COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

[moorey]

well actually no we wouldn’t, likely these types of resp. viruses like sars-cov1/cov2, mers, rsv, swine flu 2009 and other upper/lower respiratory viruses have existed for many years, perhaps in humans, perhaps in other mammals (many of these viruses happily transit between diff mammals)
when people died in years gone past, like the elderly, nursing homes etc when they got colds/pneumonia/the flu their breathing g deteriorated, lungs filled with fluid, heart then had problems etc etc it was an an old/sick person dying.

over 500 people a day die from flu (do the math of that for 365 days a year) yet we have a vaccine for it - albeit a vaccine that changes almost yearly due to a high mutation rate of that particular virus..the flu virus is quite unique in that it is both highly infectious (like sars-cov2) and mutates it’s 2 component parts (i’ll call them H & N)
the H & N have roughly 5 or 6 changes, so 1 flu year you get h1n1, next year can be h3n2, yr after h3n5 and so on and so forth...the n1h1 is by far the most dangerous strain, the great war outbreak of 1918-20 was caused by this strain, as was the 2009 swine flu pandemic, this strain is dangerous, as it kills fit healthy young people, such as soldiers, that other flu strains only make you sick for 3-5 days with headache;sore joints etc. we likely won;t have another devastating flu pandemic like the spanish flu as humans have an extra 100 years of immunity, yes lots more people would die from a h1n2 strain, but not to the effect of 1918/9 when millions or people perished.

here is an article of newly discovered resp viruses, i’d of new resp. viruses in the new millenium , the article concludes we still don;t what causes know some where between 12-39% of severe resp. infections, how they get such a big range is beyond me, but it shows
we don’t know lots of viruses exist, and we often put them down to something else, eg i had the “flu” or a ”cold”

Typed a response, wasn’t worth it.

 

[CHEWY]

well actually no we wouldn’t, likely these types of resp. viruses like sars-cov1/cov2, mers, rsv, swine flu 2009 and other upper/lower respiratory viruses have existed for many years, perhaps in humans, perhaps in other mammals (many of these viruses happily transit between diff mammals)
when people died in years gone past, like the elderly, nursing homes etc when they got colds/pneumonia/the flu their breathing g deteriorated, lungs filled with fluid, heart then had problems etc etc it was an an old/sick person dying.

over 500 people a day die from flu (do the math of that for 365 days a year) yet we have a vaccine for it - albeit a vaccine that changes almost yearly due to a high mutation rate of that particular virus..the flu virus is quite unique in that it is both highly infectious (like sars-cov2) and mutates it’s 2 component parts (i’ll call them H & N)
the H & N have roughly 5 or 6 changes, so 1 flu year you get h1n1, next year can be h3n2, yr after h3n5 and so on and so forth...the n1h1 is by far the most dangerous strain, the great war outbreak of 1918-20 was caused by this strain, as was the 2009 swine flu pandemic, this strain is dangerous, as it kills fit healthy young people, such as soldiers, that other flu strains only make you sick for 3-5 days with headache;sore joints etc. we likely won;t have another devastating flu pandemic like the spanish flu as humans have an extra 100 years of immunity, yes lots more people would die from a h1n2 strain, but not to the effect of 1918/9 when millions or people perished.

here is an article of newly discovered resp viruses, i’d of new resp. viruses in the new millenium , the article concludes we still don;t what causes know some where between 12-39% of severe resp. infections, how they get such a big range is beyond me, but it shows
we don’t know lots of viruses exist, and we often put them down to something else, eg i had the “flu” or a ”cold”

I think Italy would have noticed the 1000 deaths a day with dying patients choking up the hospital hallways. Not exactly a normal week...

 

[pink poodle]

I think Italy would have noticed the 1000 deaths a day with dying patients choking up the hospital hallways. Not exactly a normal week...

Yeah but they may not have all been covid. Wheres the facts?

 

[CHEWY]

Yeah but they may not have all been covid. Wheres the facts?

Well it was around that time they installed the 5G towers.

 

[leitch]

Typed a response, wasn’t worth it.

It’s also a completely moot point. Evidently if we weren’t told we wouldn’t know, just as Trump’s “test less = fewer confirmed cases” is also true in the strictest sense.

But as @CHEWY says, we know because it was noticeable, so sorry @Daniel Hale but what you wrote is meaningless. Doctors in China detected noteworthy and statistically significant numbers of a novel virus that was behaving differently to other known viruses and COVID-19 was discovered as a result.

The sheer fact that we know it exists proves you wrong.

 

[moorey]

Well it was around that time they installed the 5G towers.

We were busted.

 

[Mr Crudley]

I duno, their is gotta be sum truth in this:

The HAARP and UFO butters get on this radar wierdness occasionally too.

