pink poodle
気が狂っている男
That feels like more than 10%
Nerfonomics
- Thread starter Nerf Herder
- Start date
-
- Tags
- economics george costanza nerf
rockmoose
his flabber is totally gastered
I only work for tips.
Flow-Rider
Burner
I can see a lot of people falling on hard times, already sharting to shit from the RBA announcement of consecutive interest rate rises.
Squidfayce
Eats Squid
What was Sally thinking 3 months ago? Lol
Asininedrivel
caviar connoisseur
I heard last night (and of course can't remember the source) that prices in Melbourne alone are tipped to drop around 16%.
I still call that a correction rather than a depression but tell that to people who've over leveraged cus they bought into the bullshit / FOMO and now may be paying off a house worth substantially less than what they paid for it. FWIW the place I'm in sold for almost 40% less in 1992 than it did in 1988...
Squidfayce
Eats Squid
40% of 27k
Re correction/depression, that's a projected 16% drop on the 25-35% increase in the preceding 6 months. So is it a depression?
Squidfayce
Eats Squid
When everything is said and done, property is still in demand. It's just a matter of who can buy it now. So market will shift, people will still make money, some people will become homeless and some will go from paying their own mortgage to somone else's. The great circle of life.
Squidfayce
Eats Squid
This reminds me I need to change my insuranc3 from agreed to market value lol
leitch
Feelin' a bit rrranty
Problem is they’re still defining market value by redbook prices so if you want anything close to what it would cost to replace your car you’re gonna need to stay with agreed (and pay the premium to insure it for more than your jerkoff insurer values it).
Calvin27
Eats Squid
More like what is Michael thinking now? Fix at 6.55%, seriously?
Squidfayce
Eats Squid
yeah fixing now is crazy.
nope, agreed falls at a defined rate from the originally agreed value. Doesn't stay the original agreed value past a certain point. Current Redbook value on my car is about 5k more at the low-mid end than the current agreed value. It wouldnt be a problem if the second hand market wasnt stupid as it is now
Squidfayce
Eats Squid
Michael works for the bank
Flow-Rider
Burner
What's going to happen when loans relapse at a higher rate?Michael works for the bank
Squidfayce
Eats Squid
if youre not sally, you will probably refinance. If you are sally, you will move to Fb and complain about if for 3 months before michael puts you on a nother 5 years fixed at a 3% premium of the current market variable rate.
.....unless in the next 12-18 monts the economy tanks and we start cutting rates again. At which point, its houses to the moon again.
caad9
Likes Bikes and Dirt
This may be a really simplistic way of looking at things but it seems like it would be impossible to predict what will happen in the next 6 months, let alone 10 years. We live in a world where people have to have everything immediately, it's a very different time to anything prior.
I don't think there is any real precedent for what's to come.
I am guessing violent spikes in either direction for a long time.
I don't think there is any real precedent for what's to come.
I am guessing violent spikes in either direction for a long time.
Last edited:
Squidfayce
Eats Squid
yep no one has the crystal ball. They've been touting Australian housing prices as unstainable for 20-30 years? Predicting crashes and corrections etc of 20-30% for about the same time. And somehow weave weathered it all (ecxept where the local economy is reliant on mining or tourism - Perth and mining town housing and Airlie beach /Mackay in QLD come to mind as outliers).
It could crash, it could grow again, who knows. The fundamental demand hasn't changed though and supply hasn't increased to meet it. So as far as i can tell it all swings and roundabouts for most people as long as theyre not so debt laden they cant afford the rises for a bit. If you believ the RBA everyone has save so much money during the pandemic, they'll be fine (lol - like they have any credibility these days).
beeb
Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
I think one thing that gets forgotten in all this is 30 years ago mortgages being paid by a single-income would've been proportionally (significantly) higher than the last 10 years. IMO, a lot of the last decade of house price increases have risen based on mortgages being taken out based on dual incomes, coupled with the limited availability you refer to.
Squidfayce
Eats Squid
are you saying a factor of prices increasing is due to people using both incomes to service a mortgage? if so I disagree. Thats a direct symptom of higher mortgages, not the other way around. Supply and demand is the primary driver. Historically supply has been held back by red tape and now that a lot of the red tape has been removed, building material supplies availability, and now inflationary pressures.
Theyve been talking about increasing supply for decadses, but no one has had the guts to do anything drastic because it ultimately devalues everyone else's property. Its a balancing game being played by the haves. They're winning.
Theyve been talking about increasing supply for decadses, but no one has had the guts to do anything drastic because it ultimately devalues everyone else's property. Its a balancing game being played by the haves. They're winning.