COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

[pink poodle]

This is the beginning of the great restructuring of our society and return to the power of established wealth, as in the days of old. The reptilian masters will be ready to scoop up the discount rate properties of the aspirational over mortgaged. The savings and investments of regular people will be destroyed. The master race will revive the economy under the lies of trickle down economics through hand outs and benefits for those already in positions of power while the rest of us beg for relief. As demonstrated in the first round of relief The Australian virtue of mateship and comradery will be further broken than we have already seen with the panic shoppers. The need for public safety will see the erosion of our civil liberties and our right to move and mobilise. It will be a return to serfdom in the new order. The police presence will grow and we will be told it is normal to have them watching us at all times. There will be food rations and our diet will be dictated to us.








Fuck me! The government better have a good coffee game in this horrible future! At least those terminator robots could be programmed to make a god brew.

 

[DMan]

the thought occurred to me that with elderly parents, am I to avoid them indefinitely or would it be better to get the virus and hope its all in the past then

True. The problem is no one seems to know if you can be reinfected or if you build immunity. But if you knew you could catch it and be over it quickly, wouldn't that be better than not seeing your parents indefinitely. Assuming they were safely isolated of course

 

[Kerplunk]

If limiting the disruption to society was the highest priority then there are only two options

1. Go full isolation and lockdown as per Wuhan until all cases die down in the country. Pretty much impossible now to trace all of the contacts that infected people have potentially made now though, and even if by some miracle we could pull it off, it would still be massively disruptive as we'd then have to keep all international borders closed until the virus died down around the world, to prevent reintroduction, or until a vaccine was produced which all credible experts are saying will be 12 months away

2. Don't bother with restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, let everyone catch it as quickly as possible and obtain immunity through survival. This would result in overwhelmed hospitals and a lot of people dying unnecessarily from other conditions so not politically or socially acceptable.

The should have pulled the trigger on option one 6 weeks ago and left the borders closed until a vaccine/treatment came along. Society would be back to normal by now and the economic cost far far less. Gov would have had to bail out the airlines.
Now look at what we are facing, massive economic loss, deaths, anarchy.. It’s a fucking mess all because of the gov chasing the chinese dollar..

 

[born-again-biker]

Tourists? You'd be insane to be travelling around on Holidays right now interstate or overseas.

OK, technically you can still get in, and there are 'essential' exemptions. However you are required to isolate for 14 days after doing so and if you are found to have broken that isolation the penalties are up to a $16,800 fine or up to six months in prison. Don't reckon many people are now showing up for a holiday

Spent the last six months meticulously organizing our annual moto ride around Tas. Six days of accommodation booked.
12 friends & family coming....mostly from the mainland. Day One was this Monday.
Ain't gonna happen now. But we will postpone it rather than cancel. It's a first-world complaint compared to others' situations.
Have a family holiday booked to Queensland in late April.......see above

I have mixed feelings about all this fear shit. I just can't buy into the exaggerated "crisis" crap in the main stream media.
I understand action must be taken because the virus is spreading......but fuck me, the economic damage (and therefore social) is going to be terrible for so many hard working people.
It has taken so many years to get Tasmania's tourism economy to where it is now....

Is the virus really that bad? Am I even allowed to ask that question without being shouted down?
Will the shut-downs/isolations ultimately prove futile?
Nothing in this world is black & white (no matter how bad people want things to be)....but are we overreacting on a macro level, when you consider the long term collateral damage? If you just go ultra-hard on isolation & take the worst-case projections as gospel, have you lost perspective?
I guess we just don't know enough about the bug yet, huh? (well, I don't anyway)
Way more questions than answers.

It's also interesting talking to people/friends/family. Those of us that are glass-half-full by default have pretty different views than the normally glass-half-empty peeps. I know the virus doesn't care how you feel about it - but there is an intangible and significant effect/result of attitude that manifests in behaviour.....and therefore outcomes.

(I expect some of you will now dismiss most of my musings with hard science, graphs, data & a thinly veiled lecture. That's cool. I'm just musing, not proclaiming or stating. Like I said, mixed feelings indeed)

 

[DMan]

Yeah that was British model until a few days ago which they quickly u-turned on. The modeling showed that deaths from anything other than coronavirus would rise dramatically with the strain on hospitals. Herd immunity doesn’t work without a vaccine either.
I do see us getting the point eventually where the gov will sacrifice the old to keep social/economic order.. if a treatment or vaccine doesn’t appear quickly.. It is sad but the damage from isolation, lockdown, bankruptcies, suicides/mental health will be worse than the virus..

There are certainly a lot of tough choices ahead. No-one will win here.

 

[pink poodle]

Will the shut-downs/isolations ultimately prove futile?

Everything is futile, especially resistance.

