safreek
*******
I have some very attractive metallic blue ones, may be worth a fortune soon
COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?
- Thread starter johnny
- Start date
My 5c.
We wont see the impact of this on a large scale for at least a month. Despite people returning from overseas being cautioned they will still mix and mingle for a week or two before they are symptomatic. Then you think about the contact they have had in that period. With the average infection rate of 2.5x it doesn't take long for things to get out of hand. Add this to the fact that many will just feel as though they have normal winter colds and flu and will be infectious. A mate and his wife arrived back from Europe via Hong Kong airport this weekend. Airport terminal was pretty much empty but if they picked up something on the flights or in the terminals they will have visited a shit load of places and people before their symptoms start to become manifest.
So I am far from an expert on anything much less this subject but I think there is a real chance it will get big and out of control.
The vulnerable are those with pre-existing conditions / predispositions or those whose immune system struggles.
What happens as winter starts? The grey gonads (mate's wife coined this term) become peripatetic. They bunch together in caravan parks and bush and free camps. Lots and lots of these are in the middle of bumfuck nowhere. How is somewhere like Burke going to cope with 30 or 50 cases of this flu in a froup of 70+ travellers? How do you set aside enough care and facilities to quarantine that sort of thing in multiple country towns?
Then there are those who will ignore the signs and just continue going to work, commuting etc because we all know and have worked with people who think they absolutely have to be at work. Or even those who don't have any shits to give and think if I have it then someone else can get it too.
I honestly think that if this is poorly handled we could have a problem. On Triple J this afternoon (I was mowing) the best advise was to take it easy but everyone should get a generic flu jab when they become available on the basis that often these help minimise duration and severity of other strains.
I have no problem holing up for 14 or 21 days, fuck knows I could mow every day of that but if you don't live on acreage it will be tough expecting people to shut the doors and stay away.
Anyway someone else's turn. At least we know where to get P2 masks if we need them hey @johnny!
We wont see the impact of this on a large scale for at least a month. Despite people returning from overseas being cautioned they will still mix and mingle for a week or two before they are symptomatic. Then you think about the contact they have had in that period. With the average infection rate of 2.5x it doesn't take long for things to get out of hand. Add this to the fact that many will just feel as though they have normal winter colds and flu and will be infectious. A mate and his wife arrived back from Europe via Hong Kong airport this weekend. Airport terminal was pretty much empty but if they picked up something on the flights or in the terminals they will have visited a shit load of places and people before their symptoms start to become manifest.
So I am far from an expert on anything much less this subject but I think there is a real chance it will get big and out of control.
The vulnerable are those with pre-existing conditions / predispositions or those whose immune system struggles.
What happens as winter starts? The grey gonads (mate's wife coined this term) become peripatetic. They bunch together in caravan parks and bush and free camps. Lots and lots of these are in the middle of bumfuck nowhere. How is somewhere like Burke going to cope with 30 or 50 cases of this flu in a froup of 70+ travellers? How do you set aside enough care and facilities to quarantine that sort of thing in multiple country towns?
Then there are those who will ignore the signs and just continue going to work, commuting etc because we all know and have worked with people who think they absolutely have to be at work. Or even those who don't have any shits to give and think if I have it then someone else can get it too.
I honestly think that if this is poorly handled we could have a problem. On Triple J this afternoon (I was mowing) the best advise was to take it easy but everyone should get a generic flu jab when they become available on the basis that often these help minimise duration and severity of other strains.
I have no problem holing up for 14 or 21 days, fuck knows I could mow every day of that but if you don't live on acreage it will be tough expecting people to shut the doors and stay away.
Anyway someone else's turn. At least we know where to get P2 masks if we need them hey @johnny!
In saying this, I did just see a guy on TV saying that there is a possibility that the mortality rate is lower than the currently estimated 2-3%, but even then, it's going to have to drop a fair bit to equal the 'common flu', whatever that even is.
silentbutdeadly
has some good things to say
As a bearded gent, disposable P2 masks don't work for me. As someone who does the sort of work that risks me and mine getting dusted not infrequently...we run cartridge masks - my preference is the Sundstrom SR900 which is still around $110 in basic kit form.
It is good enough to have once done a lap or two at Coomealla whilst wearing it...
And yet the idea of wearing it to protect myself from COV-19 etc gives me the giggles...
It is good enough to have once done a lap or two at Coomealla whilst wearing it...
And yet the idea of wearing it to protect myself from COV-19 etc gives me the giggles...
PINT of Stella. mate!
Many, many Scotches
One thing about this place (Rotorburn) that's heartening is an absence of fuckwits who think we can somehow magically shut down all travel in and out of Australia at a moments notice without it leading to absolute anarchy.
@PINT of Stella. mate! Do you have travel insurance and will it cover you if you end up isolated somewhere? @moorey mate Donna Trump is making the repatriated yanks pay.
PINT of Stella. mate!
Many, many Scotches
Got travel insurance which would provide a certain level of cover but then insurance companies are notorious for shifting the goalposts. I’m not too concerned though. Australia’s infection rate looks like it’ll overtake Taiwan’s in the next few day so I’ve more chance of being denied entry to there rather than struggling to get back.
My main concern is and has always been riding 1000km on public roads.
My main concern is and has always been riding 1000km on public roads.
hifiandmtb
Sphincter beanie
Only in the UK.Are you singularly capable of triggering anarchy?
Mr Crudley
Glock in your sock
It won't matter and can't be stopped in the end. It is only a matter of time. It has similar human to human transmission methods as seen in the common cold and we have done great trying to reel in that one in too.
Ultra Lord
Hurts. Requires Money. And is nerdy.
Depends how big a fire you light.Are you singularly capable of triggering anarchy?
ozzybmx
taking a shit with my boobs out
We use the same ones for firing fuel oil as it emits sulphur when being burnt. They give me the shits wearing one for even 10mins.
We have to adhere to AS 1715, so a clean shaven policy at my place.
PINT of Stella. mate!
Many, many Scotches
Are you singularly capable of triggering anarchy?
I‘d say mildly chaotic
moorey
call me Mia
We are really only like a week or 2 in....
stirk
Burner
Are you on the mine/rig in the middle of the ocean still?
That comparison serves zero use, though.
So, what are the facts?
CDC estimates that influenza (2018/19) was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html That's a 1% mortality rate for a virus you can vaccinate against.
COVID-19 is currently assessed to have a potential of up to 3% mortality rate. In terms of the US flu rate for 2018/19, that would mean 100,000 people would have died in that year.
There is not enough (reliable) data yet to make certain judgements. Just as you say there are likely undetected illnesses that could lower the mortality rate, there are likely unreported or misunderstood deaths that could act the opposite way. Although, obviously there's a greater case for the former.
Point is, when H1N1 (the flu that kills many of the annual flu deaths and the one that killed 50million in the early 1900s) kicked off, it was devastating because it was a novel strain and they had little knowledge of it. The situation with corona viruses (like SARS & MERS) is the same; there is no vaccine and this is a new strain. Complacency is not a wise strategy.
k3n!f
leaking out the other end
Coronavirus China mortality 3.6% (there will be a large number of unconfirmed cases which would lower this as the initial confirmation required PCR)
Coronavirus Outside China mortality 1.4%
SARS 9.6% mortality
MERS 34% mortality
Absolutely not being complacent, just being objective.
Also, it seems the long suffering Pangolin is the most likely vector.