COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

Haakon

Keeps on digging
Nice segway although the iron ore is helping now not the natural gas which is cheap as chips! The price will need to recover a long way for those guys to recoup all of their $100B plus they spent, I'm sure they will but I do recall the hoo ha over the PRRT and I think we definitely could have got a better deal there and still had the field developed.

FFS, these dickheads have made me agree with Scotty and Hunt. So yeah nah, im not buying the "we are nice guys" act, its all about the bottom line.

 

Haakon

Keeps on digging
Well sold 4 homes for the month, and highest average price in a while. And inquiry is surging faster than expected! First home buyers are starting to feel confident they won't see the drops promised by the media. This covid buisness hasn't hit us nearly as bad as we expected!
This has literally just started, don’t get cocky about house prices yet...
 
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link1896

Mr Greenfield
6-9 month lag between peak unemployment and peak mortgage defaults I recall the chief economist from NAB mention.

This shits got a lot to play out yet. Make hey while the sun shines.
 

Freediver

I can go full Karen
Well sold 4 homes for the month, and highest average price in a while. And inquiry is surging faster than expected! First home buyers are starting to feel confident they won't see the drops promised by the media. This covid buisness hasn't hit us nearly as bad as we expected!
Is everyone in real estate a wanker?
 
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pink poodle

気が狂っている男
FFS, these dickheads have made me agree with Scotty and Hunt. So yeah nah, im not buying the "we are nice guys" act, its all about the bottom line.

That douche bag looks like a beatroot came on his face.

What if the test kits are faulty again?
 

mas2

Likes Bikes and Dirt
6-9 month lag between peak unemployment and peak mortgage defaults I recall the chief economist from NAB mention.

This shits got a lot to play out yet. Make hey while the sun shines.
Once jobkeeper dries up in 6 months and jobseeker halves I think that's when it will get a lot harder on everyone. Particularly if there's no vaccine in sight and corona keeps popping up.
 

creaky

XMAS Plumper
Once jobkeeper dries up in 6 months and jobseeker halves I think that's when it will get a lot harder on everyone. Particularly if there's no vaccine in sight and corona keeps popping up.
Just heard my BIL and his wife just bought a house in Brisbane ... wtf? Can’t think of a worse time in the last 15yrs to buy a house in terms of short-term value risk. They both have secure Govt jobs but why not hold off for 6 months.
 

link1896

Mr Greenfield
Once jobkeeper dries up in 6 months and jobseeker halves I think that's when it will get a lot harder on everyone. Particularly if there's no vaccine in sight and corona keeps popping up.
Yep. Many moving parts no central banks or governments have had to deal with before. Jobkeeper ending and jobseeker halving will definitely contribute to mortgage and loan defaults.

The anz ceo today:

However, while warning of dramatic and long-term economic change, Mr Elliott emphasised that the bank's current forecasts were not for widespread home losses and business failures as many parts of the world saw during the global financial crisis or Great Depression.

He pointed out that ANZ's total balance sheet is worth $900 billion, and the bank has more than $250 billion in outstanding home loans alone.

"While a billion is a massive number, in the scheme of things, it is not assessing that there will be devastation across households and SMEs," he said.

"It's actually quite a small amount of companies that won't get through."



Flow of information and communication has got to make things a damned sight better then the 1930’s, but fuck we are soft compared to generations back then.

In or around 1914 my great grandfather rode a borrowed horse for four hours to get all his teeth taken out in summer by the travelling doctor in the next town because he had one infected tooth and couldn’t bare any more pain, all removed with just whisky to take the edge off. Rode home the same day. Live till the ripe old age of 89. I couldn’t even ride a horse for 8 hours in a day.
 

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Once jobkeeper dries up in 6 months and jobseeker halves I think that's when it will get a lot harder on everyone. Particularly if there's no vaccine in sight and corona keeps popping up.
I used to think like this, but at the end of the day the gov enforced the restrictions that killed the economy. Businesses didn’t have a choice, the free markets failed because of it. Yes it was a pandemic (and the govs reaction was right) but the gov made a choice how they would deal with it so they bear the costs that comes with that.. So imo I think the gov bailout and stimulus will just keep going on and on.. Jobseeker double dole ain’t going anywhere and jobkeeper will stay but become more means tested. House pricing prop up will be next to come.
I read some really good articles about the gfc, basically governments can just borrow infinitely because lenders know they will never ever go out of business. The debt will always be paid, eventually..

