything. Bosnian war resulted in nothing of note on a world scale. Afghan and Iraq wars didn't result in anything really. Vietnam war etc. There are conflicts all over the world all the time that are outrageous but haven't resulted in a world war. I don't expect this to result in anything significant unless Russia starts invading more countries or uses nuclear weapons (the latter is highly unlikely).

Even if asset seizure is in the too hard basket (which it isn't for a lot of things - superyachts for example. - they need harbours to be moored in, have to declared seaworthy by authorities etc. ), declaring individuals as persona non grata is something that can be done quite easily. Visas are still a necessity for travel and they can be revoked at any time - just ask Novak Djokovic, Katie Hopkins etc.
Asset seizures are not simple. Trust me. I had to arrange the seizure of Nathan Tinkler's gulfstream from Singapore when he failed to make payments on it. In a world with all the legal documentation in order and laws in BOTH countries in agreement and in our favour, it was not a simple process and took the better part of a year to recover.

As to Visas - not all countries care for these matters. The largest western democracies are pretty tight on this stuff, sure, but its not the be all and end all. People get around this stuff routinley. The more money you have the easier it is obviously. again if it was simple, it would have been dealt with already. There is even evidence that some of the 9/11 hijackers entered the US on doctored passports.


About 10 years ago a ex arms dealer from the bosnian conflict was caught in Melbourne under an assumed name. He'd been living here for a really long time, had a family, paid his taxes, had a tax file, got into the country on a false passport and visa. NO ONE picked up who he was until he applied for a protective services officer role and the police did an extensive background on him. The guy felt safe enough to try that on. What does that tell you about the ease of evading sanctions and watchlists? We found out about it the following day when his assumed name came up on the daily watchlist and adverse media screening against our databases.

Putin's allies' lavish lifestyles are almost entirely lived out in the West. We can put a stop to that shit easily. It might not make much of a dent in their fortunes but what's the point of being a billionaire if all the fun things that billionaires do is locked out to you? That would be enough to get them to start applying pressure on Putin.
Being an ally or friends with Putin is not a crime. Unless there is a crime that can be definitively proven in the jurisdiction that is to do the seizing or there is an international co-ordinated agreement to seize (unlikely), not much can be done against these individuals. Sanctions are basically the only thing that is able to be imposed. But i can guarantee you that the majority of these peoples assets wouldn't be in the name of the individuals or the companies they are associated with that are making it to the watchlists - ergo, hardly effective. Some countries will not allow these people in (under their name) but how many countries are ripe for corruption? You think a Russian oligarch doesn't have multiple identities or a legitimate stack of Venezuelan passports to travel on? Does sitting on a south American beach really differ that much from one in the US? The world is a big place and you go where you can go that wont cause you troubles, and to the ultra wealthy, thats more places than you think.
 
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Squidfayce

Eats Squid
100% agree, if you can put a dent in a country's economy, you're going to put a dent into the amount of technology they have access to. Biden's already got up on his back foot with releasing a presser about trade sanctions. It's about wearing down the main populace of Russia over the long term, they'll be blocking trade lines and cutting off main banks in the US, these rich will not have the stability of holding finances in Third World countries like they did in First World countries.
familiar with Hawala?

i give some dude money in my country. and another dude in another country gives money to whoever I want (including me, when in that country). No banks involved. Ancient form of western union. Often used in the arabic world and all over the world where banking needs to be avoided.

Also can do it in a non traditional sense. Not all liquidity is held in banks. In the right circles, illiquid assets become extremely liquid - IE considder I give you a million dollar house or artwork for 900k worth of expenses covered by your legitimate mining company in my country of choice.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
familiar with Hawala?

i give some dude money in my country. and another dude in another country gives money to whoever I want (including me, when in that country). No banks involved. Ancient form of western union. Often used in the arabic world and all over the world where banking needs to be avoided.

Also can do it in a non traditional sense. Not all liquidity is held in banks. In the right circles, illiquid assets become extremely liquid - IE considder I give you a million dollar house or artwork for 900k worth of expenses covered by your legitimate mining company in my country of choice.
How easy is to be ripped off investing with dodgy people? I know a businessman that bought off market shares in the US in the late 90's, when he went to cash them in, his allotted shares never even existed in the first place. It's like China investing in the Australian housing market, you think that they don't have a housing bubble over there? It's risky as fuck, they build houses with no reo bar in the concrete specifically for investments. Criminals take big risks in laundering money, the general public aren't going to hear about it when they get ripped off other than people going missing or found deceased. Governments are watching bank accounts in places like Australia, I can tell you first hand. If someone sells a painting for 1 mil that money will eventually end up in a bank account somewhere, sure, the transaction could be done in an offshore bank account but like I said it's risky as fuck, who are you going to complain to if you're sold a fake?
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
How easy is to be ripped off investing with dodgy people? I know a businessman that bought off market shares in the US in the late 90's, when he went to cash them in, his allotted shares never even existed in the first place. It's like China investing in the Australian housing market, you think that they don't have a housing bubble over there? It's risky as fuck, they build houses with no reo bar in the concrete specifically for investments. Criminals take big risks in laundering money, the general public aren't going to hear about it when they get ripped off other than people going missing or found deceased. Governments are watching bank accounts in places like Australia, I can tell you first hand. If someone sells a painting for 1 mil that money will eventually end up in a bank account somewhere, sure, the transaction could be done in an offshore bank account but like I said it's risky as fuck, who are you going to complain to if you're sold a fake?
trust me, people who need to use the hawala system are using established hawala brokers or known associates. This isn't something you arrange with some random.

dont take this the wrong way, but you have a very narrow view of of how wealth or money is transferred. If i sell you a painting for 1 million cash, i dont have to put that money in the bank. Infact money doesn't even have to be part of the transaction. physical money or even the ability to access the physical form of it is of little worth when youre a billionaire. IF I want to put money into the banking system, laundering it through an array of transactions through legitimate business interests is not difficult for these people. The systems and shell corporations are in place and contacts are well established. You personally probably would have zero chance of disguising 1M, but not someone whos been doing it for 30 years.
 
