No state will be relaxing restrictions anytime soon
@nathanm. As long as boneheads keep coming home from overseas, our headline stats are going to be skewed, making models and predictions inaccurate. Thankfully they all get a 2-week all expenses paid trip to a hotel room when they arrive, so they don’t spread their poxy flu in the wild, leaving community transmission the remaining concern as the source of a “second wave” - so until the advice to govt is there is no community transmission, you’d have to think restrictions will still be in place. And staying at home for 4 days won’t magically cure the state of Tasmania either.
That said, we should take some comfort in our testing rates per capita being some of the highest of any country, with less than 2% of tests being positive as the national average. Tassie is the highest though at 3% with the lowest test rate nationally of about 615 tests per 100,000 people. Guessing that they’ve been told to start testing more to combat this upward trend.
As 70% of Australia’s cases are returning travellers, many of which probably did the right thing and self-isolated (or were forced into quarantine), it leaves a fairly manageable number of source-unknown cases to contact trace extensively for each individual which will help contain community transmission. Also, people are recovering too; we only have about 3240 of the 6100+ cases that are actually still sick. I see no reason to doubt what our government is telling us about rates of infection - why would they want to bullshit us? We’re not China.
The government will be wanting to reboot the economy as soon as the health advice lets it, with relaxations of measures to get people back to work, but which can be reversed if community transmission starts to appear again. Logic would suggest that if no new cases have appeared in a state for maybe 3-4 weeks, it might be the trigger to start lifting restrictions on businesses.