COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

Heard from someone in the know. If nothing had happened with restrictions and the majority weren't doing the right thing, the Vic health system would be completely overwhelmed by now and a lot of people dead. Don't be too hard on the actions taken, it really looks like a small chunk of idiots that have ruined things, and the actions have mostly worked.
 
Flow-Rider said:
They're not the only ones, there has been other corona cases here that they haven't been able to find the source of and a heap of arsehats gave fake details when they crossed the border after it was opened.

Likely next Saturday.


Arseholes are coming up here to escape the lockdowns down south, I drive through a new estate to ride a trail network and before the Qld border opening there were many homes that were signed 'up for rent' then after the border opens all gone.
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I was stunned by the number of 4wds and caravans lined up at the border waiting for it to open. Fuck is it that bad at home that you will queue on the side of the road a few days before you can drive through with all the other desperate wankers? I feel for the communities up north and out west who will have to put up with them.
 
Scotty T said:
Heard from someone in the know. If nothing had happened with restrictions and the majority weren't doing the right thing, the Vic health system would be completely overwhelmed by now and a lot of people dead. Don't be too hard on the actions taken, it really looks like a small chunk of idiots that have ruined things, and the actions have mostly worked.
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The restrictions have somewhat worked, but with such high-levels of community transmission we're going to end up locked down perpetually at this point. We needed a much stricter lock-down earlier in the second wave so that community transmission can drop off and we can then shoot for an elimination strategy.

This difference this go round is the fact that community transmission is occuring. First lock-down positive cases were mostly returning travellers and security staff not doing their job properly at hotel quarantines that were creating cases. Now it's out there in the community, under current restrictions even if everyone genuinely did the right thing the asymptomatic cases will still spread it without realising. Would've been much better (and would still be better now) IMO to enter a proper, heavily enforced lock-down - especially while there's still federal jobkeeper money around to stop people defaulting on mortgages and loans. With the current approach there's no end in sight for the current "second wave" in metro Vic. It's going to hurt our state economy and a lot of individuals a lot more in the long run than the short term hit to lock-down properly and get the numbers under control.
 
Dales Cannon said:
I was stunned by the number of 4wds and caravans lined up at the border waiting for it to open. Fuck is it that bad at home that you will queue on the side of the road a few days before you can drive through with all the other desperate wankers? I feel for the communities up north and out west who will have to put up with them.
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A lot of those small places rely on tourist to survive but the havoc I see at Rainbow beach and Fraser during the larger holiday periods is enough to turn me off for life.
 
Dales Cannon said:
I was stunned by the number of 4wds and caravans lined up at the border waiting for it to open. Fuck is it that bad at home that you will queue on the side of the road a few days before you can drive through with all the other desperate wankers? I feel for the communities up north and out west who will have to put up with them.
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If in doubt, nomad. Grass is always greener down the road.
 
franco cozzo said:
fuck guys...
723 new cases today :(
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You guys need to learn how to math. Google exponential growth, and have a look at what a graphic of that looks like. This
c0218687414df6d39925a76b1e4b05ba.jpg

Does not look like this

ced7ef0e7ff295e3e110a099b6dbfdd0.jpg


The Vic curve is already flattened and from what the Vic CHO said, the modelling indicates that this week will be the peak.

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Oddjob said:
It has. Check out the modelled growth paths from March. We are definitley seeing a slower growth rate that indicates we are near the peak.
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FWIW they made that claim about 4 days ago.

"Flattenning" at 500-700 community transmissions per day still ain't great.

The USA isn't exponentially growing any more either but has had a 66,000 cases per day 7 day avg for a while now
 
Oddjob said:
It has. Check out the modelled growth paths from March. We are definitley seeing a slower growth rate that indicates we are near the peak.
61c72da7207b7814690d9117f7dabfc5.jpg


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It hasn't flattened, random graphs won't prove your point.
 
Oddjob said:
You guys need to learn how to math. Google exponential growth, and have a look at what a graphic of that looks like. This
c0218687414df6d39925a76b1e4b05ba.jpg

Does not look like this

ced7ef0e7ff295e3e110a099b6dbfdd0.jpg


The Vic curve is already flattened and from what the Vic CHO said, the modelling indicates that this week will be the peak.

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From what I read, the Vic CHO said they were expecting it to flatten, not that it was flattening, and that there were aspects of the transmission that were worrying them notwithstanding that the overall figures had dropped away after the 500+ figure.
 
Ackland said:
Totally flattening guys...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...irus-cases-three-weeks-into-lockdown/12506858
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She said Thursday's spike was "disappointing" but suggested it could be a "random variation".
"At this point, their [the Victorian Government's] modelling was predicting it was about to drop," she said. "You need to have several more days of these types of numbers to consider this a trend.
"Tomorrow could be 200 or it could be 1,000. Really having one high number isn't enough to know what will happen in the next couple of days."


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