COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Wow an x^6 term. I'm pretty sure they only exist in calculus textbooks.

I did a master in economics, finance and statistics. I also design and run economic models for a living.

If you use the Analysis Toolpak in Excel you would probably get a reasonable OLS formula for that data set. But it would still be a lot less sophisticated and accurate then what the CHO would be using.

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I read a lot of economic modeling on old mate covid, cjoye over at afr seems to think he is all over it but has failed miserably.. l’m no expert on this stuff, from my observation it seems that economic style modeling is excellent once the parameters/inputs are set but shithouse when estimating future projections when factoring in human behaviour.. Maybe the epidemiologist are better at predicting? They are obviously skewed to the worse case scenario..
What’s the view on how NSW is tracking? Layman view from me they catch 1 case for every 5-10 they miss.. Cases are spread our all over the place, imo not looking particularly promising only because restrictions are minimal..
 

Oddjob

Wheel size expert
I read a lot of economic modeling on old mate covid, cjoye over at afr seems to think he is all over it but has failed miserably.. l’m no expert on this stuff, from my observation it seems that economic style modeling is excellent once the parameters/inputs are set but shithouse when estimating future projections when factoring in human behaviour.. Maybe the epidemiologist are better at predicting? They are obviously skewed to the worse case scenario..
What’s the view on how NSW is tracking? Layman view from me they catch 1 case for every 5-10 they miss.. Cases are spread our all over the place, imo not looking particularly promising only because restrictions are minimal..
Models are simplifications of real world systems. The more complicated the system, and the higher the degrees of freedom, the harder it is to predict the future. And that's assuming you understand the system you are modelling - a lot of clever people misunderstood the US housing and credit markets in the GFC.

In any statistical analysis of a dataset there will be an error term. If distribution of the error term is uniform then you can make reliable models based on the dataset. For NSW I have not seen anything from NSW Health indicating a spike in infections. The only thing I have seen is some restrictions on venues in response to the Crossroads Hotel hotspot.

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Flow-Rider

Wheel size expert
Possible that’s just from contact tracing that 27yo male who tested positive after sitting near one of those women when dining out. Shows how easy it is to be a super spreader.
I would say so, I wonder how many others have contracted from the male?
 

Nambra

Postmeridian
I would say so, I wonder how many others have contracted from the male?
I believe his partner and sister in law (?) both work in aged care, which is worrying. Given the number of places these people have been to whilst positive, it would naive to think that the one case of community transmission will be the end of it.

At least Cornubia is nowhere near those places on the list, which is where I’m about to go for a ride!
 

Flow-Rider

Wheel size expert
I believe his partner and sister in law (?) both work in aged care, which is worrying. Given the number of places these people have been to whilst positive, it would naive to think that the one case of community transmission will be the end of it.

At least Cornubia is nowhere near those places on the list, which is where I’m about to go for a ride!
The Doctor's surgery and the Bunnings are only a stone's throw away from me and I actually went to the Oxley Bunnings and other shops around the area on Thursday.


Enjoy your Cornubia ride.
 

Asininedrivel

Likes Dirt
Just curious, Which media outlets initially showed their faces and which did not?
I seem to recall an SBS post about this in my newsfeed that did not have their faces.
I would be completely unsurprised if old mate rupert's media had them full front cover and background image from the get go.

Once one media outlet put the faces up, there would be little reason for other media outlets to avoid showing their faces.
As others have said, the Murdoch landfill wallpapered their front pages with it. ABC News showed them (surprisingly), The Guardian pixellated them.
We are capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time. We can be pissed off at them and rightly angry at their behaviour while also acknowledging that the reporting of it lands in a particularly fraught cultural context that media outlets should be much more cognisant of.
100%. The meedya's duty is to inform, not inflame. But when ad revenues are going down the toilet the incentive to make clickbait crap is strong.

There is increasing evidence to make an argument that more of our media should be state (read: taxpayer) owned to mitigate against this bullshit. If the masses are happy to shell out $12 a week for Netflix surely a lesser amount to our Govt. broadcaster (a la BBC funding model) isn't too obnoxious of a proposal.
 

Asininedrivel

Likes Dirt
nothing special about them...plenty of dickheads have been outed identified and been the subject of media attention.
Difference being those c***s are actively seeking publicity to push their demented agenda.

Also, GTFO the Daily Mail. You'll do less brain damage putting a power drill through your temple.
 

moorey

Cereal killer
Received this from a mate.

“Here’s the inside word.. Better stock up on dunny paper again..


Here’s what to expect...

Metropolitan Melbourne will move to stage 4 restrictions (likely 12:00am Wednesday although no confirmation yet.)
This will be a New Zealand style lockdown that will last for at least 6 weeks.
Regional Victoria (including Mitchell Shire) will move to stage 3 restrictions.
Years 10 to 12 students in Melbourne and all students in regional Victoria will return to online learning, so their is no disadvantage for students from Melbourne.
We will return to school on Monday and this will likely be our last day.
All shops/businesses will close, except supermarkets, chemists, hospitals and petrol stations & restaurants and cafes will remain open for takeaway and delivery only.
Only 1 person from a family will be allowed out of the house at any time to go to the supermarket.
No one will be able to move more than 5km from there home (including bike riding.)
All public transport will likely be shut down.
Exercise will still be permitted, provided you wear a mask.
Some abattoirs will close, so their may be a shortage of meat.
All construction work will stop.

This is the full cabinet briefing.“
 

franco cozzo

Likes Dirt
Possibly. Just sayin is all.
no worries....just trying to reassure you its baseless rumour. its literally being copy & pasted everywhere so i'd disregard it...
amateur panic/ rumour mongering, probably written by a 15 year old... i.e. its riddled with spelling & grammar mistakes and impossibilities eg. cancel PT
heres a thread on reddit from a couple hours ago, literally the same copy:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/i1ot0g
 
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