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PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
Sure, the money that is sitting in piles on the floor, hidden in walls of highly fortified compounds or in duffel bags in vans full of drugs or guns that get pulled over and the origin of which cant be better explained or proven. It's a bit different to taking something away which appear to have legitimate origins or have enough reasonable doubt as to not be able to be definitively proven otherwise.

Its worth noting that the cartels also participate in laundering money through the various international loopholes into legitimate enterprises which makes much of those assets untouchable. There are profesionals in this field that spend decades unraveling this stuff. It will however in the future be easier with stuff like blockchain making its way into financial markets bank ledgers etc.

Many of the worlds legitimate wealthiest people have various legitimate arrangements that are in these grey area. Those people have influence. there wont be any wholesale world wide changes that impact those people just so we can get one up on Russian oligarchs and kleptocrats. Its wishful thinking. We'd have done it by now if it was that simple.
The US already has the Magnitsky Act in place where they have been freezing assets of Putin's allies. Yes, expanding it has been a shitfight particularly with Trump in power for 4 years but the foundations are already in place.



Maybe. Maybe not. I mean They invaded Crimea. No one did anything. Georgia. No one really did anything. They blew a plane out of the sky with international passengers on it. No one did anything. They routinley poison people with nerve agents and radioactive isotopes to send messages, even in the UK. No one does anything. China has been abusing millions of people, claiming territories, moving into tibet and other associated territories. No one does anything. Bosnian war resulted in nothing of note on a world scale. Afghan and Iraq wars didn't result in anything really. Vietnam war etc. There are conflicts all over the world all the time that are outrageous but haven't resulted in a world war. I don't expect this to result in anything significant unless Russia starts invading more countries or uses nuclear weapons (the latter is highly unlikely)
.

And it's time to put the brakes on it before it gets out of hand. uConstant appeasement is not working. If Putin remains in absolute power following this invasion how long do you think it will be before he starts claiming that the Lithuanians are blockading essential supplies from getting through to the enclave of Kaliningrad and are (along with fellow Baltic states Estonia and Latvia) subjecting native Russian speakers to persecution.
When that happens, we really will be at a crossroads as they are all NATO members and an attack on one is an attack on all.

Asset seizures are not simple. Trust me. I had to arrange the seizure of Nathan Tinkler's gulfstream from Singapore when he failed to make payments on it. In a world with all the legal documentation in order and laws in BOTH countries in agreement and in our favour, it was not a simple process and took the better part of a year to recover
Just because it's difficult, doesn't mean it shouldn't be done and if Putin (and to a lesser extent Trump) has taught us anything it's that if you have the authority, you can pretty much make up the rules as you go along.


As to Visas - not all countries care for these matters. The largest western democracies are pretty tight on this stuff, sure, but its not the be all and end all. People get around this stuff routinley. The more money you have the easier it is obviously. again if it was simple, it would have been dealt with already. There is even evidence that some of the 9/11 hijackers entered the US on doctored passports.

About 10 years ago a ex arms dealer from the bosnian conflict was caught in Melbourne under an assumed name. He'd been living here for a really long time, had a family, paid his taxes, had a tax file, got into the country on a false passport and visa. NO ONE picked up who he was until he applied for a protective services officer role and the police did an extensive background on him. The guy felt safe enough to try that on. What does that tell you about the ease of evading sanctions and watchlists? We found out about it the following day when his assumed name came up on the daily watchlist and adverse media screening against our databases
.

Russia's oligarchs aren't the people to travel in economy class under false names. They're private jet owning fat-cats who are addicted to the high life. Uralchem supremo Dmitri Mazepin is one of Putin's cronies. He literally bought his douchebag son a seat on a Formula One team by making his trucking company Uralkali the principal sponsor of Haas F1 (also known as 'America's F1 Team'). He also made Haas change their livery so that it deliberately resembles the Russian flag at a time when world sporting bodies were banning the Russian flag and national anthem from being used in sports events due to their doping. Now, he is not what you would call an anonymous figure and he's often seen lurking in the paddock at F1 races around the world. Same goes for Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich. The man's face is known to millions. -

Being an ally or friends with Putin is not a crime. Unless there is a crime that can be definitively proven in the jurisdiction that is to do the seizing or there is an international co-ordinated agreement to seize (unlikely), not much can be done against these individuals. Sanctions are basically the only thing that is able to be imposed. But i can guarantee you that the majority of these peoples assets wouldn't be in the name of the individuals or the companies they are associated with that are making it to the watchlists - ergo, hardly effective. Some countries will not allow these people in (under their name) but how many countries are ripe for corruption? You think a Russian oligarch doesn't have multiple identities or a legitimate stack of Venezuelan passports to travel on? Does sitting on a south American beach really differ that much from one in the US? The world is a big place and you go where you can go that wont cause you troubles, and to the ultra wealthy, thats more places than you think.
Again I'll refer back to the Magnitsky Act. It's already been used for penalising associates of Putin and his regime and while many South American beaches shit all over their US counterparts, neither of them are the French Riviera (which ironically has awful beaches). That's the lifestyle those guys crave and that's the only way to hurt them at this time.

*BTW. These aren't just my own opinions either. I'm basically parroting far more knowledgeable minds on the subject like former opposition leader and Chess Grandmaster Garry Kasparov who has been banging on about the dangers of Putin and how to effectively hurt him for years now.
 
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