 

[DMan]

Spent the last six months meticulously organizing our annual moto ride around Tas. Six days of accommodation booked.
12 friends & family coming....mostly from the mainland. Day One was this Monday.
Ain't gonna happen now. But we will postpone it rather than cancel. It's a first-world complaint compared to others' situations.
Have a family holiday booked to Queensland in late April.......see above

I have mixed feelings about all this fear shit. I just can't buy into the exaggerated "crisis" crap in the main stream media.
I understand action must be taken because the virus is spreading......but fuck me, the economic damage (and therefore social) is going to be terrible for so many hard working people.
It has taken so many years to get Tasmania's tourism economy to where it is now....

Is the virus really that bad? Am I even allowed to ask that question without being shouted down?
Will the shut-downs/isolations ultimately prove futile?
Nothing in this world is black & white (no matter how bad people want things to be)....but are we overreacting on a macro level, when you consider the long term collateral damage? If you just go ultra-hard on isolation & take the worst-case projections as gospel, have you lost perspective?
I guess we just don't know enough about the bug yet, huh? (well, I don't anyway)
Way more questions than answers.

It's also interesting talking to people/friends/family. Those of us that are glass-half-full by default have pretty different views than the normally glass-half-empty peeps. I know the virus doesn't care how you feel about it - but there is an intangible and significant effect/result of attitude that manifests in behaviour.....and therefore outcomes.

(I expect some of you will now dismiss most of my musings with hard science, graphs, data & a thinly veiled lecture. That's cool. I'm just musing, not proclaiming or stating. Like I said, mixed feelings indeed)

I think you are asking yourself the questions we are all asking ourselves to some degree. I certainly am

 

[DMan]

Everything is futile, especially resistance.

Go make some caramel popcorn. And extra for me.

 

[Kerplunk]

Is the virus really that bad? Am I even allowed to ask that question without being shouted down?
Will the shut-downs/isolations ultimately prove futile?
Nothing in this world is black & white (no matter how bad people want things to be)....but are we overreacting on a macro level, when you consider the long term collateral damage? If you just go ultra-hard on isolation & take the worst-case projections as gospel, have you lost perspective?
I guess we just don't know enough about the bug yet, huh? (well, I don't anyway)
Way more questions than answers.

If you listen to Victorian CMO, the measures in place and that are coming is just to slow the virus not cure it.. Everyone will eventually get it they just want people to catch it in an orderly fashion so the medical system doesn’t shit itself Italian style..

 

[pink poodle]

Go make some caramel popcorn. And extra for me.

It's too light for me to throw it 1.5m to you! Think of the mess.

 

[_______]

2. Don't bother with restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, let everyone catch it as quickly as possible and obtain immunity through survival. This would result in overwhelmed hospitals and a lot of people dying unnecessarily from other conditions so not politically or socially acceptable.

there is no strong evidence that recovered sufferers are significantly less likely to be infected again, immediately. you couldn't get ethics approval to expose them again.

there is no possibility of assessing the time any immunity might last beyond a few months, obviously, by any means.

there is strong evidence that recovered sufferers subject to extensive monitoring in addition to the same "lockdown" measures as their infection-naiive neighbours come into contact with the virus much less often than they did (i.e. on average, less than once) before any social-distancing strategy was implemented or they were known to be worth monitoring for contacts. In a totalitarian country that can implement such things easily.

 

[nathanm]

Spent the last six months meticulously organizing our annual moto ride around Tas. Six days of accommodation booked.
12 friends & family coming....mostly from the mainland. Day One was this Monday.
Ain't gonna happen now. But we will postpone it rather than cancel. It's a first-world complaint compared to others' situations.
Have a family holiday booked to Queensland in late April.......see above

I have mixed feelings about all this fear shit. I just can't buy into the exaggerated "crisis" crap in the main stream media.
I understand action must be taken because the virus is spreading......but fuck me, the economic damage (and therefore social) is going to be terrible for so many hard working people.
It has taken so many years to get Tasmania's tourism economy to where it is now....

Is the virus really that bad? Am I even allowed to ask that question without being shouted down?
Will the shut-downs/isolations ultimately prove futile?
Nothing in this world is black & white (no matter how bad people want things to be)....but are we overreacting on a macro level, when you consider the long term collateral damage? If you just go ultra-hard on isolation & take the worst-case projections as gospel, have you lost perspective?
I guess we just don't know enough about the bug yet, huh? (well, I don't anyway)
Way more questions than answers.

It's also interesting talking to people/friends/family. Those of us that are glass-half-full by default have pretty different views than the normally glass-half-empty peeps. I know the virus doesn't care how you feel about it - but there is an intangible and significant effect/result of attitude that manifests in behaviour.....and therefore outcomes.

(I expect some of you will now dismiss most of my musings with hard science, graphs, data & a thinly veiled lecture. That's cool. I'm just musing, not proclaiming or stating. Like I said, mixed feelings indeed)

in regards to Tasmania we have a unique opportunity to isolate and limit the damage done physically and economically IMO.

