Fire Warnings

moorey

Boom!
just https://esa.act.gov.au/ (which has NSW fires as well) and then jump on twitter and search for the incidents by name to see if any more info
You don’t have a version of this for other states?
Excellent app, sends alerts for anything in the zone you set with regular updates (fire, floods, trees, etc) as well as being able to check and view anything in the state.
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Litenbror

Likes Bikes and Dirt
You don’t have a version of this for other states?
Excellent app, sends alerts for anything in the zone you set with regular updates (fire, floods, trees, etc) as well as being able to check and view anything in the state.
View attachment 358648View attachment 358649
Unfortunately not, the ACT uses the NSW app which has those features for NSW but not ACT from what I can work out.
 
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Litenbror

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Yeah I was feeling a bit silly missing that one when I searched. Took longer than it should have to work out what was going on.
 

D01

Likes Dirt
The picture in that story shows a wombat down at Tallowa dam, anyone that's been there would have seen the terrible state they have been in for years, they're all infected with mange and due to stupid bureaucracy they've been unable to be treated. They die a slow horrible death while infecting any other wombats they come in contact with.

I'm no expert, but I do treat any wombats that I come across at my place, but there's the possibility this fire might actually help the wombats by reducing the number of mange infected wombats and help limit the mange spread. This is assuming that the remaining wombats can be treated, which I've been told should start soon if it hasn't already.
 

silentbutdeadly

Eats Squid
That has been a very useful tool. Arguably better visualisation than the app but the data behind it is virtually the same.

With regard to the Fires Near Me app...this season has exposed issues with the underlying system that NSW fire authorities use to manage fires.

In a nutshell, the fire boundaries and their complexity are now frequently too big for the capacity of the system. And the mapping would crash.

You can see this in the frequent use of straight lines dividing up the bigger fires (this was a workaround to prevent crashing that was discovered back in September). You can also see it sometimes when there is an advice icon for a fire but the boundary has disappeared.

The other issue has been a dearth of available & capable GIS staff. These are the people that take the linescan data from the ongoing aerial imagery and convert it to a fire boundary that you can eventually see on the app. In some (many?) cases, these people are volunteering their time...
 

droenn

Likes Bikes and Dirt
That measurement function is scary, about 3500 square km burned so far on the Dunns road fire
Checking out the satellite images shows there some big fire breaks in place between that and here... just all depends on ferocity when they hit them I guess?
 

Cyclomaniac

Likes Bikes
I don't know if it has been mentioned here but the scanner radio app is very helpful when the fires are near. Being able to hear the firies in real time lets you know exactly what is going on. Local Facebook page was good but a lot of misinformation and political arguments to wade through.
 

SF Trailboy

Likes Bikes and Dirt
I don't know if it has been mentioned here but the scanner radio app is very helpful when the fires are near. Being able to hear the firies in real time lets you know exactly what is going on. Local Facebook page was good but a lot of misinformation and political arguments to wade through.
Scanner app was better than fires near me when in actual high threat imo
 

hifiandmtb

Sphincter beanie
A more than decent overall explaination of Australian bushfire behaviour:


Black Saturday saw fire speeds of up to 70km/h. Holy shit.
 

Litenbror

Likes Bikes and Dirt
A more than decent overall explaination of Australian bushfire behaviour:


Black Saturday saw fire speeds of up to 70km/h. Holy shit.
I have a mate who's parents lived near the Latrobe valley when the fires went through there. We were watching it online in WA and the oh shit moment was after watching the fire cover a section in 30min that took him over an hour to drive, and he had driven it a lot as a teenager, not always at the safest speeds. Once these things get moving you can't out run them.
 

Haakon

veni, vidi, volanti
A more than decent overall explaination of Australian bushfire behaviour:


Black Saturday saw fire speeds of up to 70km/h. Holy shit.
With the wind speeds we saw, plenty moved that fast. We were dealing with spot fires being lit something like 80kms away from it...
 

Haakon

veni, vidi, volanti
The Newscorp line.