I've read the banding on the diagram is a artifact of Doppler radar from when a storm front approaches it. The moisture gets compressed in the storm front as higher and lower pressure troughs which shows up as bands since this is the precipitation and wind direction stuff that weather radar is designed to look for.

It is centred in Laverton 19km SW from Melbourne CBD surprisingly because the Melbourne weather radar looks to live there.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/radar/info/vic_info.shtml#melbourne02

 

[Ultra Lord]

 

[mike14]

Even if you lived through it?

Depends on the village. I might have just though Cromwell was some random Puritan...

 

[moorey]

Depends on the village. I might have just though Cromwell was some random Puritan...

Maybe I still do! You don’t know.

 

[moorey]

That’ll learn them! They won’t go hosting any more hugely profitable events during COVID19!

 

[Kerplunk]

well actually no we wouldn’t, likely these types of resp. viruses like sars-cov1/cov2, mers, rsv, swine flu 2009 and other upper/lower respiratory viruses have existed for many years, perhaps in humans, perhaps in other mammals (many of these viruses happily transit between diff mammals)
when people died in years gone past, like the elderly, nursing homes etc when they got colds/pneumonia/the flu their breathing g deteriorated, lungs filled with fluid, heart then had problems etc etc it was an an old/sick person dying.

over 500 people a day die from flu (do the math of that for 365 days a year) yet we have a vaccine for it - albeit a vaccine that changes almost yearly due to a high mutation rate of that particular virus..the flu virus is quite unique in that it is both highly infectious (like sars-cov2) and mutates it’s 2 component parts (i’ll call them H & N)
the H & N have roughly 5 or 6 changes, so 1 flu year you get h1n1, next year can be h3n2, yr after h3n5 and so on and so forth...the n1h1 is by far the most dangerous strain, the great war outbreak of 1918-20 was caused by this strain, as was the 2009 swine flu pandemic, this strain is dangerous, as it kills fit healthy young people, such as soldiers, that other flu strains only make you sick for 3-5 days with headache;sore joints etc. we likely won;t have another devastating flu pandemic like the spanish flu as humans have an extra 100 years of immunity, yes lots more people would die from a h1n2 strain, but not to the effect of 1918/9 when millions or people perished.

here is an article of newly discovered resp viruses, i’d of new resp. viruses in the new millenium , the article concludes we still don;t what causes know some where between 12-39% of severe resp. infections, how they get such a big range is beyond me, but it shows
we don’t know lots of viruses exist, and we often put them down to something else, eg i had the “flu” or a ”cold”

When Victoria can’t eliminate this virus, which seems the likely outcome at present, then the discussion of acceptable number of daily deaths and case numbers will happen. At the moment zero deaths and no community transmission is the sentiment of the majority of states and the population.. If that is not possible then Victoria is going to have to have make some uncomfortable decisions on how the state will go forward..
Right now there is no appetite for your argument, in time though Victoria probably won’t be able to get the virus down to a level that will be acceptable for state borders to open up.. Which leaves Vic in a shit place, are we going to stay locked in our homes to appease the other states who have eliminated and enjoying freedom? or do we find a balance (like europe/asia) and go forward with a level of restrictions into the foreseeable future? We could possibly end up with the bizarre situation where Victoria opens international travel to countries with similar virus levels yet can’t travel interstate..
Hope the above doesn’t occur and Vic can eliminate and we can get on with our bubble but it’s not looking promising. If you look at the behaviour of Melbournians right now, people are following the restrictions but also going about their day even in stage 4, so maybe this is a reflection of how much freedom of movement Melbournians are prepared to give up vs the risk of deaths/infection?

 

[Cardy George]

If you look at the behaviour of Melbournians right now, people are following the restrictions but also going about their day even in stage 4, so maybe this is a reflection of how much freedom of movement Melbournians are prepared to give up vs the risk of deaths/infection?

The shit part of that is it's their behaviour that affects the rest of the state. We have to be restricted because (not all) Melbournians can't go without a coffee

 

[Boom King]

There’s a painful group of shrill America conservative women who call them selves ‘one million moms’ and try to be relevant.
It’s pretty much a golden rule that any group caller 1m anything, have membership in the 100’s or maybe 1000’s. View attachment 365716View attachment 365717View attachment 365718View attachment 365719View attachment 365720

Ok

Sent from my SM-G960N using Tapatalk

 

[Kerplunk]

The shit part of that is it's their behaviour that affects the rest of the state. We have to be restricted because (not all) Melbournians can't go without a coffee

Getting a coffee is very low risk, that’s not where transmission is happening but it does highlight the problems the state faces.
Have a read of the stage 4 restrictions, there are chop outs and exemptions in so many industries. It won’t eliminate the virus which is the expectation of the other states/fed.. Tradies being able to travel to mutiple sites across the state is a perfect example. We aren’t all in this together, and regional vic is getting screwed..

