Electric Vehicles etc

[Haakon]

He didn’t invent the EV!

Prove to me that society is better off with premium EVs being available to purchase.

Hint: it’s fucking not!

You’re missing the big picture. In and of itself, sure I’d agree with you. But what it was designed to be and has proved to be successful at was a catalyst.

It’s driven consumer acceptance, eaten into sales of ICE cars, forced change at legacy automakers as a result and that’s allowed regulators to impose tighter regulatory controls because there is now a credible technology and not just vapour ware and promises.

 

[Calvin27]

You’re missing the big picture.

I'm 505/50 on whether tesla has done more damage than good. I know for certain they have skewed the battery technology development towards lithium completely and this has issues that might be problematic in the future if we adopt it en masse. It has also sucked up a lot of investment money doing stuff we already know how to do - making cars. Tesla paid a premium to develop a new vehicle production facility when we already have a very streamlined sector that is the automotive sector. This part of its development doesn't add any value whatsoever and swallows huge amounts of investment dollars. Then there is alternative technologies that would potentially be better. Liquid batteries for stationary applications for example are theoretically cheaper than lithium and better suited in many ways but they are a dead duck now because people won't invest in them due to the economies of scale wrt gigafactory.

Lithium energy storage as a grid solution is really really dumb, but somehow our governments do it because of the tesla brand.

 

[Haakon]

I'm 505/50 on whether tesla has done more damage than good. I know for certain they have skewed the battery technology development towards lithium completely and this has issues that might be problematic in the future if we adopt it en masse. It has also sucked up a lot of investment money doing stuff we already know how to do - making cars. Tesla paid a premium to develop a new vehicle production facility when we already have a very streamlined sector that is the automotive sector. This part of its development doesn't add any value whatsoever and swallows huge amounts of investment dollars. Then there is alternative technologies that would potentially be better. Liquid batteries for stationary applications for example are theoretically cheaper than lithium and better suited in many ways but they are a dead duck now because people won't invest in them due to the economies of scale wrt gigafactory.

Lithium energy storage as a grid solution is really really dumb, but somehow our governments do it because of the tesla brand.

I can explain a couple of those.

Lithium ion batteries was the right choice right now because it was a known quantity with proven economics and proven capabilities. And for a dollars per capacity it was the only choice for an automotive battery pack.

It didn't attract R&D investment, it attracted the sort of money that only ever goes into sure things. Liquid flow batteries such as the SA's Redflow systems are great as stationary storage at a home or microgrid level, and they will find their niche in time. But the early adopter model wants proven and cheap and for now that Lithum ion. Even Tesla aknowledges its not the best long term, hence their purchase of Maxwell.

Its already been adopted en masse in every portable electronic device in the world. And there are proven recycling processes, although the regulatory controls on e waste is somewhat fraught... EV batteries will not be dumped - they will be recycled, first with a second life as very cheap stationary batteries and then actual recycling. There is not much being done here yet because so few EV batteries have reached true end of life.

And the Fremont factory wasn't new, its was an old Toyota assembly line... Battery making in Nevada is new, and needed for the economies of scale required.

Grid scale storage is something poorly understood. The Hornsby Battery for example does not act as a power station providing bulk power, its job is short term voltage and frequency modulation. https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity...M/Security-and-reliability/Ancillary-services

https://reneweconomy.com.au/second-wave-of-big-batteries-about-to-join-australias-main-grid-39973/

It has been very successful at this and lithium ion batteries are perfect because they're good at instant response and high out put over short periods.

For true large scale bulk energy storage, you dont use batteries - you convert to hydrogen or use pumped hydro. But its not needed as much as people think if you've enough generation and a good grid to connect the decentralised generation.

 

[hifiandmtb]

Dabble in this & dabble in that.

It must be good then eh?

Kids rejoice - we have a future.

 

[hifiandmtb]

And...

Cybertruck battery = 120kWh. Scientific studies about carbon emission from manufacture average out to 88kgCO2e/kWh. 88*120 = 10,560 kgCO2e. 2019 Camry hybrid = 98gCO2/km. Therefore Cybertruck battery is equiv to driving Camry hybrid 10,560,000/98 = 108,000km.

Society says thanks.

 

[clockworked]

Musk also did paypal. That's useful in a lot of ways, but aggressive in how much it charges for the services, and how hard it is to get the money out of the system.
Not really a good bloke when considering in isolation

 

[Cyclomaniac]

And...




Society says thanks.

Worth thinking about, but the Camry would have co2 footprint in it's own manufacture. The question is, when we consider emissions for each vehicle as a whole over its' entire life including manufacture, maintenance and recycling, is it a step forward or backward?
Also if it is backward will it improve as time goes by?

 

[Haakon]

Musk also did paypal. That's useful in a lot of ways, but aggressive in how much it charges for the services, and how hard it is to get the money out of the system.
Not really a good bloke when considering in isolation

Look, I'm not trying to get into a "Musk did no wrong" caper, but please at least get the basics right. Google is your friend.

Paypay as it was when ebay purchased it and as it is now are very very different animals. There is plenty written on it, and Musk reportedly despises what its become.

 

[Haakon]

And...




Society says thanks.

So you're comparing the usage emissions of one tech with the manufacturing emissions of another? This is a meaningless comparison.

