COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

Sethius said:
Whos was more deadly again? @johnny which economy turning south would have a greater effect, China or USA?
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I'm not an economist so this is more spitballing than anything.

They'd impact each other as China purchases a lot of US debt, but US is a major market for Chinese (global) goods. US also does a lot of foreign investment so that would ripple outwards in different ways. China purchases a lot of raw materials such as energy, iron ore, coal, etc. as well as components (it's part of the East Asian production chain where numerous countries manufacture widgets and the final product is assembled in another country), as well as finished products such as cars, electronics, luxury items, etc.

Honestly, I don't know if one would have greater impact than the other. If one went down the other would also be severely impacted.
 
The ABC's excellent analysis is being updated daily:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028

361463


US theme song:

 
Fuck I hope so, that's a logarithmic scale. But I read somewhere today (can't for the life of me work out where) someone had analysed Straya curve vs lockdown response and estimated we won't hit peak infection rate until late May early June.

Fuck.
 
But the libs said stimulus packages don't work? Or did they just mean they don't work for the uber rich? Or is that why they did the whole QE thing?
 
Kerplunk said:
Is that the slightest hint of curve flattening happening there? (Aust)
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Two days in a row now, new case numbers lower than previous day. Most new cases are returning residents too, so things are looking positive... touch wood.
 
moorey said:
I did say skyrocketing.
Governor of Mississippi has banned and overruled any measures by individual cities to close businesses or order any lock downs.
Louisiana, next door, has the fastest growing rate of infection in the world currently.
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Too early to guess casualty numbers? 100k?
 
Final COVID19 death toll in the US?

https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/2/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosdeepdives&stream=top

Experts believe COVID-19 will be responsible for around 195,000 deaths (approximate 80% uncertainty interval: 19,000-1,200,000) in the US by the end of 2020.

As a comparison, a typical influenza season is estimated by the CDC to cause between 11,000 and 95,000 deaths in a typical influenza season.

Predicted deaths in the US (range) Predicted probability*
0 – 100,000 0.36
100,000 – 300,000 0.25
300,000 – 500,000 0.12
500,000 – 1,000,000 0.13
1,000,000 – 1,500,000 0.07
1,500,000 + 0.06 *
Numbers do not sum to 1 due to rounding.

This is also interesting:

The average probability that experts assigned to a “second wave” of COVID occurring in the fall months (Aug.-Dec.) of 2020 was 73%.
 
How anyone could sensibly buy a property in these mad times is beyond me at the current valuations. Blind Freddie can see a big correction coming to the whole economy, not just residential property, surely the lenders are getting scared of their shadows at current house prices?

Biggest recession looming since the 1930s say the financial experts.
 
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