COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

Daniel Hale

Likes Bikes and Dirt
The Indian approach maybe ? ;) But seriously people are taking the lockdown as a joke in my area, playing volleyball and house parties.

i worked with an ex post indian—he said that’s the std police approach to any incident, hit everyone involved with a stick, once subdued then you start asking questions what happened...and work out who’s going to kick in for the bride so no charges have to be laid
 

Litenbror

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Muscle?



Because we don't export much dairy to NZ. We like to hold old cliches about it farmers and when those are challenged...is scary.

But imagine if it was the mega Chinese dairy company that downed tools to gather medical supplies, leaving grocery refrigerators empty? Or they were instructed to process their produce for export rather than domestic market? Sure it would eventually come to a he and be resolved in some way, perhaps even nationalisation of the industry.

Or if the world's busiest coal port was instructed to close to all ships not moving cargo to China? Or to boycott ships going to perhaps Japan Korea or Taiwan? Or it was found to be a gateway for Chinese operatives or narcotics coming into Australia and smuggling of dissidents back to China?

Such things may never happen.
But on that thread what would make an NZ company keep producing milk for the Aus market? The company is offered a higher price for export rather than local supply and they would take it. A company doesn't need to be owned by a government to be influenced by one, in some ways it's easier without gov ownership. Corporate laws dictate the company must do what's in the best interests of shareholders and if a foreign gov is offering a higher price then they can justify sending it.

There is no black and white it's all grey and dodgy but we all need to remember, it's not Us vs China or NZ or any other country.

It's Us vs the wealthy who want to keep their billions while trickle feeding us our stimulus cheques without giving up a cent of what they were given (they will say earned but there is no way you can work hard enough for a billion dollars).
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Probably and how would that go down if there is tensions? I was wondering if we started taking back ownership of any foreign owned infrastructure whether the protections were in place to do that when the deal was signed?
To your first question, well I guess if the backdrop is that there are 'tensions' and things are bad enough that we worry about the CCP using its control of Australian based assets for strategic purposes then we'd already be at the point where we would be prepared to accept Beijing being angry that we nationalised their 'commercial' interests. The relationship would already be classed as upset, so I don't think we'd be too worried about hurting their feelings. The bigger problem would be the narrative that goes along with it and how it would be seen in the global marketplace. We would not want the CCP to control that narrative otherwise it might spook future investors.

I'm unsure about the protections and the deals you discuss. It kind of doesn't matter though, when it comes to national interest, legal matters will be secondary in consideration.

Are our assests owned by foreign goverments via private businesses like China?
Unsure, but as I said in that post, even if there are, there is much less concern that they would be used as a tool of strategic power the way we are concerned over Chinese SOEs being used for strategic purposes.
 

stirk

Wheel size expert
Don’t mean this to sound like a selfish question given the seriousness of the situation , but just curious because it is my form of cardio which is important to my health at 57.
But at what point are we likely to not be allowed to go mtbing ?
NZ is at a higher level of lock down the us at the moment and they are allowed outside to exercise so I assume it's your choice how you exercise in lieu of anything more specific from the Govt about what form of exercise you choose. Being in the middle of the bush, mostly alone is better than walking about on the pavement with other people about.

National parks are open for exercise, just some areas and camping is prohibited. Ride on!

https://www.nationalparks.nsw.gov.au/npws-covid-19#what-restrictions-apply-in-these-areas?
 

fatboyonabike

Eats Squid
But the government seem super reluctant to define "need to"

I need to go to work
I need to go buy toilet paper
I need to take the dogs for a walk
I need to send the kids to school
I need to get some supplies for a project at home
I need to go get a hair cut
I need to stock up on ice cream
I need to go buy some puzzles


It's so ambiguous it's little wonder people have been paying little attention to it.

I personally can't afford to take another few months off work after 6months off last year. I'm currently up on a roof with no-one else around me so that's ok. My wife also can't afford to take time off work, but she works in a germ factory (childcare) so she's stressed out currently.