However, given the cybertruck can be zero emissions if charged appropriately and assuming the Camry popped into existence magically with zero manufacturing emissions, the lifecycle of the truck still comes out way ahead given Tesla battery packs are much much much longer lived than a mere 100K kms. So is a Camry...

You're also ignoring the scope 3 emissions of the Camry fuel.

 

[Calvin27]

It didn't attract R&D investment, it attracted the sort of money that only ever goes into sure things.

I'd disagree with that. Money into sure things is more like sticking it into property or bluechips. Tesla has only managed a handful of profitable quarters and at the time of investment, I wouldn't call that a 'sure thing'.

 

[Haakon]

I'd disagree with that. Money into sure things is more like sticking it into property or bluechips. Tesla has only managed a handful of profitable quarters and at the time of investment, I wouldn't call that a 'sure thing'.

A "sure thing" in the energy and automotive sectors. The relative security of these sectors compared something else is a different question, although its worth noting investment in Australia's energy sector took a dive due to policy uncertainty, not because there was any question of which technology to invest it.

Tesla's business model is a bit different in ploughing income back into expansion. The investment community appears to have enough people down with that that there is capital available. Dunno, I am not a stock market analyst and it all seems a bit voodoo to me still! I do know enough though that simply looking at whether a company is "profitable" is not always the whole picture.

 

[hifiandmtb]

So you're comparing the usage emissions of one tech with the manufacturing emissions of another? This is a meaningless comparison.

However, given the cybertruck can be zero emissions if charged appropriately and assuming the Camry popped into existence magically with zero manufacturing emissions, the lifecycle of the truck still comes out way ahead given Tesla battery packs are much much much longer lived than a mere 100K kms. So is a Camry...

You're also ignoring the scope 3 emissions of the Camry fuel.

Show me how it’s so much better with facts’n’shit.

You are all subjective words’n’shit.

An EV is a car purchase, not a climate change solution.

Emissions will be similar to a hybrid, but without the local air pollution.

To think everyone purchasing an EV is a solution is idiocy.

 

[Haakon]

Show me how it’s so much better with facts’n’shit.

You are all subjective words’n’shit.

An EV is a car purchase, not a climate change solution.

Emissions will be similar to a hybrid, but without the local air pollution.

To think everyone purchasing an EV is a solution is idiocy.

Two things. That contradicts your first quote and supports my response. Secondly, at no point in time did I or anyone claim EVs are the solution, they're just a part of it.

More importantly, while still sporting a manufacturing footprint like all manufactured goods, they have the ability to be a zero emissions transport option on a life cycle basis with the advent of more renwable energy across the economy - ICE cars do not.

 

[hifiandmtb]

An opportunity to be so isn’t so. We have to solve CC now, and it’s patently obvious EVs are not it.

Can you show me how that graph proves your point? It proves mine.

And that’s US-manufactured Tesla fairies & roses batteries. Most will be made elsewhere.

Never mind the lithium mining issues.

We should have EVs, just not every fucking person replacing their own ICE with an EV which seems to be the way humanity is framing this.

At best case, is a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions good enough?

Got any facts’n’shit to show when we are realistically going to get close to zero CO2 for manufacturing & running a scale EV fleet?

No. Because that just won’t happen.

Can’t be on scale.

That’s the fucking point.

 

[hifiandmtb]

I want numbers from you @Haakon. Numbers.

 

[Haakon]

This is not a numbers argument, and there is no "proof" of anything happening one or the other - science doesn't work like that as I'm sure we have covered before.

I can however tell you conclusively though that decarbonisation of the vehicle fleet will not happen if we don't replace ICE. Its the only way to start on the path to fully zero emissions and it will of course be a transition.

Do you advocate not starting on that journey because we don't arrive immediately?

 

[hifiandmtb]

So you have not read detail on the efficacy required to fix CC?

In no way does it advocate small steps.

EVs are small steps, as shown in facts’n’shit.

“Winning slowly is the same as losing”:

Bill McKibben: Winning Slowly Is the Same as Losing

The technology exists to combat climate change – what will it take to get our leaders to act?

www.rollingstone.com

Stop pushing this horse shit that EVs are a path to a solution. They aren’t in the way we are framing them.

Still no numbers. I’m beginning to think you only think in words.

 

[Oddjob]

So you have not read detail on the efficacy required to fix CC?

In no way does it advocate small steps.

EVs are small steps, as shown in facts’n’shit.

“Winning slowly is the same as losing”:

Bill McKibben: Winning Slowly Is the Same as Losing

The technology exists to combat climate change – what will it take to get our leaders to act?

www.rollingstone.com

Stop pushing this horse shit that EVs are a path to a solution. They aren’t in the way we are framing them.

Still no numbers. I’m beginning to think you only think in words.

Can we leave the depressing screed to the other thread please.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

 

[hifiandmtb]

But this is information directly related to the thread title.

Unless you just want to talk about EVs in a warped way in this thread & a balanced way in the other?

 

[Haakon]

Can we leave the depressing screed to the other thread please.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

Agreed, although its still relevant here to an extent.

@hifiandmtb please mate, you're attacking me and getting pretty agro (or at least it comes across that way) and its not needed. To me you seem to get angry at any part of the very bloody complex set of solution required because its not a silver bullet. Hopefully I'm reading that wrong, but please let me be clear - EVs are not the solution. They're not even a big part of the solution... They are however one component of the very big puzzle.

For the solution to work, we need all the pieces of the puzzle put in place.