 

[Daniel Hale]

Getting a coffee is very low risk, that’s not where transmission is happening but it does highlight the problems the state faces.
Have a read of the stage 4 restrictions, there are chop outs and exemptions in so many industries. It won’t eliminate the virus which is the expectation of the other states/fed.. Tradies being able to travel to mutiple sites across the state is a perfect example. We aren’t all in this together, and regional vic is getting screwed..

agree’d, almost all transmission to present has happened in the workplace (then spread to family members). this deep cleaning business, having people going around swabbing poles, buttons etc is unnecessary. - these respiratory viruses are transmitted via direct inhalation of the virus in water droplets.
certain businesses like abattoirs are being scaled back, presumably because they have high degree of interaction in places like tea rooms, i would have thought on a line where the meat is the thing which is moving down the line transmission between workers should b low, transmission is always high in places like hospitals/nursing homes where nurses move quickly between patients. tradies should b low risk as i would have thought they are not having much close/prolonged contact with people at work sites

 

[Daniel Hale]

When Victoria can’t eliminate this virus, which seems the likely outcome at present, then the discussion of acceptable number of daily deaths and case numbers will happen. At the moment zero deaths and no community transmission is the sentiment of the majority of states and the population.. If that is not possible then Victoria is going to have to have make some uncomfortable decisions on how the state will go forward..
Right now there is no appetite for your argument, in time though Victoria probably won’t be able to get the virus down to a level that will be acceptable for state borders to open up.. Which leaves Vic in a shit place, are we going to stay locked in our homes to appease the other states who have eliminated and enjoying freedom? or do we find a balance (like europe/asia) and go forward with a level of restrictions into the foreseeable future? We could possibly end up with the bizarre situation where Victoria opens international travel to countries with similar virus levels yet can’t travel interstate..
Hope the above doesn’t occur and Vic can eliminate and we can get on with our bubble but it’s not looking promising. If you look at the behaviour of Melbournians right now, people are following the restrictions but also going about their day even in stage 4, so maybe this is a reflection of how much freedom of movement Melbournians are prepared to give up vs the risk of deaths/infection?

sensible comment, elimination of these types of viruses & the way humans behave in a modern world with flights anywhere in the world will b next to impossible. even if we eliminate once things open up it will easily be bought back in, from somewher. it is too easily transmitted & infected people are too hard to recognise as the majority of adolescents/healthy adults show very few symptoms, certainly not different from a cold/flu. i certainly favour a swedish model, of life as normal & deal with what comes occurs

its a pity we can’t get data on how the second outbreak occurred, i know people are having fun with the security worker/sex in quarantine saga, just as likely it bubbled away in the adult population, among a small number, who passed it onto family members which kept it going for many weeks, wasn’t till it infected an elderly or compromised patient did we learn of it

 

[Daniel Hale]

I think Italy would have noticed the 1000 deaths a day with dying patients choking up the hospital hallways. Not exactly a normal week...

have a look at this graph of UN data of italian death rates, roughly 10 in every 1000 people die each year, italy has a 60 million population
so yes when you read 1000 deaths a day, some people think that’s huge, or freak out - it’s actually business as usual for human life
we usually have a large number of deaths from seasonal flu, which we have not experience due to covid lockdowns, meaning into travellers have not newly mutated strain to infect us, to an extent sars-cov2 deaths have replaced the normal flu deaths, albeit in lower numbers due to restrictions on movement/lockdown measures

 

[Daniel Hale]

But as @CHEWY says, we know because it was noticeable, so sorry @Daniel Hale but what you wrote is meaningless. Doctors in China detected noteworthy and statistically significant numbers of a novel virus that was behaving differently to other known viruses and COVID-19 was discovered as a result.

The sheer fact that we know it exists proves you wrong

actually china tried to keep this quiet, one dr in particular campaigned to notify wider of the respiratory syndrome, he has since died -whether the chinese govt had anything to do with his death is pure speculation.

did you read the article ? can you restate to me what you think my point is?

 

[Mattyp]

we usually have a large number of deaths from seasonal flu, which we have not experience due to covid lockdowns, meaning into travellers have not newly mutated strain to infect us, to an extent sars-cov2 deaths have replaced the normal flu deaths, albeit in lower numbers due to restrictions on movement/lockdown measures

So by restricting movements we've (they've) preveneted "normal" deaths which have since been replaced by covid deaths therefore had we not restricted movements normal deaths would still occur. Adding to them an exponential growth in numbers of covid deaths. Your logic and data shows that what is being done is working and saving peoples lives despite the same amount of people dying.