COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

franco cozzo

Likes Dirt
....finding it hard to find masks, hand sanitiser, & gloves?


 
Last edited:

Freediver

Likes Bikes and Dirt
....finding it hard to find masks, hand sanitiser, & gloves?


It was a different time back then, we had a dozen cases here and China was hurting. Now that demand in China is decreasing they are providing a lot of aid around the world, and that's being donated not sold. They may have an ulterior motive but it seems they are doing the right thing.
 

Shredden

Knows his goats
I've got a question for the crowd about the R0 value of Coronavirus - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

WHO and other organisations seem to more or less agree that the R0 of Coronavirus is between 2 and 3. An R0 below 1 would mean that the virus would naturally die out over time.

So the Australian government are presumably aiming to push the R0 of coronavirus in Aus down to some number less than 1 - the closer to zero they can get it, the faster it dies out. At the same time, a lower number comes at a higher financial cost. So they would be trying to strike some balance between the lowering the R0 and causing economic pain.

I don't quite understand how the current restrictions don't achieve an R0 below one. Surely the measures currently in place (closing all public spaces, encouraging social distancing, isolation of suspected cases etc) would lower the average amount of contact between people (and therefore transmission) by more than 2/3rds?

Thinking of my own immediate family, on an average week we would have 5 of us all getting public transport to uni and work, walking through train stations, heading to pubs/clubs/sports/bars/parties/beach/cafes/restaurants/shops on the weekends. Now we are all at home, with occasional late night trips to Bunnings and Coles. We are probably in close physical proximity to 1/1000th of the people in a given week that we would have been before.

What am I missing here (other than being a retarded layman who doesn't even really understand how the R0 is derived)?
 

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
It was a different time back then, we had a dozen cases here and China was hurting. Now that demand in China is decreasing they are providing a lot of aid around the world, and that's being donated not sold. They may have an ulterior motive but it seems they are doing the right thing.
Bit worrying though that the CCP can order overseas chinese companies to do whatever they want them to do.. Wonder how many other cases there are of this happening in different fields?
 

rangersac

Likes Dirt
Wow. According to today's press briefing, Australia has conducted 178,000 tests with 1.5% positive.
USA has 53% positive tests, so have conducted close to 100,000 tests. They be in for some serious pain over there...

What am I missing here (other than being a retarded layman who doesn't even really understand how the R0 is derived)?
The only thing you are missing is that from your description you are being responsible, whereas there are plenty of fuckwits out there who aren't. For example I drove past the local playground yesterday and there wasn't any social distancing going on between the 20 odd adults there let alone the kids. Then went for a bike ride down to the local beach last night, and lo and behold a wedding was taking place. Now I am sure they had culled the guest list pretty significantly, but there was still 20 odd + people there.
 

Oddjob

Wheel size expert
....finding it hard to find masks, hand sanitiser, & gloves?


I'm not surprised and to be honest, Australia should have been doing everything in its power to help China keep this under control.

China was almost uniquely placed to essentially bring their country to a stand still and control the virus domestically. As their industrial base starts back up we and all the other countries about to face our own lock downs will be the beneficiaries of their ability to produce huge quantities of everything from PPE to respirators.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk
 

Nambra

Postmeridian
I've got a question for the crowd about the R0 value of Coronavirus - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

WHO and other organisations seem to more or less agree that the R0 of Coronavirus is between 2 and 3. An R0 below 1 would mean that the virus would naturally die out over time.

So the Australian government are presumably aiming to push the R0 of coronavirus in Aus down to some number less than 1 - the closer to zero they can get it, the faster it dies out. At the same time, a lower number comes at a higher financial cost. So they would be trying to strike some balance between the lowering the R0 and causing economic pain.

I don't quite understand how the current restrictions don't achieve an R0 below one. Surely the measures currently in place (closing all public spaces, encouraging social distancing, isolation of suspected cases etc) would lower the average amount of contact between people (and therefore transmission) by more than 2/3rds?

Thinking of my own immediate family, on an average week we would have 5 of us all getting public transport to uni and work, walking through train stations, heading to pubs/clubs/sports/bars/parties/beach/cafes/restaurants/shops on the weekends. Now we are all at home, with occasional late night trips to Bunnings and Coles. We are probably in close physical proximity to 1/1000th of the people in a given week that we would have been before.

What am I missing here (other than being a retarded layman who doesn't even really understand how the R0 is derived)?
No, you're pretty much on to it. The thing is that there is a lag between the action and the effect. We really won't know what the Ro/Re will be until this time next week. The encouraging numbers coming out of NSW suggests that they are getting Ro below 1.0 as are some other states.

Norman Swan explained it well on the 7:30 Report.
 
I've got a question for the crowd about the R0 value of Coronavirus - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

WHO and other organisations seem to more or less agree that the R0 of Coronavirus is between 2 and 3. An R0 below 1 would mean that the virus would naturally die out over time.

So the Australian government are presumably aiming to push the R0 of coronavirus in Aus down to some number less than 1 - the closer to zero they can get it, the faster it dies out. At the same time, a lower number comes at a higher financial cost. So they would be trying to strike some balance between the lowering the R0 and causing economic pain.

I don't quite understand how the current restrictions don't achieve an R0 below one. Surely the measures currently in place (closing all public spaces, encouraging social distancing, isolation of suspected cases etc) would lower the average amount of contact between people (and therefore transmission) by more than 2/3rds?

Thinking of my own immediate family, on an average week we would have 5 of us all getting public transport to uni and work, walking through train stations, heading to pubs/clubs/sports/bars/parties/beach/cafes/restaurants/shops on the weekends. Now we are all at home, with occasional late night trips to Bunnings and Coles. We are probably in close physical proximity to 1/1000th of the people in a given week that we would have been before.

What am I missing here (other than being a retarded layman who doesn't even really understand how the R0 is derived)?
I'd imagine it has to do with compliance numbers as well i.e. if 90% to 100% of the population comply with the current restrictions then we should start to approach our target R0 but if people ignore the current restrictions then our ability to reach this target becomes less likely.

361424
 

Flow-Rider

Wheel size expert
My partner runs a clinical psychology company that deals with extremely complex and vulnerable clients for other services and agencies.
She‘s seen a huge spike in self harm and overdoses in the last couple of days Amongst her clients.
The social cost is starting to show.
Depression and suicides will be an unfortunate given with people going bankrupt and a repeat of other depression times. It's a double edge sword, bringing the economy to a halt or letting people be taken by the virus. It's important for society to reach out to people that may think they're alone in these times.
 

fatboyonabike

Eats Squid
Depression and suicides will be an unfortunate given with people going bankrupt and a repeat of other depression times. It's a double edge sword, bringing the economy to a halt or letting people be taken by the virus. It's important for society to reach out to people that may think they're alone in these times.
the stats on suicide are horrific, one person every 3 hours takes their life in Australia!
imagine how the world would be if we were to action statistics like that every year like we have with CV19?..
 

Halo1

Likes Dirt
My Hibike order will be here today or tomorrow.

Already hatched a plan for it.

Got a set of disposable gloves sitting near the front door.

Plan is to lift it to the garage, spray with glen20 then open it up, remove paper package filler and let it sit open for 2-3 days. Might even pour out the contents and dump the box.

Paper packing and cardboard to the recycle, remove gloves and wash anything that touches the package or contents.

It's not so much for ze German that packed it. More the packaging and baggage handlers, plane, conveyor belts, warehouses, couriers, postie and anyone else who handled it or where its been sitting on its way from Carona central.
Even if it does not kill the virus you will have the best smelling bike for years to come. So fresh!
 
Top