Time for a reality check on the causes of bushfire risk
Oceanic cycles
The best
evidence so
far is that
weather
patterns, not
climate
change,
increase the
danger of
catastrophic
fires.
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Robert Hadler
Thenational outpouringof griefandanger
at the consequences of the recent drought
andhorrendousbushfires acrossmuchof
Australia is understandable, but it is not the
best platform to assess corporate risk or
makepolicy decisions.
WhenRussellCroweandothermovie
stars at the GoldenGlobes reinforce the
popular perception thathuman-induced
climatechangeis the cause of the drought
andbushfires, it is time for a reality check.
Companieswith a big regional footprint
suchasCommonwealthBank, Coles,
TelstraandAustralia Postandleading
agribusinessessuchas Elders,BegaCheese
andGrainCorprequire sophisticated riskmanagementstrategies
for weather events.
Tobeeffective, theserisk-management
strategies require forward-looking
indicators that allow companiesto position
their operationsahead of weather events
rather than simply react to them.
Thesameriskmanagementstrategies
shouldbein place forourstateandnational
parks,emergencyservices, thearmed
services,anddecisionmakersat the state
andfederal level.
Fortunately,wehave the data. Scientific
analysisshowsthat the primary drivers of
rainfall,andtherefore droughtandbushfire
risk, in Australia are four separate but
sometimeslinked weather patterns in the
Pacific, IndianandAntarctic oceans.
Theseweather patterns are: the ElNin˜o
Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the longertermInterdecadal
Pacific Oscillation (IPO),
whichaffectsENSOevents; the Indian
OceanDipole (IOD);andthe Southern
AnnularMode(SAM).
In simple terms, sea temperatures in the
Pacific, IndianandAntarctic oceans directly
influenceourannual weather cyclesand
drive surface temperaturesandrainfall
across Australia.
Whenthese weather cycles are positive,
rainfall is lowerandthe risk of droughtand
summerbushfires is higher,andwhenthey
coincide, the risk of a prolongedandsevere
droughtandbushfires ismuchhigher.
Theseweather patterns are regularly
monitoredbytheCSIROandBureauof
Meteorologyandprovide corporate
Australiaandgovernmentdecisionmakers
with effective forward-looking indicators
of droughtandbushfire risk each year.
In the past 12 months,anElNin˜oweather
pattern in the PacificOceanandtheIOD
havebothbeen positive, a dreadful
combination that provided the platform for
the droughtandbushfires.
Tobefair, whileweknewthe risk,westill
did notknowthe exact location, timing
durationandintensity of the droughtsand
bushfires thatwouldoccur.
Somehaveargued that the
unprecedented extentandferocity of the
droughtandcurrent bushfires across
Australia isduetohuman-inducedclimate
change.However,historical analysisshows
Australia has sufferedmanybig droughts
andbushfires.
The1974-75 bushfires in outbackNSW,
Queensland, South Australia,Western
Australiaandthe Northern Territory burnt
117 million hectares,comparedwith 8.4
million hectares burnt so far in 2019-20.
Asthe early 1970s fireswerewellaway
frommetropolitan areas, did not affect
holidaymakers, did not destroymany
housesanddid not kill asmuchlivestock,
they did nothave a big emotional impact.
ResearchbyDanielle Verdon-Kiddand
AnthonyKiemin2009foundthat the three
big droughts in Australian history, the
FederationDroughtbetween 1895and1903,
theWorldWarII droughtbetween1937and
1945andthe BigDryorMillennium
Droughtbetween1997and2009wereall
directly causedby oceanweather cycles.
Theresearchshowsthat the direct causes
of each droughtweredifferent.The
FederationDroughtoccurred during
sustainedENSOactivity in the Pacific
Ocean, theIODis thought tohavebeenthe
maindriver of theWorldWarIIDrought
andtheSAMwasthe chief cause behind the
Big Dry.
ff
Notenoughwasknownabout the effects
ofoceanweather patterns to prepare for the
Federation orWorldWarII droughts, but a
great dealwaswasknownaheadof the Big
Dryandthe recent droughtandbushfires.
Assatellite monitoringandweather
modelling improves, there is simplyno
excuse for business executivesandboard
directors orgovernment decisionmakersto
beunpreparedfor extremeweather events
each year.
Someargue thathuman-inducedclimate
changehas brought forward –or is
increasing the frequencyandintensity of –
ElNin˜oandIODimpacts,andtherefore
droughtandbushfire risk in Australia.
ResearchbySarah HarrisandChris
Lucasin 2019 foundthatoceanweather
cyclesdonot explain the rising average
temperaturesandlower rainfall in
south-east Australia over the past45years,
andthey suggesthuman-inducedclimate
changeis probably driving this.
However,the HarrisandLucasresearch
concludes: ‘‘Thedynamicsof global
warmingandits interactions withmodesof
inter-annualanddecadal variabilityandits
effectsonfire weather in Australiaremain
uncertain.’’
This conclusion does not invalidate the
theory about the effects ofhuman-induced
climatechangeonour weather – it just
meanswedonothaveenoughinformation
yet forsoundriskmanagementor policy
development.
Verdon-KiddandKiemalso concluded:
‘‘Further understanding intohowmultiple
physicalmechanisms,including
anthropogenic climate change, interact to
drive south-east Australia’s climate ... is
required ... Failure to address these issues
will result in droughtmanagement
strategies continuing tobelargely
ineffective in reducing Australia’s
vulnerability to drought.’’
Thesamelogic applies to bushfires or
cyclonesandfloods.
Anyinquiry into or policy response to the
ongoing bushfiresmustaddress this issue.
Weurgently require further scientificwork
to provide greater certainty about the
interactionbetweenoceanweather events
andthe location, timing, durationand
intensity ofhuman-inducedclimate change.
Onlythen willwehavesufficient data to
makesoundlong-term businessandpolicy
decisions.

RobertHadler is aseniorbusinessadviserand
board director.
 
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