@beeb some are 10k price difference from their petrol equivalent so over 5 years you get the 10k back. This will get much closer in coming years and on some comparisons is very close already.
I think the Niro is closer to the Atto when comparing, and they are similar price to Atto for the hybrid, same with RAV4. Cerato is more like the Dolphin?
Except comapring Toyota Rav4 to Bz4x, where Toyota continues to take the piss on EV pricing like most of the legacy car companies.
Also, look at how well EV's are holding their value, this will continue for a bit while petrol cars that aren't some special one will keep becoming worth less (worthless lol).
Factor in the whole equation and it gets pretty close to break even, and will absolutely go the other way I reckon in the next 5 years.
Home electricty, the main source of fuelling your EV, will never ever be anywhere near the price of petrol. 25c for a high priced KWh vs ~$1.20 (it's about 1.76 KWh per litre of burnt fuel) for a KWh of petrol. It costs half as much or less to fuel up at a fast charger than the bowser, I don't expect electricty to suddenly start increasing faster than petrol.
I get what you are saying but I think you are a bit off on the actual differences when you consider all the numbers. I wonder if Tesla's fuel savings calculator is based on home charging, supercharging or a mix?
An Atto 3 really isn't that big a car. They look SUV-like, but mostly they just sit higher to accomodate the battery tray. They are actually a few mm shorter (bumper to bumper) than a Cerato hatch - and the Cerato only gives up 12L of boot space (not counting a frunk on the Atto if it has one...).
I'm not following what your point about the Niro hybrid is? A hybrid has to incorporate the complexity and expense of both an ICE and an EV, so is never going to be the cheapest thing around for the same size of vehicle. A full EV Niro is ~$72K drive-away for the base model, doesn't have great range or power, and sits sort of in-between the Stonic and Sportage size-wise (and the Niro/Stonic are really just taller cars in the same rough footprint as a Cerato hatch, hence using it as my reference) - for a similar size/spec ICE Kia SUV you'd be looking $40-45K too, so the price gap there gets even bigger.
I think when I last ran the fuel cost vs charging calc I was doing less km's and fuel was a bit dearer - so it's looking somewhat more favorable now - but it's still a big gulf to conquer unless you
really want a cheap Chinese EV like an MG (I do not given current quality issues and
massive repair part lead-times...). I certainly haven't seen anyone offering anything remotely like 0.25c per kWh for electricity round my area either, unless I could leave my car at home during the day to charge it off-peak (and then that'd be offset by higher kWh charges on-peak when I'm actually home at night - and I also wouldn't be able to go to work and not having a job would make affording the lease/loan repayments difficult).
Unfortunately for the value perspective, but appropriate for my particular usage case - the Tesla calculator also assumes home charging. I think this is about right for real-world figures for me currently.
The next couple of years
should see new-car EV prices drop dramatically where the maths should work out, but like
@Cardy George alluded to - I've been saying that for the last 4 years now (and delaying buying a new car in case it became a reality) but we still haven't seen it. Currently more and more legacy auto makers are flooding the market with over-priced highly trimmed small SUV's - but cheap and basic EV's (of reasonable quality and driving range, ie: good "mechanicals" (electricals?) without all the bloatware) are still vapourware. The Kia K3/K4/K5 might bring down the prices a little bit by being built in China with a BYD Blade battery - but given all the hype online, I bet they still won't be anywhere near the $40-55K range, probably low $60K range is my guess for the K5 (Sportage size) SUV. In regional Vic we're also hundreds of km's from the nearest service centres for anything not from a legacy auto maker (so Tesla/BYD) if anything faults, so it's not just a matter of getting it towed to the nearest regional hub/town for repairs. It'd be a significant expense in itself.
It probably doesn't sound like it, but I absolutely believe in the potential of electric cars - but unless you're pretty well-off already or prepared to pay the premium for the experience, or value the enviromental (or in some cases just "seen to be green") factor - it's still at a point where people are buying them as a gizmo/status symbol/curiosity IMO - or they had enough money to buy something as (or more) expensive in the first place but wanted a "cheap" run-around.
I agree the argument that petrol prices will go up is
probable, so gambling on cheaper running costs working out over the longer term is probably sound - but it's not guaranteed either. The biggest problem currently is people have been willing/foolish enough to pay over-the-odds for legacy auto makers re-hashed ICE-platform EVs, rather than demonstrate to the auto-makers that value-focused models are also required. It's the classic trap of lower-middle class folk not being able to afford to save money and the upper-middle class reaping the benefits of new technology right now. I sort of live between the two realms, so if the prices do trend sharply downwards over the next 1-2 years I might be into an EV for my next daily driver, but at the moment it would be a vanity purchase.