All this half assed closures sends a mixed message and drags it out longer than it needs to be dragged out. We could both stop work now and isolate but what happens in 3 weeks time when the government decides to show some actual leadership and shut everything down? We're unemployed, we've whittled down the savings, and we're near out of lockdown supplies.


Sent from my G8441 using Tapatalk
it breaks down like this
You can pretty much do what ever you think is critical to your daily existence with the sole exception to visiting Trampoline parks!..they are a hard No No!..................#BigSmacks
 

pink poodle

Our man in Japan
But on that thread what would make an NZ company keep producing milk for the Aus market? The company is offered a higher price for export rather than local supply and they would take it. A company doesn't need to be owned by a government to be influenced by one, in some ways it's easier without gov ownership. Corporate laws dictate the company must do what's in the best interests of shareholders and if a foreign gov is offering a higher price then they can justify sending it.

There is no black and white it's all grey and dodgy but we all need to remember, it's not Us vs China or NZ or any other country.

It's Us vs the wealthy who want to keep their billions while trickle feeding us our stimulus cheques without giving up a cent of what they were given (they will say earned but there is no way you can work hard enough for a billion dollars).
I'm just theorising what it may be that makes people concerned. I'd like to think it isn't just a case of "they look different to us".

I do have a significant level of agreement with your last paragraph. The current ideas around stimulus packages seem to support it too. If the government wants the consumer to lead the economy out of gloom and doom, put more cash in their hands.
 

rowdyflat

chez le médecin
But the government seem super reluctant to define "need to"
I need to go to work
I need to go buy toilet paper

Planko Just sell some of the thousands of bike parts you have hoarded that will give you income for years.
 

Nambra

Postmeridian
I agree regards the reviewing of trade/manufacturing capabilities, etc. when this is all over, however I think there are some problems with what you've said. Firstly, we want foreign investment, including that from China. Investing in a country is not 'buying it', it's not like they can pick it up and take it back to China/America/Netherlands. (well, mining might be a different story...) They can always buy farms, factories or real estate and if we feel that the balance is in the national interest, we simply nationalise.

I think you might misundertand what Daigou is. It doesn't benefit the CCP, they are actually not the greatest fans of some of it because they want Chinese to buy domestically, not internationally. Daigou is individuals doing grey imports.
I'm not against foreign investment @johnny, and certainly there are many local industries and business that have benefitted enormously from FTAs and foreign investment. We need to look past the economic benefits in isolation though, and be wary of dealing with countries that don't share our democratic beliefs and values. The CCP has a clear history of deliberate subterfuge, market manipulation, media control, poor human rights record, allegations of hacking, spying and interfering in elections. How can we discount those moral and ethical factors in our trade agreements? Money, lobbyists, donations and influence, one would presume. It's like ignoring that your next door neighbour is a serial killer because he buys your home grown vegetables. If it were Russia or DPRK instead of China, would we be as willing to forge open trade agreements with them?

The Chinese are very good at advancing their own interests and that's not being racist; they're an industrious people whole are prepared to embrace opportunity, but they can be ruthless too. I understand what Daigou is and don't blame the Chinese for it existing - we've created an environment for it to occur and they've made the most of it. It just seems like we're open to being exploited because the lack of controls in the supply chain. Despite the CCP ostensibly clamping down on Daigou, they don't seem to be enforcing it; maybe that's because the CCP could probably influence a foreign market indirectly using Daigou, particularly where it's a SOE owning a local company supplying the product.
 
i worked with an ex post indian—he said that’s the std police approach to any incident, hit everyone involved with a stick, once subdued then you start asking questions what happened...and work out who’s going to kick in for the bride so no charges have to be laid
Std police aka the cootie cops
 

pink poodle

Our man in Japan
A little insight into life being quarantined:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-30/coronavirus-quarantine-at-sydneys-intercontinental-hotel/12101918

A better solution would be a gift voucher. That way people wouldn't use it to pay down their debts.

There is no easy answer to this.
I'm not only talking one off payments. They have their place, but are only part of the issue. Vouchers would be similar and certainly keep some retailers very happy. Whicj mega trail network would won out? Maybe a tender? People need an ongoing boost on their weekly pocket. Stagnant wares need to grow. Maybe this is a combination of wages and tax reductions, toss in some subsidies to some areas of retail (probably grocery items would be best), and as consumers become more confident in their position hopefully they drive a recovery. Maybe it won't work, maybe it will. We know that the trickle down has not worked so it is time for some new thinking.