What a shit country we have become.. No point saving anymore.. Cause that’s just considered mooching off the system. If you don’t leverage up into assests your a burden on the 2020 Australian dream..
 

mas2

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Just heard my BIL and his wife just bought a house in Brisbane ... wtf? Can’t think of a worse time in the last 15yrs to buy a house in terms of short-term value risk. They both have secure Govt jobs but why not hold off for 6 months.
A mate just bought a house up here too and settles in a couple of weeks for close to $1m. He is on $70k, doesnt like his job, just had a newborn, the wife has to go back to work ASAP, and if they can't sell their current house they are screwed. I just dont get why you would put yourself in that position with everything going. I guess when your parents can bail you out anytime it doesnt matter that much....
 

mas2

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Yep. Many moving parts no central banks or governments have had to deal with before. Jobkeeper ending and jobseeker halving will definitely contribute to mortgage and loan defaults.

The anz ceo today:

However, while warning of dramatic and long-term economic change, Mr Elliott emphasised that the bank's current forecasts were not for widespread home losses and business failures as many parts of the world saw during the global financial crisis or Great Depression.

He pointed out that ANZ's total balance sheet is worth $900 billion, and the bank has more than $250 billion in outstanding home loans alone.

"While a billion is a massive number, in the scheme of things, it is not assessing that there will be devastation across households and SMEs," he said.

"It's actually quite a small amount of companies that won't get through."



Flow of information and communication has got to make things a damned sight better then the 1930’s, but fuck we are soft compared to generations back then.

In or around 1914 my great grandfather rode a borrowed horse for four hours to get all his teeth taken out in summer by the travelling doctor in the next town because he had one infected tooth and couldn’t bare any more pain, all removed with just whisky to take the edge off. Rode home the same day. Live till the ripe old age of 89. I couldn’t even ride a horse for 8 hours in a day.
Yeh well my grandfather had to carry the horse to get its teeth out for 5 hours there and back. Uphill both ways.
 

mas2

Likes Bikes and Dirt
I used to think like this, but at the end of the day the gov enforced the restrictions that killed the economy. Businesses didn’t have a choice, the free markets failed because of it. Yes it was a pandemic (and the govs reaction was right) but the gov made a choice how they would deal with it so they bear the costs that comes with that.. So imo I think the gov bailout and stimulus will just keep going on and on.. Jobseeker double dole ain’t going anywhere and jobkeeper will stay but become more means tested. House pricing prop up will be next to come.
I read some really good articles about the gfc, basically governments can just borrow infinitely because lenders know they will never ever go out of business. The debt will always be paid, eventually..

What a shit country we have become.. No point saving anymore.. Cause that’s just considered mooching off the system. If you don’t leverage up into assests your a burden on the 2020 Australian dream..
If a pandemic like this can't lower house prices and get people to be more reflective about where they spend their money then I have no idea what will. I can imagine banks will be laughing their heads off by all the people taking up a year or 2 of no-repayment home loans in another 6 months while they still keep charging interest on them. 40 or 50 year home loans will be the next big thing.
 

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
If a pandemic like this can't lower house prices and get people to be more reflective about where they spend their money then I have no idea what will. I can imagine banks will be laughing their heads off by all the people taking up a year or 2 of no-repayment home loans in another 6 months while they still keep charging interest on them. 40 or 50 year home loans will be the next big thing.
Yeah totally agree, I wish it would happen and we would get the restructure of the economy that we desperately need to be more productive. But alas that ain’t happening with the current ideological lib/nat gov.. It will just be more of the same without regulations and “red tape”...
Yep 40-50 loans is the housing prop up I was thinking along with a foreign buyer rebate for those buying off the plan shitboxes in our major city cbds..
I’m sure there is more coming to keep the house of cards proped up..
 
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