By effectively closing the borders we can contain the virus to just the 10 cases currently known and X amount unknown. We can possibly be virus free within 2-3 weeks and remain that way.

We produce enough to feed ourselves and can continue to import/export products.

If we can halt the spread we can eliminate the impact on our health system (particularly save lives) which then allows the government to focus on assisting the industries affected. Tourism will be there still when all this blows over and we can recover.

However by doing nothing we can follow down the path of mainland states and have hundreds of cases of the virus which will then overrun our pathetic excuse for a health system which hasn't been able to meet normal demand for years now.

Also keep in mind a large portion of our tourist numbers travel from overseas, particularly Asian countries so our tourism industry is stuffed regardless. We would be pinning our hopes on recovering the quickest and encouraging domestic travel when it all starts to improve.

 

[Kerplunk]

there is no strong evidence that recovered sufferers are significantly less likely to be infected again, immediately. you couldn't get ethics approval to expose them again.

there is no possibility of assessing the time any immunity might last beyond a few months, obviously, by any means.

there is strong evidence that recovered sufferers subject to extensive monitoring in addition to the same "lockdown" measures as their infection-naiive neighbours come into contact with the virus much less often than they did (i.e. once) before any social-distancing strategy was implemented or they were known to be worth monitoring for contacts. In a totalitarian country that can implement such things easily.

Covid19 Antibody test is very close. Once we have that we will know if we get immunity afterwards or not.

 

[Kerplunk]

in regards to Tasmania we have a unique opportunity to isolate and limit the damage done physically and economically IMO.

By effectively closing the borders we can contain the virus to just the 10 cases currently known and X amount unknown. We can possibly be virus free within 2-3 weeks and remain that way.

We produce enough to feed ourselves and can continue to import/export products.

If we can halt the spread we can eliminate the impact on our health system (particularly save lives) which then allows the government to focus on assisting the industries affected. Tourism will be there still when all this blows over and we can recover.

However by doing nothing we can follow down the path of mainland states and have hundreds of cases of the virus which will then overrun our pathetic excuse for a health system which hasn't been able to meet normal demand for years now.

Also keep in mind a large portion of our tourist numbers travel from overseas, particularly Asian countries so our tourism industry is stuffed regardless. We would be pinning our hopes on recovering the quickest and encouraging domestic travel when it all starts to improve.

That’s what tassie did in 1919 with the spanish flu. Keep the borders shut long enough until the virus lost potency. By the time it infected them it was a mild version that caused far less deaths/illness. Good on tassie, very wise decision.

 

[rangersac]

Both are not options obviously. Did you actually read what I wrote or are you a reporter for ABC?

No reporter here. And I wasn't having a go, apologies if it came across like that.

 

[rangersac]

in regards to Tasmania we have a unique opportunity to isolate and limit the damage done physically and economically IMO.

By effectively closing the borders we can contain the virus to just the 10 cases currently known and X amount unknown. We can possibly be virus free within 2-3 weeks and remain that way.

We produce enough to feed ourselves and can continue to import/export products.

If we can halt the spread we can eliminate the impact on our health system (particularly save lives) which then allows the government to focus on assisting the industries affected. Tourism will be there still when all this blows over and we can recover.

However by doing nothing we can follow down the path of mainland states and have hundreds of cases of the virus which will then overrun our pathetic excuse for a health system which hasn't been able to meet normal demand for years now.

Also keep in mind a large portion of our tourist numbers travel from overseas, particularly Asian countries so our tourism industry is stuffed regardless. We would be pinning our hopes on recovering the quickest and encouraging domestic travel when it all starts to improve.

I am taking the Tassie figures with a large grain of salt because there hasn't been large scale testing done here. I have a GP friend who has referred two cases on for testing to the Department of Health. In both cases they weren't tested despite having traveled (to low risk countries at the time) overseas and showing classic symptoms because they weren't deemed severe or at risk enough.

 

[pink poodle]

Imagine all the mainland boat people trying to seek asylum in Tasmania! Locking them up and shipping them off the Christmas island ... Then publishing their address so we can go and get their toilet paper stash!

 

[DMan]

No reporter here. And I wasn't having a go, apologies if it came across like that.

All good mate. It's a complex situation. Glad you're not a report though... Tired of the most of the media at the moment and their scaremongering.

 

[Scotty T]

Covid19 Antibody test is very close. Once we have that we will know if we get immunity afterwards or not.

This will be a huge factor in ongoing restrictions. Interesting work going on to get back to prevention at the source:

https://ecos.csiro.au/managing-envi...mal-borne-disease-outbreaks-around-the-world/

 

[_______]

Covid19 Antibody test is very close. Once we have that we will know if we get immunity afterwards or not.

still not ipso facto immunity, just a place on the bell curve and/or an indicator of severity of future infections (c.f. common cold)