Most insights come as a surprise: a burst of understanding, an elegant solution to a problem. This decade's main insight in climate science was a different breed. For 40 years, researchers had wrestled with three big questions: Is the world warming? If so, are humans behind the warming? And are natural processes likely to rein it in? In the past few years, climate scientists finally agreed on solid answers: yes, yes, and no—just as they had suspected.
There were surprises, and they were bad ones. The effects of rising greenhouse gases on oceans and polar ice were swifter than models had predicted. Yet, faced with the obvious remedy—cutting carbon emissions—the world balked. In the United States, even as the science grew stronger, a political backlash forced climate scientists to defend their credibility and motives.
The sudden reversal blindsided global-warming researchers. They had been issuing assessments of the state of greenhouse-warming science under the aegis of one organization or another since 1979; in 1990, the new United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) took the lead. IPCC's second assessment, released in 1995, asserted mildly that “the balance of evidence suggests” that humans were influencing global climate. But by 2007, IPCC had reached a solid scientific consensus: Warming was “unequivocal,” it was “very likely” due mostly to human beings, and natural processes were “very unlikely” to blunt its strength. The breadth and depth of the IPCC process seemed to drown out the small but well-publicized chorus of climate contrarians.
Developments around the globe amplified the message. In the 1980s and '90s, most researchers thought the projected impacts of rising greenhouse gases wouldn't hit hard until well into the 21st century. But by the mid-2000s, summertime Arctic sea ice was obviously disappearing, ice shelves were falling apart, and Greenland and West Antarctic glaciers were rushing to the sea. Hurricane Katrina inundated New Orleans just as scientists were debating how the greenhouse could intensify and multiply hurricanes. Even ocean acidification was an observational fact by decade's end. In April 2006, a cover story in Time magazine treated global warming as a given and warned starkly: “Be Worried. Be Very Worried.”
But powerful nations were acting anything but. As a presidential candidate in 2000, George W. Bush had pledged to regulate CO2; as president, he swiftly reneged and refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, an emissions-limiting treaty that 187 countries had ratified 3 years earlier. There followed years of efforts by the Bush Administration to alter a handful of climate science reports to downplay the possible effects of climate change, while lawmakers in Washington and negotiators overseas repeatedly failed to pass comprehensive U.S. or international regulations. Europe had some initial success with its cap-and-trade system, but even the World Wildlife Fund says there is “no indication that the scheme is as yet influencing longer-term investment decisions.”
A new Administration in Washington brought a change in tone but not in course. During the 2008 presidential campaign, Barack Obama pledged to cut U.S. emissions 80% by 2050 relative to 1990; after the election, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a law that did basically that. But the bill died in the Senate this year, after President Obama failed to secure a binding treaty on emissions at key negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009.
That November, the release of e-mail correspondence among scientists, taken from the servers of the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, had given climate science a jolt of bad publicity. Five panels of experts later absolved the scientists of scientific malfeasance. Even so, the event may have profoundly damaged public views of climate science, with political repercussions yet to unfold. Last month's U.S. congressional elections may hint at things to come: Most Republicans who won election to the House and nearly all Republican Senate candidates have questioned the fundamental science behind climate change, and a few of them denounce the entire field as a conspiracy. “The war on climate science and scientists that's going on now makes the Bush Administration look moderate,” says Rick Piltz, a White House climate official from 1995 to 2005 who now heads the watchdog group Climate Science Watch in Washington, D.C.
There are hints of movement. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is girding for battle to cut emissions of big power plants, and China, Indonesia, Brazil, and India have recently made their first-ever commitments to tackle emissions. But “climate hawks” have lost time and momentum, and many experts now think that adapting to a warming planet, not mitigating emissions, will dominate policy discussions in the decade ahead.