As long as the primary message being given from all aspects of the economy is fuck Gerry Harvey with a big rubber dick I think we will all be pretty happy.
 

pink poodle

Our man in Japan
Also just confirmed with my credit union that any suspension of repayments won't stop he accrual of interest against the loan. I reiterate my interest in interest only repayments as a way to prevent people getting locked in the arse over the life of their loans.
 

Plankosaurus

Hydraulic Jack specialist
But the government seem super reluctant to define "need to"
I need to go to work
I need to go buy toilet paper

Planko Just sell some of the thousands of bike parts you have hoarded that will give you income for years.
Blasphemy!!!

Sent from my G8441 using Tapatalk
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
I'm not against foreign investment @johnny, and certainly there are many local industries and business that have benefitted enormously from FTAs and foreign investment. We need to look past the economic benefits in isolation though, and be wary of dealing with countries that don't share our democratic beliefs and values. The CCP has a clear history of deliberate subterfuge, market manipulation, media control, poor human rights record, allegations of hacking, spying and interfering in elections. How can we discount those moral and ethical factors in our trade agreements? Money, lobbyists, donations and influence, one would presume. It's like ignoring that your next door neighbour is a serial killer because he buys your home grown vegetables. If it were Russia or DPRK instead of China, would we be as willing to forge open trade agreements with them?
In principal, I agree with what you're saying. However, practice isn't so easy. I'm obviously no CCP apologist but these things in bold above can be laid at the feet of the USA, Indonesia, KSA, Australia...., oops! If we were to limit ourselves to only those countries who share what we espouse, we would be the loser in the end. Secondly, you cut off countries like China because of what the CCP does, it's not them that will be hurt, it will be the average Chinese citizen - DPRK and Iran are the best examples here. I guess it's a balance, but I'd also argue that we are dramatically over-balanced toward China at the moment in trade dependence.

In saying that though, we're actually talking about foreign investment, right? Not so much trade?
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Are our assests owned by foreign goverments via private businesses like China?
Here you go, macro-economist and supply line specialist from Perth USAsia centre:












Richard McGregor

@mcgregorrichard
· 4h
What does Chinese companies buying masks in January have to do with new foreign investment rules, as per this @FinancialReview headline ? And not all vulture capitalists are Chinese: https://afr.com/politics/federal/china-spree-sparks-firb-crackdown-20200329-p54exo





Jeffrey Wilson

@JDWilson08

·
2h

Not to mention that SoEs/SWFs/GLCs with access to "policy finance" and an interest in distressed assets come from all around the region, not just the PRC.
Quote Tweet






National Security Podcast

@NatSecPod

·
2h

Jeff, do we have concerns similar to those of Chinese SOEs that other countries might use foreign investment in Australia for strategic national interest? (in ways opposed to Aust national interest, a la Landbridge)







Jeffrey Wilson

@JDWilson08


Replying to
@NatSecPod
Yes, and the FIRB's whole raison d'etre is to assess cases for this. (Not widely known fact: FIRB was est. in 1975 primarily to test whether US investment in mining sector were consistent with natl interest!)


In more recent times, the main risk was posed by Chinese SoEs. But in the current environment, there are actually many companies from around the region that might buy distressed Aus firms and asset strip, or grab strategic ones on the cheap



The potential culprits are companies which have access to "soft" and/or "policy" finance from state-owned banks. State owned industrial conglomerates, sovereign wealth funds, and goverment-linked corporations (GLCs) all fit the bill.



And - here's the important bit - practically every country in our region has several SoEs, SWFs and/or GLCs. Japan, Korea, China, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, basically everyone. In the current context, it is not just a Chinese thing anymore.



And the invidious job now facing the FIRB is to assess every single dollar that comes into the country. And do it quickly, as we need investment desperately. Spare a thought for the FIRB case officers working from home...
 
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